中国低碳经济优化模型建立与分析

发布时间：2018-01-14 03:32

  本文关键词：中国低碳经济优化模型建立与分析　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 低碳经济 Granger因果 可比价“碳排”I-O模型 优化分析

【摘要】：自工业革命之后,以煤炭、石油为代表的能源的使用极大促进了世界经济的发展。但是,伴随着人类经济活动的是日益增多的二氧化碳气体的排放,近些年来“温室效应”导致的全球性气候变暖已经成为迫在眉睫的世界性环境问题。作为世界第一大的一次能源消费国、煤炭类能源生产国以及最大的二氧化碳气体排放国(美国能源信息署,2013),我国在巴黎世界气候大会上承诺于2030年以前单位碳强度较2005年降低60%左右;此外,在《十三五年规划纲要》中我国政府也提出了“十三五”期间,碳排放强度较2005年基础上降低40%-45%的目标。我国目前正面临着稳定经济增长、提高人民生活质量以及限制二氧化碳排放总量等多重挑战。正是基于这个背景,本文以低碳经济理论为基础,首先研究了我国经济增长、能源消耗与碳排量之间的动态关系,并通过计量模型进行总量预测;然后再以我国投入产出表中的部门结构为依据,从碳排总量及能耗总量控制的视角,分别以经济产出最大化、碳排放量最小化以及行业环境效率评估等为目标对我国产业部门的结构进行优化调整,为我国如何进行产业结构升级,如何从传统经济向低碳经济过度提供了科学依据和参考。首先,本文对中国碳排、能耗及经济总量的关系进行了研究。具体来说,先基于Toda-Yamamoto方法对三个变量间的线性Granger因果关系进行检验,并通过bootstrap方法对置信区间进行修正;而后再利用VAR系统将变量间的线性结构剥离,通过BDS方法对它们之间的非线性关系进行验证;最后再使用Diks-Panchenco方法对变量间的非线性因果关系进行检验。线性及非线性因果结论表明,从短期看,我国GDP与能源消费间存在着双向的Granger因果关系;碳排放也与GDP存在着双向的Granger因果关系;而能源消费是碳总量变化的Granger原因,反之结果不成立。找到三者的关系后继续对其进行量化分析。结果表明,GDP对于能源变动的作用非常大,而能源同样也对GDP的变动有着较大影响;此外,能耗量还对碳排总量变化的影响非常大。能源消费的冲击对碳排量的影响是正向的,对我国经济的影响同样也是正向的;经济增长的冲击对能源消耗与碳排放的影响路径基本一致,呈“对称”现象。综上,如果政府采取能源保守政策,的确会降低现有的二氧化碳气体的排放水平,但同时也会对我国经济的增长产生较大影响。如果单纯以降低经济增速来换取碳排量的减少,在初期有一定的效果,但是效果持续时间较短且在后期反弹明显。因此,只有在保证一定经济增速的前提下进行产业结构调整,才能真正实现我国经济健康、低碳的发展。最后,本文使用不同模型对三个变量分别进行预测,对比后找出最优结果。其次,本文对中国碳排、能耗及产业结构进行分析。主要是通过在传统投入产出表中引入行业的能耗量及碳排量数据,并以2010年为基期进行价格指数平减,得到我国2005-2012年可比价“碳排”投入产出表,并以此分析这一时期我国经济、能源与碳排间的内在结构。从2012年的结果看,二产部门对国民经济的拉动作用明显,且多以高碳排、高产出的行业为主;而三产部门除交通运输业外,其他部门的特点以低产业拉动、低碳排推动为主,但对于整体经济增长的限制较小。从2005-2012年的整体趋势看,我国能源使用量逐年递增,且以煤炭类为主,能源消耗结构变化不大。但二产各部门的能源强度呈下降趋势,而三产部门能源强度在这一时期内基本走平。说明近十年我国整体与能源相关的技术持续进步,能源利用率不断提高。从能耗系数看,无论是直接能耗系数还是综合能耗系数,排名前几位的都为第二产部门。我国二氧化碳排放总量2005-2012年间快速递增,但多数部门的二氧化碳强度呈下降趋势,说明我国经济的“低碳发展”态势总体是好的。从行业的影响力系数看,2005-2012年间多数部门的产业影响力系数和碳排影响力系数双双下降,但第三产业部门的整体影响力略有上升。无论是产业影响力还是碳排影响力,第二产业部门的拉动作用(相比社会平均水平)都要远高于第一、第三产业部门,且多以资源密集型行业为主。综上,第二产业在2005-2012年期间仍为我国的支柱产业,但第三产业对于整体经济的拉动作用已经逐步显现且有扩大趋势。通过综合考虑产业影响力与碳排影响力系数,我国应优先发展低碳排影响力的产业;推动高碳排、高产业影响这些“双高”部门的科学发展,主要通过技术方面的改进来降低这些行业的碳排;限制高碳排影响力、低产业影响力这些部门的发展,并通过产业升级和结构调整来淘汰这些落后产能。最后,基于上文的总量预测及产业结构来构建我国低碳经济的优化模型。目的是在保证现有经济增速、能耗及碳排放水平下,找寻我国2017年的最优产业结构。最优方案可以使得产出量最大,且相比基年(2012年)能源强度下降26.04%,二氧化碳强度下降48.95%。然后,在上面非限制优化模型的基础上继续对碳排总量加入政策性“减排”条件。相比上面的优化结果,在满足最低限度经济增长的前提下,新方案可以使碳排总量再下降约22%。接着又基于环境DEA模型对我国41个部门的环境绩效进行了测评,建立动态环境效率指数并进行分解,发现2005-2012年间,我国多数行业部门是非环境DEA有效的,其主要问题出在能源投入量上,部分行业的能源投入过大,能源消耗结构不合理。此外,第二产业部门对于我国整体环境效率影响最大,2005-2007年阶段其效率不足的主要原因在于技术水平较低;而2007年后其原因出在资源配置效率低下。2005-2012年间,影响三产服务业部门环境效率的主要原因在于投入资源的配置效率较低。决策者可以根据碳排量与经济增速的关系,结合实际情况,拟定我国产业规划的最优方案。同时也可以根据部门DEA效率,改进各行业的环境绩效水平。综合上述研究结果,本文提出相应的政策建议并对后续研究进行展望。
[Abstract]:Since the industrial revolution, with coal, the use of oil as the representative of the energy greatly promoted the development of the world economy. However, with the human economic activity is increasing carbon dioxide emissions, global warming in recent years, the "greenhouse effect" lead has become a worldwide environmental problem as an energy imminent. The world's largest consumer of energy, coal production country and the largest emitter of carbon dioxide (US energy information administration, 2013), China promised in 2030 to 2005 before the unit carbon intensity is reduced by about 60% in the World Conference on climate in Paris; in addition, in the "13th Five-Year Year Plan" in our government put forward the "13th Five-Year" period, reduce the carbon emission intensity of 40%-45% target is based on the 2005. China is facing a stable economic growth, improve people's quality of life and Limit the total carbon dioxide emissions and other multiple challenges. It is based on this background, this paper is based on the theory of low carbon economy, firstly, China's economic growth, the dynamic relationship between energy consumption and carbon emissions, and through the econometric model predicts the total amount; then the output table of the Department