投资者保护角度下创业板公司季度报告盈余管理研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 08:43

本文关键词： 中小投资者保护盈余管理季度报告　出处：《广东工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2014年第四季开始,作为国民经济“晴雨表”的证券市场从长年的熊市中走向了新阶段,进入股票市场的投资者数量越来越多,但因缺乏良好的投资氛围和一般投资者缺乏对会计信息的辨别能力,在大部分优秀公司的价格得到价值回归的情况下,多数投资者因为盲目进行投机创业板从而在2015年中演变成大范围的亏损。中小投资者在本应获得稳定收益的股票市场上沦为了待宰的羔羊。本文在基于对中小投资者的保护的角度下,统计分析了创业板的上市公司季度报表数据,制作并对比了不同季度的ROE分布图,根据图形分析发现了创业板公司普遍存在洗大澡、扭亏、虚增利润的现象,继而在对琼斯模型修改上,加入了自己对创业板公司的理解,分离了收入变化,并继而使用季度数据和年度数据同时进行了回归分析,发现在季度报告的解读上,收入与上年收入不是拥有同一个系数,但年报里这种情况为真。对于季度数据的研究发现,第一季度的报告倾向于根据上年收入数据制作,证据为当年收入系数有可能显著出现符号为负,上年收入为正的状态,并且不少见,容易在第一季度发生,并随时间变化和上年收入的影响形成交叉变化,最后变回今年收入符号为正,上年收入符号为负的状态。随后根据季度内市场波动的情况对牛熊猴预期的定义区分了不同的区间,并根据对比这些不同区间的残差数据的偏离程度,得出了牛市盈余管理程度显著增加的结论。然后通过对折旧数据的对比发现,上年固定资产原值并不只是反映了折旧的情况,在极端情况下能够解析利润的增长,并对2015年出现的奇异的系数变化做出了真实盈余管理在这期间可能很严重的解释。结合实证研究,得出了在缺乏动因的情况下,季度报表更可信,但如果存在动因就会变成季度不可信的结论。最后,结合投资者保护的理论给出应该建立季度报表信任体系的建议、披露财务人员的违规记录、制定衡量报表历史可信度的指标供参考、季度报表随机抽审、违规惩罚与匿名举报奖励、泼冷水制度、支持建立中小股东信息交流系统、股东责任明确、证券公司服务型改革、创业板退出审理制的建议。
[Abstract]:Since the fourth quarter of 2014, as a barometer of the national economy, the securities market has moved to a new stage from the bear market for many years, and the number of investors entering the stock market has become more and more. However, due to the lack of good investment atmosphere and the general investors' ability to distinguish the accounting information, the prices of most excellent companies get the return of value. In middle of 2015, the majority of investors became large-scale losses because of their blind speculation on the gem. Small and medium-sized investors became the lambs to be slaughtered in the stock market, where stable returns should have been achieved. The protection of small and medium investors under the angle. Statistical analysis of the gem quarterly report data of listed companies, making and comparing the distribution of ROE in different quarters, according to the graphic analysis found that gem companies generally have a bath, turn losses. The phenomenon of false increase in profit, then in the Jones model modification, to add their own understanding of the gem companies, the separation of income changes, and then use quarterly data and annual data at the same time for regression analysis. It was found that the quarterly report did not have the same coefficient as the previous year's earnings, but this was true in the annual report. The study of quarterly data found. The first quarter report tends to be based on the previous year income data, the evidence is that the current year income coefficient is likely to be significantly negative, the previous year income is positive, and is not uncommon, easy to occur in the first quarter. And with the change of time and the impact of the previous year's income formed a cross-change, and finally turned back to this year's income symbol is positive. The last year income symbol is negative. Then according to the market volatility in the quarter the definition of the bull and bear monkey expectation is divided into different regions and the degree of deviation according to the residual data compared to these different ranges. Then through the comparison of depreciation data, it is found that the original value of fixed assets in the previous year does not only reflect the situation of depreciation. In extreme cases, the growth of profit can be analyzed, and the real earnings management may be a very serious explanation for the strange coefficient change that occurred in 2015. In the absence of motivation, the quarterly statement is more credible, but if there is motivation, it will become a quarterly untrustworthy conclusion. Finally. Combining with the theory of investor protection, this paper gives the suggestion that the trust system of quarterly statements should be established, disclosing the illegal records of financial personnel, making indicators to measure the historical credibility of statements for reference, and random sampling of quarterly statements. Illegal punishment and anonymous report reward, pour cold water system, support the establishment of small and medium shareholders information exchange system, shareholders' responsibility is clear, securities company service reform, gem withdrawal from the trial system of the proposal.
【学位授予单位】：广东工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275

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