重庆市农地非农化时空动态演进与形成机理研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 03:25

  本文关键词：重庆市农地非农化时空动态演进与形成机理研究　出处：《西南大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 农地非农化 时空动态演进 形成机理 重庆市

【摘要】：自2014年起,受全球经济复苏缓慢及国内房地产市场低迷等多种不利因素影响,中国经济发展进入“增速放缓”的新常态,实现资源集约利用与构建经济持续健康增长新机制是现阶段中国经济发展需要解决的核心问题。改革开放以来,中国城镇化成绩斐然,城镇化水平从1978年的17.92%上升到2015年的56.10%,年均增长1.03个百分点。农地非农化现象作为城镇化过程中的必然产物,为中国的工业化和城镇化提供了强力支撑,土地的“宽供应”和“高消耗”保障了工业化和城镇化的快速推进,但同时也造成建设用地低效利用、优质农地大量流失、生态环境退化及社会不稳定因素增加等一系列现实问题。伴随社会经济发展、城镇扩张,非农要素在空间上的不断集聚,农地非农化现象在城市边缘地区表现尤为活跃。而农地非农化水平时空分布差异则映射出区域自然本底条件、社会经济发展水平及其他关联因素在空间上的不断重组和异化。掌握区域农地非农化时空动态演进与形成机理,科学管控农地非农化进程,是促进经济发展过程中自然与人文可持续互动的重要手段。目前,系统全面研究重庆市农地非农化问题的文献尚不多见。重庆市兼具大城市、大农村、大山区、大库区特征,近年来,经济高速增长、城镇化快速推进,农地非农化时空分布差异显著、变化剧烈、影响广泛。本文在文献分析评述和相关概念内涵深入挖掘基础上,基于资源环境统计理论和分析视角,将统计学计量模型融入到地理学时空探索中,借助SPSS、Eviews、Matalab、ArcGIS及Maxdeadea solver pro等数据和空间统计分析软件平台,应用Dagum基尼系数模型、非参数Kernel密度估计、地理探测器、协整和因果检验、超效率SBM模型等研究方法,从“数量”和“质量”角度,对重庆市不同阶段农地非农化水平和效率时空动态演进规律进行分析,重点围绕农地非农化效率测算及损失、农地非农化投入与经济增长的多变量互动关系等问题,深入刻画和剖析重庆市及所属各区域农地非农化时空动态演进与形成机理,构建了差别化的农地非农化科学管控策略。以期为地方相关部门制定政策、规划及战略提供科学依据和参考,促进区域土地资源高效利用和社会经济健康可持续发展。论文研究内容与主要结论包括:首先,从“数量”角度,借助arcgis软件平台,运用dagum基尼系数和非参数kernel密度估计定量测算研究区农地非农化水平空间非均衡程度及动态演进,并对农地非农化水平空间非均衡进行解构分析。结果表明:(1)重庆市农地非农化水平的时空动态地域性差异特征明显,呈现以区域Ⅰ为中心,区域Ⅱ为一圈,区域Ⅲ和区域Ⅳ为外围的“中心——外围”空间分异格局;(2)重庆市农地非农化水平分布表现出空间高度非均衡特征,其空间非均衡程度在研究时段内呈现出明显的w型波浪变化形态,地区间差距仍是导致重庆市农地非农化水平空间非均衡形成的主因;(3)伴随区域农地非农化水平不断上升,其地区间差距呈扩大态势。其次,从“质量”角度,本文在重点考虑农地非农化过程中对环境扰动的情况下,构建了包含经济、社会、生态在内的全面投入、期望产出与非期望产出指标体系,利用超效率sbm模型对研究区37个决策单元农地非农化效率进行客观、科学、合理和全面评估,并深入分析农地非农化效率损失的原因。测算结果表明:(1)2004—2013年重庆市农地非农化效率随时间呈现出波动性起伏,且决策单元效率空间分布不均匀、差异显著,整体水平亟待改善;(2)从投入与产出的冗余来看,引致各决策单元农地非农化效率损失的原因呈现多样性,主要包括农地非农化数量投入冗余、非期望产出过量、投入要素不匹配、期望产出不足;(3)通过交叉对比分析发现,农地非农化数量投入冗余和土地利用过程中外部不经济性是导致重庆市农地非农化效率损失两个最重要的因素,农地非农化进程中资源和环境存在较大节约和保护空间。提高资源的利用效率、降低农地非农化的过度消耗、加大环境保护投入和治理环境污染力度成为提高区域农地非农化效率的重要途径。第三,由于农地非农化效率损失的主因是数量投入冗余,因此还需从数量角度回溯和进一步挖掘重庆市及不同区域农地非农化水平形成机理。本文采用地理探测器模型,从地理空间视角对区域农地非农化水平影响因素进行定量研究,结果表明:(1)要素禀赋、经济发展水平、社会发展状况及政策制度环境分别是影响研究区农地非农化水平空间分异的基础条件、内在动力、中坚力量和外在条件;(2)影响不同区域农地非农化水平的主导因素具有显著差异性:区域Ⅰ的主导因素为区位优势、非农产业要素和人口的空间集聚,区域Ⅱ的主导因素是第二产业的快速发展和非农人口集聚;区域Ⅲ和区域Ⅳ主要受区位、地形、路网密度和产业结构趋同、产业基础薄弱等自然和社会因素制约,农地非农化进程主要表现为政策驱动下的城镇化推动。第四,由于经济增长是影响研究区农地非农化水平空间分异的内在动力与核心要素,故需进一步厘清农地非农化投入与经济增长之间互动机理。本文将资本投入、劳动力投入作为中介变量引入基于生产函数的多变量因果关系研究模型,分析重庆市农地非农化投入与经济增长之间的长短期因果关系,经过规范的计量经济方法检验和实证分析,结果表明:(1)重庆市农地非农化数量(土地)、二三产业资本存量(资本)、二三产业劳动力投入(劳动力)与二三产业产值(经济增长)存在长期均衡稳定的协整关系;(2)短期内,当显著性水平为0.05时,农地非农化投入与二三产业资本存量存在双向因果关系,与经济增长不存在单向或双向因果关系,农地非农化投入并不能直接推动重庆市经济的增长,其对于经济增长的影响具有一定的传滞性,研究区经济增长主要是依靠二三产业资本存量投入和二三产业劳动力投入推动;(3)从长期因果关系检验来看,当显著性水平为0.05时,由于建设和产业发展周期滞后影响,只存在从经济增长到农地非农化投入的单向因果关系。因此,从长短期来看,农地非农化投入对重庆市地区经济的快速增长并不存在直接因果关系。基于上述研究结论,为实现重庆市农地非农化合理管控前提下经济持续健康增长目标,需从“数量”和“质量”角度,综合考虑研究区农地非农化水平与效率的时空动态演进规律、影响不同区域农地非农化水平空间分异的主导因素及农地非农化投入与经济增长之间的互动关系。据此,提出六项具体措施:因地制宜实行差别化的区域农地非农化管控政策;摒弃固有的计划经济思维习惯,规范政府在资源配置中的行为;打破地方政府“土地财政”依赖,多渠道融资破解资金瓶颈难题;积极推进新型城镇化,促进农民就地城镇化;地方政府加大对“三农”投入,缩小城乡之间差距;转变经济增长方式,推动供给侧改革实现土地资源集约利用。论文可能的创新点包括:(1)将统计学计量模型融入到地理学时空探索中,实现对重庆市农地非农化水平时空动态演进与形成机理的定性、定量与定位分析有效结合。采用计量经济模型—dagum基尼系数和非参数kernel密度估计,分析重庆市农地非农化水平时空动态演进过程及空间非均衡特征,将影响农地非农化水平的自然条件和宏观社会经济等因素固化到地理空间,并运用空间计量分析模型——地理探测器对重庆市及不同区域农地非农化水平影响因素的决定力进行定量分析,打破了现有研究中影响因素决定力在空间分布上是均质的假设,拓宽了农地非农化形成机理的研究视角,丰富了农地非农化的研究内容;(2)进一步挖掘了农地非农化效率内涵,注重农地非农化进程中对社会和环境的影响,构建了一种包含投入、期望产出与非期望产出的新型农地非农化效率评价指标体系,产出指标选取涵盖经济、社会、环境三个维度,运用超效率SBM模型考察了重庆市37个决策单元农地非农化效率的时空演化特征,弥补了现有研究忽略社会产出和环境非期望产出的局限,克服了传统DEA模型无法对效率有效的决策单元进行再排序的缺陷,对于其他区域农地非农化效率评估具有一定的借鉴意义;(3)将资本投入和劳动力投入作为中介变量引入基于生产函数的多变量因果关系研究模型,转变了现有研究探讨农地非农化化与经济增长之间因果关系时多基于双变量的思路,在研究思路上具有一定的探索性。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, affected by the global economic recovery is slow and the domestic real estate market downturn and other unfavorable factors, Chinese economic development has entered a new normal slowdown ", realize the intensive utilization of resources and the construction of the sustained and healthy economic growth mechanism is the core issue at the present stage China economic development need to be solved. Since the reform and opening up, Chinese town of success, the level of urbanization increased from 17.92% in 1978 to 56.10% in 2015, an average annual growth rate of 1.03 percentage points. The farmland conversion phenomenon in the process