现金持有对企业经营业绩的影响—在中国经济增速下滑的背景下

发布时间：2018-01-10 12:18

本文关键词：现金持有对企业经营业绩的影响—在中国经济增速下滑的背景下　出处：《东华大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：对企业来说,现金是至关重要的资产。现金不仅对企业的经营、投资、筹资等各方面行为有重大影响,而且与企业的经营业绩密切相关。通过对现金持有的利弊进行权衡来确定合理的现金持有量,是企业一项重要的财务行为。近年来,我国经济增速下滑:2004年-2007年我国GDP增长率超过10%;2008年金融危机爆发,受其影响,2008年-2011年间GDP下滑至9%左右;2012年-2015年GDP增长率下滑至7%-8%,2015年跌破7%。我国步入经济新常态阶段,“新常态”中的“常”,意味着相对稳定。也就是说我国的经济增速在短期内不会有大幅度的高,结合这个背景,联系我国上市公司在经济增速下滑背景下现金持有的行为,分析现金持有对企业经营业绩的影响具有重要意义。本文采用规范研究与实证研究相结合的办法,研究现金持有对企业经营业绩的影响。首先对相关文献和理论进行回顾;之后,选取我国A股制造业上市公司2004年-2007年,2012年-2015年数据作为样本(考虑到2008年-2011年受金融危机影响较大,故不作为样本选取),分别对应我国经济高速增长与增速下滑两个阶段,对现金持有水平进行述性统计分析。之后,本文结合2012年-2015年经济增速下滑与2004年-2007年经济高速增长的两个阶段,从静态现金持有与动态现金持有两个角度出了以下四个假设。静态现金持有方面:假设一,在经济增速下滑背景下,现金持有与企业经营业绩呈正相关关系;假设二,在经济高速增长的背景下,企业现金持有水平与经营业绩不相关。动态现金持有方面:假设三,在经济增速下滑背景下,现金持有的变动与企业经营业绩变动呈正相关关系。假设四,在经济高速增长的背景下,现金持有的变动与企业经营业绩变动不相关。针对假设一,本文实证检验得出:在一定范围内,在经济增速下滑背景下,企业的现金持有与经营业绩显著正相关,但是超出范围的异常高额现金持有不能为企业带来经营业绩的增加。针对假设二,本文通过实证检验得出,在经济高速增长时期,现金持有与企业经营业绩不相关。针对假设三,本文通过实证检验得出:在经济增速下滑背景下,公司现金持有的增加与经营业绩增长呈正相关关系。针对假设四,本文实证检验得出,在经济高速增长时期,现金持有变动与企业经营业绩的变动不相关。最后,根据本文的研究结论,出了相应的政策建议,并指出本文的不足之处以及未来的研究展望。
[Abstract]:To the enterprise, cash is crucial not only for cash assets. The management of enterprises, investment, have a significant impact on all aspects of the financing behavior, but also closely related to the performance of an enterprise. To determine the reasonable balance of cash holdings through the pros and cons of cash holdings, is an important part of enterprise financial behavior in recent years. In our country, the decline in economic growth: 2004 -2007 China's GDP growth rate of more than 10%; in 2008 the outbreak of the financial crisis, affected by the 2008 -2011 year GDP decline to about 9%; 2012 -2015 annual GDP growth rate fell to 7%-8% in 2015, below 7%. in China entered the new economic norm, the "new normal" in "often, means relatively stable. That is to say China's economic growth in the short term will be greatly high, with this background, contact China's listed companies fell under the background of cash holding behavior in economic growth, Analysis of impact of cash holdings on business performance has important significance. This paper adopts normative research and empirical research methods, research on cash holdings impact on business performance. Firstly, the relevant literature and theory review; after the selection of China's A shares listed manufacturing companies in 2004 -2007, 2012 -2015 data as the sample (taking into account the 2008 -2011 by the greater impact of the financial crisis, it is not as sample selection), corresponding to China's rapid economic growth and growth in two stages of decline, the statistical analysis on the cash holding level. After that, combining with the 2012 -2015 year decline in economic growth and two stages of the 2004 -2007 years of rapid economic growth from the static, dynamic cash holdings and cash holdings of two point out the following four hypotheses. The static cash holdings: suppose a slowdown in economic growth under the background, Cash holdings and business performance are positively correlated; hypothesis two, in the background of rapid economic growth, corporate cash holdings and corporate performance is not related. Dynamic cash holdings: hypothesis three, decline in economic growth under the background of the change of cash holdings and business performance is positively related to changes in economy. Hypothesis four. The rapid growth of the background, not related to changes in business performance and changes in cash. According to the hypothesis, the empirical test shows that: in a certain range, the decline in economic growth under the background of corporate cash holdings significantly correlated with business performance, but the abnormal high cash holdings can not bring beyond the scope of business performance the increase of enterprises. According to the hypothesis two, through empirical test shows that, in the period of rapid economic growth, cash holdings and corporate performance is not related to this hypothesis. Three. This paper through empirical test show that the decline in economic growth under the background of the company's cash holdings and increase operating performance growth is positively correlated. According to hypothesis four, the empirical test shows that, in the period of rapid economic growth, not related to changes in cash holdings and business performance changes. Finally, according to the conclusion of this article, the corresponding the policy suggestions, and points out the deficiencies of this paper and the prospect of future research.

【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F425;F832.51

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