新民市住宅价格批量评估模型的建立与应用研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 08:20

本文关键词： 住宅价格批量评估模型建立应用　出处：《沈阳农业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着经济的迅猛发展,人们的生活水平也有了逐步的提高,房地产作为国民经济的支柱产业涉及的各类经济活动也越来越频繁,其中住宅的房地产市场尤为活跃,如房地产的购买、税收、征收、抵押等,又因为住房消费在居民消费总额中所在的比例居于首位,故准确、高效的评估房地产的价值就得到了越来越多的部门和个人关注。传统的估价模式,不仅耗费大量的人力、物力、财力,而且评估效率相对较低,不能在同一时间对数量庞大的房地产进行评估,所以会被批量评估逐步的取代。通过学习借鉴国内外关于批量评估模型的建立与应用成功案例的经验,本文详细的介绍了新民住宅价格的批量评估模型的建立与应用的过程。研究采用的方法有文献分析法、实地调查法、ArcGIS地理技术分析法和SPSS多元回归分析法等。首先,大量的收集和阅读国内外参考文献,了解国内外关于批量评估模型的建立与应用的研究现状,以及相关成功案例,掌握与批量评估模型有关的概念及批量评估建立与应用的发展过程,同时对比它与传统评估模式的差异及优势所在,熟悉批量评估模型建立的核心工作内容及工作程序,探索出本研究的模型建立方法与途径。其次,以新民市的市区内住宅作为数据基础,详细介绍批量评估模型的建立过程。首先进行划分区片,按照预先准备的调查表格现场调查住宅基础信息;通过网上调查案例价格以及现场走访售楼中心等方式搜集案例数据;设置标准房,通过市场提取法、德尔菲法等建立朝向、户型、楼层、侧端房、期日等因素的修正体系(B类因素修正体系);将信息归类、整理,同时通过ArcGIS地理信息系统的导出与地理位置及距离相关的信息数据;将标准房价格与Arc GIS导出的量化的各项因素数值等共同导入到SPSS统计分析软件中,进行模型的建立,同时对模型进行反复的校准及相关的检验,最终模型通过各项检验,得到新民市的住宅价格批量评估模型:Y=2788.476+85.141×楼盘档次修正系数+51.407×土地级别修正系数+1599.514×楼龄修正系数+16.521×中学修正系数+34.908×小学修正系数-160.613×棚户区修正系数,并通过应用实例验证模型建立的经济意义与实际意义。最后,对目前批量评估模型的建立与应用中需要改进与提高的地方进行归纳与总结,并对其应用的范围给予了合理的规划与展望,完整的批量评估模型的建立,配合后期信息数据的实时更新,该研究结果将对新民市住宅在购买、税收、征收、抵押以及开发商决策等各个环节都很有帮助,本研究迈出了辽宁省内中小型城市在批量评估方面研究的第一步。该研究成果将为辽宁省内其他类似城市做批量评估模型的研究提供参考和借鉴,同时也方便了很多部门高效、快捷、低成本的开展相应的工作。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of the economy, people's living standards have been gradually improved, real estate as a pillar industry of the national economy involved in various economic activities are more and more frequent. Residential real estate market is particularly active, such as the purchase of real estate, taxation, collection, mortgage and so on, and because the proportion of housing consumption in the total consumption of residents occupies the first place, so accurate. More and more departments and individuals pay more and more attention to evaluating the value of real estate efficiently. The traditional valuation model not only consumes a lot of human, material and financial resources, but also the evaluation efficiency is relatively low. We can not evaluate a large number of real estate at the same time, so it will be replaced by batch evaluation step by step. Through learning from domestic and foreign experience on the establishment and application of batch evaluation model successful cases. This paper introduces the process of establishing and applying the batch evaluation model of Xinmin housing price in detail. The methods used in the research are literature analysis method and field investigation method. ArcGIS geographic technology analysis and SPSS multiple regression analysis. Firstly, a large number of domestic and foreign references are collected and read. To understand the domestic and foreign research on the establishment and application of batch evaluation model, as well as related successful cases, grasp the concepts related to batch evaluation model and the development process of batch evaluation establishment and application. At the same time, compared with the traditional evaluation model, we are familiar with the core work content and working procedure of batch evaluation model, and explore the method and approach of this study. Secondly. Based on the data of residential buildings in Xinmin city, the establishment process of batch evaluation model is introduced in detail. Firstly, the housing basic information is investigated on the spot according to the investigation form prepared in advance. Through the online investigation of case prices and on-site visits to the sales center and other ways to collect case data; Set up standard room, through the market extraction method, Delphi method to establish the orientation, household, floor, side end room, date and other factors of the correction system B type correction system; Categorize and organize the information, and at the same time, export the information data related to the geographical location and distance through the ArcGIS GIS. The standard house price and the quantitative factor value derived by Arc GIS are imported into the SPSS statistical analysis software to establish the model. At the same time, the model was repeatedly calibrated and tested, and finally the model passed each test. A batch evaluation model of residential price in Xinmin city is obtained. The scale correction coefficient of real estate is 51.407 脳 land grade correction coefficient:: Yan 2788.476 85.141 脳 real estate grade correction coefficient. 1599.514 脳 building age correction coefficient 16.521 脳 middle school correction coefficient 34.908 脳 primary school correction coefficient -160.613 脳 shantytown correction coefficient. And through the application of examples to verify the economic and practical significance of the establishment of the model. Finally, the establishment and application of the current batch evaluation model needs to be improved and summarized. And the scope of its application to give a reasonable planning and outlook, the establishment of a complete batch evaluation model, with the real-time update of information data, the results of the study will be in Xinmin City in the purchase, taxation, collection. Mortgages and developer decisions are all helpful. This study takes the first step in batch evaluation of small and medium-sized cities in Liaoning Province. The research results will provide a reference for other similar cities in Liaoning Province to do batch evaluation model research. At the same time, it is convenient for many departments to carry out the corresponding work efficiently, quickly and at low cost.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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