of urbanization as the inevitable product, providing strong support for the China of industrialization and urbanization, the land of the" wide supply "and" high consumption "to protect the rapid advance industrialization and urbanization, but also caused the construction of land use efficiency, the loss of a large number of high-quality agricultural land, ecological environment degradation and increase social instability and a series of now The real problem with the social and economic development, urban expansion, non-agricultural elements in the space of continuous agglomeration, farmland conversion phenomenon at the edge of the city area is particularly active. While the farmland non agriculturalization level difference is reflected in the temporal and spatial distribution of regional natural background conditions, and other related factors of economic and social development level unceasing reorganization and alienation in space the area of farmland. Grasp the space-time dynamic evolution and conversion mechanism, the scientific management of the process of farmland conversion, is an important means to promote sustainable natural and human interaction in the process of economic development. At present, systematic and comprehensive study of Chongqing city land conversion in the literature is rare. Chongqing city has the big city, large rural areas, mountains area, large reservoir characteristics, in recent years, rapid economic growth, rapid urbanization, farmland conversion distribution difference significantly, change, influence widely. In this paper Analysis of the connotation and related concepts on offer in-depth mining based on resources and environment statistics theory and analysis based on the perspective of the statistical measurement model into geography space exploration, with the help of SPSS, Eviews, Matalab, ArcGIS and Maxdeadea solver pro data and spatial statistical analysis software platform, Dagum application of Gini coefficient model, nonparametric density estimation Kernel geography, detector, cointegration and Granger causality test, the super efficiency SBM model and other research methods, from the "quantity" and "quality" view of Chongqing in different stage of farmland conversion and space-time dynamic evolution level of efficiency analysis, the focus on farmland loss calculation and conversion efficiency, non agriculturalization of farmland input and economic growth multivariable interaction problems, and in-depth characterization of Chongqing City, and the area of farmland conversion, space-time dynamic evolution and formation mechanism, construct the difference The scientific management strategy of non agriculturalization of farmland. In order to make policies for the local relevant departments, planning and strategy to provide a scientific basis and reference, to promote the efficient use of regional land resources and the sustainable development of social and economic health. Research contents and main conclusions are as follows: firstly, from the angle of "quantity", with the help of ArcGIS software, using dagum Gini kernel coefficient and non parametric density estimation of quantitative calculation on the farmland region of non agriculturalization level space unbalanced degree and dynamic evolution, and the farmland conversion level of non balanced deconstruction analysis. The results showed that: (1) temporal and spatial dynamics of regional differences of land conversion in Chongqing city level characteristics, present in region I as the center region II is a circle, region III and IV was peripheral region "core periphery" spatial pattern; (2) Chongqing farmland conversion level distribution show space Highly unbalanced characteristics, the equilibrium degree appears w wave shape changes significantly during the study period of the space, the gap between regions is still in Chongqing city farmland conversion level due to unbalanced spatial form; (3) with regional land conversion levels rise, the gap between regions has been broadened. Secondly, from the perspective of "quality", this paper focus on the farmland conversion in the process of environmental disturbance on the case, which contains