人口老龄化对黄石市消费结构影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-22 20:28

本文关键词： 黄石市人口老龄化消费结构灰色关联分析　出处：《湖北师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：根据国家统计局公布的不同年份65岁以上人口比重来看,中国的老龄化呈加速上升状态。最近的人口普查显示,湖北省人口已基本老化。黄石市人口老龄化的速度也在日益增长,其大于等于65岁的老年人口占总人口的比例,2010年比十年前上升了 2.56个百分点。在人口老龄化的背景下,老年人消费的方式、对象、偏好、习惯等与年轻人和少年儿童不同,必然会对消费结构产生影响。所以,为增进黄石经济飞快发展,踊跃扩展消费需要,充分实现经济增长被消费所推动,贯彻实施国家、湖北省对于激励消费的种种政策。课题研究主要基于黄石市第六次人口普查资料,以及黄石市第五次人口普查数据和历年统计年鉴数据作为补充数据,研究人口老龄化对黄石市消费结构的影响。文章的主要内容第一章是绪论,摆明课题背景、意义;内容、使用的方法以及文章的大纲;立异和不足之处。还包括本文所参考的相关文献研究综述。第二章是与人口老龄化、年龄结构、消费结构相关的基本理论;第三章是用描述性的统计分析方法对黄石市人口老龄化和消费结构的近状进行剖析,描述黄石市人口老龄化的基本情况、特征;居民消费结构的基本情况和特征。第四章是把人口老龄化和消费结构的影响关系进行实证分析。本文选取"小于14岁的少年儿童比重"、"15至64岁的劳动年龄人口比重"、"大于65岁的老年人口比重"为人口年龄结构的映射量。选择"食"、"衣"、"居"、"家电及用品"、"交通与传播"、"教育文化娱乐"、"保健"和"其他"消费类消费占消费支出总额的比重,为消费结构的映射量。进行灰色关联分析时,人口年龄结构时间序列是母序列(参考序列),消费结构时间序列是子序列(比较序列)。然后再依照公式,计算出每个子序列和母序列的关联度,比较关联度的大小。结果明示,人口老龄化对"家电及用品"的影响最大,其次是"居",再次是"交通与传播"。其对"保健"类产品消费的影响仅次于"交通与传播"之后,此分析结果理论上也符合现代社会的生活现实。第五章是在第三、四章的基础上,提出应对黄石市人口老龄化及优化消费结构的对策。为企业在开发老年消费品决策方面提供参考价值。
[Abstract]:China's ageing is on the rise, according to the National Bureau of Statistics for the proportion of people over 65 in different years, according to a recent census. The population of Hubei Province has basically aged. The aging rate of population in Huangshi City is also increasing day by day, which is more than 65 years old population in the proportion of the total population. In 2010, it was 2. 56 percent higher than a decade ago. In the context of an ageing population, the way older people consume, their objects, their preferences, their habits are different from those of young people and young children. Therefore, in order to promote the rapid development of Yellowstone economy, actively expand consumption needs, fully achieve economic growth driven by consumption, the implementation of the country. The research is mainly based on the data of 6th censuses in Huangshi city, the data of 5th censuses in Huangshi city and the statistical yearbook data of the past years as supplementary data. The main content of this paper is the introduction, which shows the background and significance of the subject. Content, methods used and the outline of the article; The second chapter is the basic theories related to population aging, age structure and consumption structure. The third chapter is the use of descriptive statistical analysis of Huangshi population aging and consumption structure of the close analysis of the basic situation and characteristics of Huangshi population aging; Chapter 4th is an empirical analysis of the relationship between population aging and consumption structure. This paper selects the proportion of children less than 14 years old. "the proportion of the working-age population aged 15 to 64", "the proportion of the elderly population over the age of 65" is the mapping amount of the age structure of the population. Choose "food", "clothing", "dwelling", "appliances and articles". "Transportation and communication", "education, culture and entertainment", "health care" and "other" consumption as a proportion of total consumption expenditure, are the mapping amount of consumption structure. The population age structure time series is the mother sequence (reference sequence), and the consumption structure time series is the sub-sequence (comparison sequence). Then according to the formula, the correlation degree between each sub-sequence and mother sequence is calculated. The results show that the aging of the population has the greatest influence on "household appliances and supplies", followed by "residence". The second is "traffic and communication". Its effect on the consumption of "health care" products is second only to that of "traffic and communication". The results of this analysis also accord with the reality of life in modern society theoretically. Chapter 5th is the third chapter. On the basis of the four chapters, the author puts forward the countermeasures to deal with the aging of population and the optimization of consumption structure in Huangshi City, which provides reference value for enterprises in the decision-making of developing aged consumer goods.
【学位授予单位】：湖北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F126.1;C924.24

【参考文献】