重庆市生产性服务业集聚对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 10:18

本文关键词：重庆市生产性服务业集聚对经济增长的影响研究　出处：《西南大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着全球服务业的快速发展,专业化程度不断提高与社会分工不断深化,生产性服务业从制造业中以外包形式分离出来,并逐渐形成产业集聚效应。生产性服务业是一种高集聚、高福射、高知识化及高就业的现代服务产业,具有较强的产业关联性和高度的人力、知识资本密集性,在提升区域产业竞争力,推动经济发展中发挥着重要作用。重庆市作为我国西部地区唯一直辖市,在2011年重庆市“十二五规划”中提出:突出提升重庆市作为国家中心城市功能,积极建设西部地区现代服务业高地,大力发展高端生产性服务业,努力提升金融、物流、交通枢纽、商贸等集聚辐射能力和综合服务水平。重庆市生产性服务业集聚现象日趋明显,可为经济增长带来新的机遇与挑战。本文研究重庆市生产性服务业集聚对经济增长的影响作用。论文在回顾生产性服务业集聚相关理论的基础上,首先分析生产性服务业集聚影响经济增长的作用机理。其次,采用描述性统计法对重庆市生产性服务业集聚现状的综合程度进行分析,分析目前重庆市生产性服务业发展中存在的现实问题,选用区位商指标从整体和分行业角度对重庆市生产性服务业集聚水平进行测度分析,并采用数据包络分析法(DEA)进行效率分析。最后,采取重庆市1997-2015年时间序列数据,构建向量自回归模型分析重庆市生产性服务业集聚对经济增长的动态影响作用,并以经典的C-D生产函数为基础,将生产性服务业各行业集聚变量作为解释变量引入到生产函数中构建计量回归模型,并从影响经济增长多因素情况下分析重庆市生产性服务业分行业集聚对经济增长的影响作用。本文通过描述性统计分析与实证分析得出以下研究结论:(1)重庆市生产性服务业整体发展比较迅速,行业队伍不断壮大,缓解了全市的就业压力。而相比于全国其他发达地区的生产性服务业发展,重庆市生产性服务业发展还存在整体规模较小、各行业发展不协调、缺乏必要的资金和专业技术人才等现实问题。(2)重庆市生产性服务业已呈现比较显著的集聚现象,其区位商值在全国属于中上水平。从分行业角度看,交通运输仓储和邮政业、金融业、房地产业的集聚度较高,各行业集聚水平差异较大,部分行业集聚水平出现较大波动。(3)重庆市生产性服务业集聚一直处于规模报酬递增趋势。从分行业角度看,除房地产业之外,重庆市其余5个行业都一直处于规模报酬递增的发展状态。且发展到2015年,重庆市生产性服务业各分行业都不存在投入冗余或产出不足的状况,可继续扩大行业规模提升集聚效率。(4)重庆市生产性服务业集聚与经济增长存在长期均衡的协整关系,在滞后1期的情况下生产性服务业集聚是经济增长的格兰杰原因。重庆市生产性服务业集聚会对经济增长产生长期的正向响应,在长期内对经济增长的贡献度会超过17.83%且会越来越显著,重庆市生产性服务业集聚确实会促进经济增长。(5)重庆市经济增长lnY和LQ1、LQ2、LQ3、LQ4、lnL、lnK、EDU、OPEN变量间存在长期均衡的协整关系,各变量在短期内对经济增长的影响作用与长期均衡过程中的作用方向是一致的。重庆市劳动力投入lnL、资本投入lnK和经济开放程度OPEN会促进经济增长,而人力资本EDU对经济增长的影响作用不显著。重庆市交通运输仓储和邮政业LQ1、金融业LQ2和房地产业LQ3的集聚能够在较大程度上促进经济增长,且都是经济增长的单向格兰杰原因。科学研究、技术服务与地质勘查业集聚LQ4在模型中对经济增长的影响作用不显著,但该行业集聚与经济增长互为双向格兰杰因果关系。基于上述研究结论,本文提出政策建议:(1)扩大生产性服务业集聚规模;(2)加强生产性服务业专业技术人才培养;(3)提升现代物流服务水平,创新发展金融业,稳妥推进房地产业;(4)优化行业内部结构,促进高技术服务业发展。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of global service industry, constantly raise the level of professionalism and the deepening social division of labor, production from manufacturing to services in the form of outsourcing is separated, and gradually formed the industrial agglomeration effect. The productive service industry is a kind of high concentration, high radiation, high knowledge and high employment modern service industry, has a strong industrial relevance and the height of the human knowledge, capital intensive, to enhance the competitiveness of regional industries, plays an important role in promoting economic development in Chongqing city. As the only municipality in the western region of China, in 2011 12th Five-Year Chongqing "plan" put forward: to highlight to enhance Chongqing city as the National Center of the city function. Actively promote the construction of modern service industry in western highlands, vigorously develop the high-end production service industry, efforts to improve the financial, logistics, transportation hub, commercial radiation ability and comprehensive service level. Chongqing producer service industry agglomeration is becoming more and more obvious, can bring new opportunities and challenges for the economic growth. This paper studies the Chongqing production service industry agglomeration effect on economic growth. Based on the review of production service industry agglomeration theory, the mechanism of the first analysis of producer services agglomeration effect of economic growth the comprehensive degree. Secondly, using the descriptive statistical method of producer service industry in Chongqing city agglomeration situation analysis, analysis of the existing problem the development of producer services in Chongqing City, the location quotient index from the overall and sub industry perspective on the production of Chongqing service industry agglomeration level analysis to measure and analysis. By using the method of data envelopment analysis (DEA) efficiency. Finally, take the time series data of 1997-2015 in Chongqing City, the construction of vector auto regression model analysis of Chongqing productive service The service industry agglomeration effect on economic growth, and the C-D of the classic production