economic, social, ecological, comprehensive investment, expected output and non expected output index system, using the super efficiency SBM model of the 37 decision making unit farmland study area conversion efficiency objective. The scientific, reasonable and comprehensive assessment, and in-depth analysis of the reasons of farmland conversion efficiency loss. The results showed that: (1) 2004 - 2013 in Chongqing City, farmland conversion efficiency with time is the volatility of ups and downs, and Decision making unit efficiency of spatial distribution is not uniform, significant differences, the overall level should be improved; (2) from the redundant input and output, the reason of each decision making unit farmland conversion efficiency loss caused by diversity, including the number of non-agricultural land input redundancy, undesirableoutputs excess input does not match the expected output deficiency; (3) through cross comparison and analysis found that the number of non-agricultural land input and land use external diseconomy is the result of Chongqing farmland conversion efficiency loss of two of the most important factors, there is a big space saving and protection of resources and environment in the process of farmland conversion. Improve resource utilization efficiency, reduce farmland the excessive consumption of non agriculture, increase investment in environmental protection and pollution control efforts to become an important way to improve regional land conversion efficiency. Third, due to land conversion The main reason is the loss of efficiency number of input redundancy, so we need to backtrack and further excavation in Chongqing city and different areas of farmland conversion level formation mechanism in terms of quantity. This paper uses geographic detector model, quantitative research, from the perspective of geographical space regional farmland conversion factors influence the level of results showed that: (1) the factor endowment, economic development the level of development and the policy system of social environment is the basic condition of the study area is farmland conversion level spatial difference of intrinsic motivation, backbone and external conditions; (2) the leading factors influencing the different areas of farmland conversion level has significant difference: the dominant factor for the area I regional advantages, non-agricultural industries the elements and the spatial concentration of population, the dominant factor is the rapid development of the regional industry agglomeration and the non-agricultural population of second; Area III and Region IV is mainly affected by the location. The shape, density of road network and the convergence of industrial structure restricts the weak industrial base and other natural and social factors, the process of farmland conversion is mainly driven by the policy of promoting urbanization. Fourth, because economic growth is the influence of farmland internal driving force and core elements of non-agricultural level spatial differentiation, so it is necessary to further clarify the farmland the interaction mechanism between agricultural investment and economic growth. In this paper, capital investment, labor input as intermediary variables into a multivariate study of causal model based on production function, analysis of Chongqing city farmland long-term causal relationship between agricultural investment and economic growth, through econometric method standard test and empirical analysis, results showed that: (1 Chongqing city) the number of non-agricultural land (land), two or three industrial capital (capital), the two or three industry labor (labor) and the output of the two or three industry (Economic Growth) cointegration relationship exists between a stable long-run equilibrium; (2) in the short term, when the significant level is 0.05, there is a two-way causal relationship between agricultural investment and the two or three industry capital stock of farmland, there is no one-way or two-way causal relationship with economic growth, farmland conversion investment does not directly promote the economic growth of Chongqing city. It has passed a certain lag for