京津冀城市生产性服务业集聚效应的空间计量分析

发布时间：2018-01-12 21:17

本文关键词：京津冀城市生产性服务业集聚效应的空间计量分析　出处：《天津财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国的服务行业起步较晚,从整体上而言,目前服务业的水平仍相对落后于整体经济层次。生产性服务业是与工业密切联系的新兴第三产业,对于地区经济水平的影响也越来越大。对于北京,天津和河北地区而言,三地整体性发展的趋势越发明显。生产服务业的集聚程度是该区域经济发达程度的晴雨表,也关系着我国经济的良性发展。因此该地区的生产性服务业的集聚问题对我国京津冀一体化的重大战略具有深远影响。文章在理论层次探究的基础上,使用空间计量经济模型进行探究。首先,文章从概念、特征和形成原因等方面介绍了产业集聚的相关理论,从概念和分类的角度介绍了生产性服务业的相关理论,分析了国外生产性服务业的集聚情况以及集聚地的一般特征。其次,使用北京,天津和河北最新的统计数据,对京津冀地区总体以及13个地级市的经济发展情况和产业结构等概况进行了分析,用空间基尼系数测算了京津冀生产性服务业的集聚程度,并从横向和纵向两个维度对京津冀地区的经济发展层次进行探究,具有较强的时效性。再次,文章把空间和时间因素引入到面板数据的研究中,将模型由二维拓展至三维,通过构建三个空间权重矩阵以及空间面板数据模型,结合对生产性服务业可能产生影响的五个指标,对集聚程度及其影响因素进行分析。实证部分,文章根据莫兰指数确定生产性服务业集聚程度的时间变化,根据Hausman检验确定使用固定效应模型,运用MATLAB软件测度各地固定效应值,运用stata软件进行普通面板数据回归,并建立空间滞后模型进行分析。根据模型结果得出的结论为:技术创新水平,信息化水平,地区人力资本水平对于生产性服务业集聚程度呈现正相关,区域规模和政府级别对于生产性服务业集聚程度呈现负相关。结合研究结论,文章对于提升京津冀的生产性服务业提出了几点可行的政策空间。
[Abstract]:The service industry of our country starts relatively late. On the whole, the level of service industry still lags behind the whole economic level. Producer service industry is a new tertiary industry closely related to industry. The impact on regional economic levels is also growing. For Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. The trend of the overall development of the three places is more and more obvious. The degree of agglomeration of the production and service industry is a barometer of the economic development of the region. It is also related to the benign development of our economy. Therefore, the concentration of producer services in this area has a profound impact on the great strategy of the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. First of all, the paper introduces the theory of industrial agglomeration from the concept, characteristics and formation reasons. This paper introduces the related theories of producer services from the angle of concept and classification, analyzes the agglomeration situation of foreign producer services and the general characteristics of their agglomerations. Secondly, it uses Beijing. According to the latest statistics of Tianjin and Hebei, the general situation of economic development and industrial structure of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and 13 prefecture-level cities are analyzed. Using spatial Gini coefficient to calculate the concentration of producer services in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and from the horizontal and vertical dimensions to explore the level of economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, has a strong timeliness. In this paper, the spatial and temporal factors are introduced into the research of panel data, and the model is extended from two to three dimensions, and three spatial weight matrices and spatial panel data models are constructed. Combined with the five indicators of the possible impact on producer services, this paper analyzes the degree of agglomeration and its influencing factors. Empirical part, according to the Moran index to determine the producer services agglomeration degree of time change. According to Hausman test, fixed effect model is used, fixed effect value is measured by MATLAB software, and general panel data regression is carried out by stata software. According to the results of the model, the conclusion is: the level of technological innovation, the level of information technology, the level of regional human capital has a positive correlation with the concentration of producer services. There is a negative correlation between the regional scale and the level of government for the concentration of producer services. Combined with the conclusion of the study, this paper puts forward some feasible policy space for promoting producer services in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F719

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