我国农村居民消费对经济增长的非线性影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 16:56

本文关键词： 农村居民消费经济增长面板平滑转换回归模型　出处：《湖南大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：消费、投资与出口通常被称作拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”。其中,消费在拉动经济增长中起着基础性的作用。目前,我国经济发展进入“新常态”,在刺激经济增长的三驾马车中,投资正在放缓,对外出口增长乏力,因此通过采取正确的消费政策,提振消费,是保持国民经济结构的顺利过渡和维持我国经济中高速发展的重要保证。可是长期以来,我国消费增长的主力军在城市,农村居民消费明显滞后,这影响着中国整体消费水平的增长。而我国拥有6.18亿的农村居民,占总人口的45.23%,这说明农村消费市场是一个充满无限潜力的消费市场。而影响农村居民消费水平的因素众多,通货膨胀则是其中一个重要的影响因素。因此,在城镇居民消费当前相对饱和的情况下,农村居民消费对经济发展的重要作用会不断凸显,如何降低通货膨胀对农村居民消费的影响,启动并促进农村居民消费将成为拉动经济增长的关键。在以上背景下,本文首先阐述了通货膨胀影响居民消费以及居民消费对经济增长产生作用的机理。然后,运用大量统计数据和图表,从多方面对我国农村居民消费的现状进行分析,并将其与城镇居民消费进行对比,得出农村居民消费的总体特征。同时分别就投资、消费与净出口和农村居民消费与城镇居民消费对经济增长的拉动作用进行比对,得出我国消费对经济增长的拉动作用仍有待增强,农村居民消费尤其不足。接着,实证分析部分选取了我国30个省市1994-2014年的面板数据,运用面板数据平滑转换回归模型,考察我国农村居民消费与经济增长之间的非线性关系,得出以下几点结论：(1)农村居民消费与经济增长之间存在非线性关系,随着通货膨胀的上升,农村居民消费对经济增长的影响逐渐变小,不利于促进经济的增长,应将通货膨胀率控制在3.13%以内；(2)目前我国农村居民消费对经济增长的贡献度偏小,且受通货膨胀的影响程度较大。最后,根据理论与实证分析结果,提出如何大力发展农村居民消费,并有效控制通货膨胀的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Consumption, investment and export are usually referred to as the "troika" to stimulate economic growth. Among them, consumption plays a fundamental role in stimulating economic growth. At present, China's economic development has entered a "new normal". In the troika that stimulates economic growth, investment is slowing and export growth is weak, thus boosting consumption by adopting the right consumer policies. It is an important guarantee to maintain the smooth transition of the national economic structure and maintain the rapid development of our economy. However, for a long time, the main force of consumption growth in our country is in the city, and the consumption of rural residents is obviously lagging behind. This affects the growth of China's overall consumption level. China has 618 million rural residents, accounting for 45.23% of the total population. This shows that the rural consumer market is a consumer market full of unlimited potential, and there are many factors that affect the consumption level of rural residents, and inflation is one of the important factors. Under the condition that the consumption of urban residents is relatively saturated at present, the important role of rural residents' consumption on economic development will continue to be highlighted, how to reduce the impact of inflation on rural residents' consumption. Starting and promoting the consumption of rural residents will become the key to stimulate economic growth. Under the above background, this paper first expounds the mechanism of inflation affecting household consumption and the effect of resident consumption on economic growth. Using a large number of statistical data and charts, this paper analyzes the current situation of rural residents' consumption from many aspects, and compares it with urban residents' consumption, and obtains the overall characteristics of rural residents' consumption. Comparing the pulling effect of consumption and net export and rural residents' consumption with urban residents' consumption on economic growth, it is concluded that the pulling effect of Chinese consumption on economic growth still needs to be strengthened. Rural residents' consumption is especially insufficient. Then, the empirical analysis selected 30 provinces and cities in China from 1994 to 2014 panel data, using panel data smooth conversion regression model. By investigating the nonlinear relationship between rural residents' consumption and economic growth, we can draw the following conclusions: (1) there is a nonlinear relationship between rural residents' consumption and economic growth, and with the rise of inflation, there is a nonlinear relationship between rural residents' consumption and economic growth. The impact of rural residents' consumption on economic growth is becoming smaller, which is not conducive to promoting economic growth, and the inflation rate should be kept within 3.13%; At present, the contribution of rural residents to economic growth is small and affected by inflation. Finally, according to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis, how to develop rural residents' consumption is put forward. And effective control of inflation countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F323.8;F124.1

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