economic growth, economic growth in this area is mainly rely on the two or three industry and the two or three industry capital investment to promote labor input; (3) from the long-term causality test, when the significant level is 0.05, because of the construction and industrial development cycle lagged effects exist only to farmland conversion into unidirectional causality from economic growth. Therefore, from the long-term view, agricultural investment for rapid economic growth in Chongqing city there is no direct causal relationship based on farmland. The conclusion of the study, for the realization of Chongqing farmland conversion under the premise of reasonable control of the sustained and healthy economic growth target, from the "quantity" and "quality" point of view, considering the study area of farmland conversion level and efficiency of the space-time dynamic evolution rule, the dominant factors influencing regional land conversion level spatial differentiation and farmland the interactive relationship between agricultural investment and economic growth. Accordingly, put forward six specific measures: to implement differentiated regional farmland conversion control policy; abandon the inherent planned economy thinking habits, regulate the behavior of the government in the allocation of resources; to break the local government land finance dependence, the bottleneck of financing to crack financial problems; actively promote the new urbanization, promoting farmers in situ urbanization; local government to increase the "three rural" investment, narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas; the transformation of the economic growth The supply side reform implementation, promote the intensive use of land resources. The possible innovation of this paper includes: (1) the statistical measurement model into geography space exploration, the space-time dynamic evolution of qualitative agriculture level and formation mechanism of farmland in Chongqing City, the effective combination of the quantitative and positioning analysis econometric model dagum Gini. Coefficient and non parametric density estimation using kernel, analysis of Chongqing city land conversion level space-time dynamic evolution and non balanced characteristics will affect the farmland conversion level of natural conditions and social economic factors such as macro curing to the geographical space, and using spatial econometric analysis model: geographical detector in Chongqing city and different areas of farmland decision force agricultural level of the influence factors of quantitative analysis, breaking the existing research factors determine the force effect on the spatial distribution is homogeneous hypothesis, Broaden the research perspective of farmland conversion mechanism, enrich the research content of land conversion; (2) to further tap the connotation of farmland conversion efficiency, pay attention to farmland influence on society and the environment in the process of urbanization, the construction of a new farmland includes input, output and expected non expected output non evaluation index system conversion efficiency, output indicators covering economic, social and environment in three dimensions, using super efficiency SBM model to examine the 37 decision making unit land conversion efficiency of Chongqing City, the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics, make up the existing research output and ignore the social environment undesirableoutputs limitations, to overcome the traditional DEA model can not be defects sort of decision making unit efficiency, the conversion efficiency evaluation has certain reference significance to other non farmland area; (3) the capital investment and labor input as the intermediary variable A multivariate causality model based on production function is introduced. The transformation of existing research on the causal relationship between farmland conversion and economic growth is based on the idea of two variables. It has certain explorations in research thinking.

【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F321.1
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本文编号：1426601