利率双轨制下石油价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响

发布时间：2018-01-14 01:29

本文关键词：利率双轨制下石油价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响　出处：《大连理工大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：国际石油价格在现阶段波动幅度不断增大,再加上各国经济发展对石油的依赖程度不断加深,石油这一非可再生资源对一国宏观经济的影响开始变得越来越重要。现在国际石油价格的波动已经被公认为可以对全球的经济发展产生巨大的影响,因此,国际石油价格在不同时期内的剧烈波动表现也已经受到了整个世界学者的关注。当前,中国正进行到工业化和城市化发展的关键阶段,国家经济的不断发展导致了对国际石油需求的逐年增高,到2011年,我国的石油进口量已经超越美国成为世界第一大石油消费国。在传统经济学中,国际石油价格上涨,将会减少实际货币余额,利率就会上升,最终会导致实际经济的下滑,相反,油价的下降会有利于经济发展。我国早期对国际油价研究的文献也均表明国际油价上涨对我国经济增长的影响是非对称性的,但是根据数据统计,在2005年到2008年间,国际石油价格上升并未使我国产出下降,而2014年后国际油价下跌也并未给我国经济带来正面影响,这与传统经济学完全不符。经本文实证研究发现,造成这一现象的根本原因在于我国特有的利率双轨制机制所导致的货币政策效果失真。一方面,随着我国的经济发展,对石油的真实需求越来越大,而由中国需求所带动的油价成本上升的负面影响并未超越我国的实际经济增长程度,因此在短期内我国石油需求还会持续增加,我国经济产出也会有一定增幅;另一方面由于我国利率双轨制的存在,面对国际石油价格冲击,央行总是按照传统的“逆周期”方法来调节利率以达到调控经济的目的,即随着国际油价的上涨(下降),央行就会上调(下调)存款利率,但只要存在国内外利差,不论央行怎么调节利率,都只会加深当前严峻的经济形势。因此,本文的构建了一个包括宏观经济产出、广义货币供给量、利率、物价水平和国际石油价格在内的结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,着重分析石油价格冲击对我国各宏观经济变量之的影响以及在利率双轨制国情下,法定利率对当前宏观经济形势的反应与作用。在研究过程中,本文首先阐述了国际石油价格对宏观经济的传导机制,然后通过理论模型分析和实证检验相结合的方法,分析国际石油价格波动与我国宏观经济的关系。最后,基于理论和实证分析的结论,本文从中国经济实际情况出发,对国际油价波动的影响提出了若干政策建议。
[Abstract]:At this stage, the international oil price fluctuates more and more, in addition to the degree of dependence on oil for the economic development of various countries. The impact of oil, a non-renewable resource, on a country's macroeconomic is becoming more and more important. Now, the fluctuation of international oil price has been recognized as a great impact on the global economic development. The violent fluctuation of international oil price in different periods has also been concerned by scholars all over the world. At present, China is developing to the key stage of industrialization and urbanization. The continuous development of national economy has led to the increase of international oil demand year by year. By 2011, China's oil import has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest oil consumer. In traditional economics. An increase in international oil prices would reduce the real balance of money, and interest rates would rise, eventually leading to a decline in the real economy, on the contrary. The decline of oil price will be conducive to economic development. The early literature on international oil prices in China also shows that the impact of rising international oil prices on China's economic growth is asymmetric, but according to statistics. During the period from 2005 to 2008, the rise of international oil prices did not lead to a decline in China's output, and the decline in international oil prices did not have a positive impact on China's economy after 2014. This is completely inconsistent with the traditional economics. Through the empirical study, we find that the fundamental reason for this phenomenon lies in the distortion of monetary policy effect caused by the special two-track mechanism of interest rate in China. With the economic development of our country, the real demand for oil is increasing, but the negative impact of the rising cost of oil price driven by Chinese demand has not exceeded the actual economic growth of our country. Therefore, in the short term, China's oil demand will continue to increase, China's economic output will also have a certain increase; On the other hand, because of the existence of two-track interest rate system in China, in the face of the international oil price shock, the central bank always adjusts the interest rate according to the traditional "countercyclical" method to achieve the purpose of regulating and controlling the economy. That is, as international oil prices rise (decline), the central bank will raise (cut) deposit rates, but as long as there are domestic and foreign spreads, no matter how the central bank adjusts interest rates, will only deepen the current severe economic situation. This paper constructs a structural vector autoregressive model including macroeconomic output, generalized money supply, interest rate, price level and international oil price. This paper focuses on the analysis of the impact of oil price shock on the macroeconomic variables in China and the legal interest rate response to the current macroeconomic situation under the dual-track interest rate system. This paper first expounds the transmission mechanism of international oil price to macro-economy, and then through the combination of theoretical model analysis and empirical test, analyzes the relationship between international oil price fluctuation and China's macro-economy. Based on the conclusion of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the impact of international oil price fluctuation on the actual situation of China's economy.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F416.22;F764.1

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