出口导向战略对日本经济的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 17:03

本文关键词：出口导向战略对日本经济的影响研究　出处：《中国青年政治学院》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：日本经济是世界经济极具代表性的一部分,不论20世纪的经济奇迹还是20世纪90年代的低迷都极具研究价值,因为中日经济的高度相关,研究日本经济也可以为研究中国经济提供有益借鉴。日本作为二战法西斯战败国,在确立了出口导向战略后迅速实现了经济的重新崛起,并在20世纪60年代末成功越顶成为仅次于美国的资本主义第二大国,显然这其中的原因十分值得探讨学习,日本实施出口导向战略的成功经验表明了工业化未必需要建立在内向战略的基础上,出口导向战略对相对落后国家以及国内市场规模狭小国家的意义十分重大。但是值得警惕的是出口导向战略虽然能带来经济增长,长期偏向于出口优先、生产优先却可能带来贸易摩擦、资产泡沫化等不利的影响。本文利用统计数据和模型推演验证了扩大出口对国内市场狭小国家的意义,明确了日本实施出口导向战略的国内外优势条件,按日本的不同的发展阶段分别考查了三个阶段的策略重点与特点,分别是1945年至1955年的战后恢复期,1955年至1974年的高速增长期,1974年至1990年的低速增长期,详细分析了出口导向战略对日本经济造成的影响。实证部分本文利用1962年至2004年日本的出口数据对日本资本生产率做了线性回归分析,利用1955至2010年的统计数据,选择了日本国内外8个影响市场需求规模的因素作为解释变量,资本生产率作为被解释变量,并对变量进行了无量纲化处理,进行了多元回归分析,得到结论:日本的出口规模与日本资本生产率分别都呈现出正相关关系,海外市场需求规模因素对日本资本生产率的影响要大于国内市场因素,证明了出口导向战略对日本经济的重要作用。
[Abstract]:The Japanese economy is a representative part of the world economy. Both the economic miracle in 20th century and the downturn in 1990s are of great value because of the high correlation between the Chinese and Japanese economies. The study of Japanese economy can also provide a useful reference for the study of Chinese economy. As a defeated country of fascism in World War II, Japan quickly realized its economic re-emergence after establishing the export-oriented strategy. At the end of 1960s, it became the second largest capitalist country after the United States. Obviously, the reasons are worth studying. Japan's successful experience with export-oriented strategies shows that industrialization does not necessarily need to be based on an introverted strategy. Export-oriented strategy is of great significance to relatively backward countries and countries with a small domestic market, but it is worth vigilance that although export-oriented strategies can bring economic growth, they tend to give priority to exports for a long time. Production priority may bring adverse effects such as trade friction, asset bubble, etc. This paper uses statistical data and model extrapolation to verify the significance of expanding exports to countries with small domestic markets. This paper clarifies the domestic and foreign advantages of Japan's export-oriented strategy, and examines the strategic focus and characteristics of the three stages according to the different stages of Japan's development. They are the postwar recovery period from 1945 to 1955, the high-speed growth period from 1955 to 1955, and the low-speed growth period from 1955 to 1955. The paper makes a detailed analysis of the impact of export-oriented strategy on Japan's economy. The empirical part makes a linear regression analysis of Japan's capital productivity using Japanese export data from 1962 to 2004. Based on the statistical data from 1955 to 2010, eight factors affecting the scale of market demand are selected as explanatory variables, and capital productivity as explained variables. By dimensionless treatment of variables and multivariate regression analysis, it is concluded that there is a positive correlation between Japan's export scale and Japanese capital productivity. The influence of demand scale on Japanese capital productivity is greater than that of domestic market, which proves that export-oriented strategy plays an important role in Japanese economy.
【学位授予单位】：中国青年政治学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F131.3;F753.13

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