structure of investment in China on the basis of from the total energy consumption and carbon emission control perspective, with the maximum economic output, carbon emissions minimization and industry environmental efficiency evaluation for the target to adjust and optimize the structure of China's industrial sector, for our country how to upgrade the industrial structure, from the traditional economy to a low carbon economy over provided scientific basis and reference. Firstly, the relationship between energy consumption and carbon emission Chinese, total economic output is studied. Specifically, based on the Toda-Yamamoto method of linear Granger causality between the three variables The relationship between test and the confidence interval was modified by bootstrap method; and then use the VAR system will be stripped of linear structure between the variables, through the BDS method to verify the nonlinear relation between them; finally, use the Diks-Panchenco method to test the variables of nonlinear causality. Linear and nonlinear causal conclusions show that from the short term, China's energy consumption between GDP and two-way Granger causality between carbon emissions and GDP; there is a bidirectional Granger causality; but energy consumption is the total amount of carbon changes Granger causes, and results are not established. Find the relationship of the three to make quantitative analysis on it. The results show that GDP is very important to change the role of energy, but also energy has great influence on the changes of GDP; in addition, energy consumption also impact on carbon emission of energy consumption is very large. The impact of carbon emissions is positive, the impact on China's economy is also positive; the path of economic growth impact on energy consumption and carbon emissions are basically the same, a "symmetric" phenomenon. Therefore, if the government takes the energy conservative policy will indeed reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide levels at the same time, but also has a great impact on the economic growth of our country. If only to reduce economic growth for reducing carbon emissions, there is a certain effect in the early, but the effect lasted for a short time and in the late rebound significantly. Therefore, only to ensure that the adjustment of industrial structure under the premise of economic growth, in order to to realize China's healthy economic development, low carbon. At last, this paper uses different models of three variables were predicted, compared to find the optimal results. Secondly, this paper on China's carbon emissions, energy consumption Analysis of the industrial structure. And mainly through the energy consumption and carbon emissions in the industry data into the traditional input-output table, and in 2010 for the base period price deflator index, China's 2005-2012 value of "carbon emissions" input-output table, and analyzes China's economy during this period, the internal structure of energy with the carbon emissions from 2012. The results show that the pulling effect of the second Department of the national economy is obvious, and with high carbon, high yield and production industries; three departments in the transportation industry, the characteristics of other departments with low industry driven, low carbon push based, but for the whole economy the limitation of growth is small. From the overall trend of 2005-2012 years, China's energy consumption increased year by year, and the coal based energy consumption structure, little change. But the energy intensity of each department stage decreased, while the three production department of strong energy In this period basically go flat. Nearly ten years of China's overall energy related technology continues to progress, and constantly improve the