天津市失业风险预警系统研究

发布时间：2018-01-16 10:20

本文关键词：天津市失业风险预警系统研究　出处：《天津理工大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着天津市经济增长和产业结构的不断调整,失业群体成为当前政府关注的重要对象,失业人口也不断增加。天津市各区,县人民政府尚未建立失业监测预警制度,因此必须建立失业预警制度。确定合理的失业调控目标,运用各种手段来控制失业的规模,将本市失业情况控制在一个合理的范围之内。本文首先通过问卷调查和统计分析来研究天津市目前的失业状况和就业工作面临的问题。然后通过帕森斯功能主义理论来指导失业风险预警系统的建立,根据社会系统论来解释与社会系统与失业预警系统之间的关联,并通过功能分析范式AGIL功能分析框架来解释失业风险预警系统,并提出了失业风险预警系统的功能模块。分别是失业风险预警信息采集模块、失业风险预警指标体系模块、失业风险预警预测模型模块、失业风险预警警报模块。通过各模块建立起失业风险预警系统各子系统,这是根据现代社会预警理论和方法下实现的一套对失业进行预测、报警的管理系统。本文最后提出了相关对策,如促进一体化机制发展,完善劳动力市场、建立天津市失业预警专家委员会、完善社会保障制度、提升就业质量,鼓励大众创业以及依托京津冀一体化,发展第三产业来应对失业问题。失业预警系统的建立能够有效的调整经济发展过程中出现的高失业率问题,在建立统一完善的劳动力市场和健全城乡社会保障体系中有着不可替代的作用。建立失业风险预警系统可以完善失业人口的调查统计制度,更好的把握当前劳动力供求状况,这是目前应对失业问题的有效制度建设。
[Abstract]:With the economic growth and continuous adjustment of the industrial structure of Tianjin, the unemployed group has become an important object of the government's attention, and the number of unemployed people is also increasing. The county people's government has not established the unemployment monitoring and warning system, so it is necessary to establish the unemployment warning system, to determine the reasonable target of unemployment regulation and control, to use various means to control the scale of unemployment. Firstly, this paper studies the current unemployment situation and employment problems in Tianjin through questionnaire survey and statistical analysis. Then, through Parsons functionalism, we study the unemployment situation in Tianjin. Theory to guide the establishment of unemployment risk warning system. According to the social system theory to explain the relationship between the social system and the unemployment warning system, and to explain the unemployment risk early warning system through the functional analysis paradigm AGIL functional analysis framework. And put forward the function module of the early warning system of unemployment risk, which are the collection module of the early warning information of unemployment risk, the module of the early warning index system of unemployment risk, the module of early warning and forecasting model of unemployment risk respectively. Unemployment risk alarm module. Through each module to establish the unemployment risk warning system subsystems, which is based on the modern social early warning theory and methods to achieve a set of unemployment prediction. Finally, this paper puts forward the relevant countermeasures, such as promoting the development of integrated mechanism, perfecting the labor market, establishing Tianjin unemployment early warning expert committee, perfecting the social security system, and improving the quality of employment. Encourage mass entrepreneurship and rely on the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei to develop the tertiary industry to deal with unemployment. The establishment of unemployment warning system can effectively adjust the high unemployment rate in the process of economic development. In the establishment of a unified and perfect labor market and improve the urban and rural social security system plays an irreplaceable role. The establishment of unemployment risk warning system can improve the investigation and statistics system of the unemployed population. Better grasp the current situation of labor supply and demand, this is the current effective system to deal with unemployment.
【学位授予单位】：天津理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F249.27

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