function as the foundation, the producer services industry agglomeration variables as explanatory variables into the production function in the construction of econometric model, and analysis of producer service industry in Chongqing from the impact of economic growth factors under the condition of industry agglomeration effect on the impact of economic growth. This paper draws the following conclusions through descriptive statistical analysis and Empirical Analysis: (1) the overall development of producer service industry in Chongqing is relatively rapid, industry growing, alleviate the employment pressure of the city's development. Compared to other developed regions of the national productive service industry, the development of producer services Chongqing city also has small scale, the industry development coordination, lack of funds and professional technical personnel necessary and other practical problems. (2) the production of services in Chongqing city has been positive The obvious phenomenon of agglomeration, location quotient in the country belong to the upper level. From the perspective of industry, transportation, storage and postal industry, financial industry, the higher concentration of the real estate industry, the industry agglomeration level is different, part of the industry agglomeration level was fluctuated seriously. (3) has been a trend increasing returns to scale production service industry agglomeration in Chongqing. From the industry perspective, in addition to the real estate industry of Chongqing City, the remaining 5 industries have been developing state of increasing returns to scale and development. By 2015, Chongqing's producer service sub sectors do not exist insufficient input or output redundancy situation. Can continue to expand the scale of industry agglomeration to enhance efficiency. (4) there is a long-term co integration and economic growth of Chongqing producer service industry agglomeration of producer services in the 1 period lag under the condition of industry agglomeration is the growth of the Glen Jie. Producer service industry in Chongqing has a positive response in gathering on the long-term economic growth in the long term, the contribution to the economic growth of more than 17.83% and will be more and more obvious, it can promote the economic growth of producer services agglomeration in Chongqing. (5) Chongqing city economic growth of lnY and LQ1, LQ2 LQ3, LQ4, lnL, lnK, EDU, and there are long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between OPEN variables, each variable in the short term to the direction of the effect of economic growth and long-term equilibrium process is the same. Chongqing city labor input lnL, lnK capital investment and economic openness of OPEN will promote economic growth EDU, while the human capital influence on economic growth is not significant. The Chongqing municipal transportation warehousing and postal industry LQ1, financial industry agglomeration of LQ2 and LQ3 in real estate can promote economic growth to a great extent, and is a one-way Grainger economic growth of the original For scientific research, technical services and geological prospecting industry agglomeration in LQ4 model on the effect of economic growth is not significant, but the industry agglomeration and economic growth are two-way causal relationship between Grainger. Based on the above research conclusion, this paper presents policy recommendations: (1) the expansion of productive service industry agglomeration scale; (2) strengthening professional and technical personnel of producer service training; (3) to improve the service level of modern logistics, the innovation and development of the financial industry, and steadily push forward the real estate industry; (4) optimize the internal structure of industry, promote the development of high-tech service industry.

【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719;F127

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