utilization rate of energy. From the energy consumption coefficient, both direct energy consumption coefficient or the comprehensive energy consumption coefficient, ranked as the second sector. Two of China's carbon emissions the total amount of 2005-2012 increased rapidly, but most sectors of the carbon intensity decreased, indicating that China's economic "low-carbon development" the overall trend is good. From the influence factor of the industry, industrial influence coefficient and carbon during 2005-2012 most sector row influence coefficient both declined, but the overall impact of third sectors rose slightly either influence or industrial carbon emissions influence, pulling effect of second sectors (compared to the average level of society) are far higher than the first, the third industry sectors, but with more resource intensive The main industry. To sum up the second industry in the period of 2005-2012 is still the pillar industry of our country, but the third industry driven by the overall economy has gradually emerged and has a tendency to expand. By considering the influence of industrial carbon emission and the influence coefficient, China should give priority to the development of low carbon power industry; promote the high carbon emissions. These high industry affecting the scientific development of "double high" sector, mainly through the improvement of the technical aspects of the industry to reduce the carbon emission limits; high carbon emissions influence the development of low industry influence in these sectors, and through industrial upgrading and structural adjustment to eliminate the backward production capacity. Finally, to construct an optimization model of low carbon economy the country's total forecast and industrial structure. Based on the above purpose is to ensure that the current economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emission level, find the optimal industrial structure of our country in 2017. The most optimal solution Can make the maximum output, and compared to the base year (2012) the decline in energy intensity 26.04%, carbon intensity decreased 48.95%. and then in the above basis limit on the optimization model of carbon emission to join the policy of "reduction" conditions. Compared with the optimization results above, in order to meet the minimum economic growth under the new scheme. Can make the carbon emission and then decreased about 22%. then based on environmental DEA model is evaluated on the 41 departments of our country environmental performance, establish the dynamic index of environmental efficiency and decomposed, found during 2005-2012, China's number of sectors is non DEA effective, the main problem lies in the amount of energy input. Part of the energy industry investment is too large, the energy consumption structure is not reasonable. In addition, the second sector has the greatest impact on the overall efficiency of China's environment, the main reason of 2005-2007 phase of its lack of efficiency Is the low level of technology; and after 2007 the reason between inefficient allocation of resources at.2005-2012, main factors affecting the environmental efficiency of three production services sector is in the allocation of resources and low efficiency. Decision makers can according to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, combined with the actual situation, the optimal plan of China's industrial planning at the same time. Also according to the Department of DEA efficiency, improved environmental performance level of each industry. Based on the above research results, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations and outlook for the follow-up study.

【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124.5
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本文编号：1421861