我国CPI波动及外部影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-26 03:20

本文关键词： CPI波动外部影响因素路径分析 VAR　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济改革的不断深入,新问题、新现象在不断涌出,例如我国国内能源和原材料的供应数量存在有限性,对国际上的原材料、煤炭、金属矿产品和石油等商品的进口量正逐年增加,它们均导致我国经济对外部资源的依赖度不断提高,如今这些问题已成为影响我国CPI波动的首要原因。然而我国开放经济下对CPI的适度波动及构成因子方面的探究已经取得了很好的成绩,同时,CPI的过高或过低波动,映射出社会上的供需之间的矛盾日驱激烈,本国的问题应当具体研究,仅仅从结构内部探究已经不能够充分解释,并且近年来CPI的组成部分及其各自的权重又变化不大,故而我们更针对性的选择CPI的主要外部影响因素来研究,以期来解释由这些新问题、新现象所引发的CPI波动。本文在探究我国CPI的波动情况及影响其波动的外部因素时,选择因素间的传导关系作为突破点,尝试通过分析四类外部因素对我国CPI的波动情况来发现各因素的影响程度及方式。本文首先从理论、定性的视角对CPI波动及四类外部影响因素进行论述,介绍CPI波动的涵义及四类外部影响因素的定义和对CPI的影响方式;之后从我国实际经济运行的角度和文献览读对影响CPI的各因素进行理论路径分析;再通过我国2008-2016年的多项经济指标数据进行我国CPI波动的统计分析,进而对我国CPI波动的外部影响因素进行传导渠道分析及动态差异性分析;最后根据探究结果可针对性的总结出我国CPI波动规律的管理政策。从分析结果能够看出,我国CPI波动受多因素影响,一是输入性因素的物价影响正逐步扩大,超货币因素占据首位,CPI对其冲击反应强烈且迅速;二是老牌影响因素仍旧影响显著,其中货币因素起到直接作用,几乎无时滞且后期作用明显,实际需求因素作用效果削弱,收入因素起到间接作用,虽影响较弱但不容忽视;三是我国现阶段的CPI波动的影响要素具有高度的内部传递性。针对上述我国CPI波动的特点,本文提出了如下几点政策建议:一是持续完善我国收入分配制度,充分发挥政府导向的积极作用;二是自主调节利率水平,加快以市场为导向的利率和汇率决定机制;三是推进稳健的货币政策与积极的财政政策的实施;四是树立科学发展理念,对现有的经济发展方式进行转变。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of China's economic reform, new problems and new phenomena are emerging, such as the limited supply of domestic energy and raw materials, to the international raw materials, coal. The import of metal ore products and petroleum and other commodities is increasing year by year, which leads to the increasing dependence of our economy on external resources. Nowadays, these problems have become the primary reason to affect the fluctuation of CPI in our country. However, the research on the moderate fluctuation of CPI and its constituent factors in the open economy of our country has made good achievements at the same time. The fluctuation of CPI is too high or too low, which reflects the contradiction between supply and demand in the society. The problems in our country should be studied concretely, and it can not be fully explained from the internal structure. And in recent years, the components of CPI and their respective weights have not changed much, so we choose the main external factors of CPI to study, in order to explain these new problems. This paper studies the fluctuation of CPI in China and the external factors that affect the fluctuation, and chooses the conduction relationship between factors as the breakthrough point. By analyzing the fluctuation of four kinds of external factors on CPI in China, we try to find out the influence degree and mode of each factor. From the qualitative angle of view, the paper discusses the fluctuation of CPI and four kinds of external influencing factors, and introduces the meaning of CPI fluctuation, the definition of four kinds of external factors and the ways of influencing CPI. Then from the point of view of the actual economic operation of our country and the literature review, this paper analyzes the theoretical path of the factors affecting CPI. Then the statistical analysis of CPI fluctuation in China is carried out through the data of many economic indicators from 2008 to 2016 in China. Then, the external influencing factors of CPI fluctuation in China are analyzed through conduction channel and dynamic difference analysis. Finally, according to the research results, we can summarize the management policy of CPI volatility law in China. From the analysis results, we can see that the CPI volatility in China is affected by many factors. First, the price influence of the imported factors is gradually expanding, and the super-monetary factor occupies the first place to react strongly and rapidly to the impact of CPI; Second, the old influence factors are still significant, in which the monetary factor plays a direct role, almost no time delay and the late effect is obvious, the actual demand factor effect is weakened, the income factor plays an indirect role. Although the influence is weak, it can not be ignored; Thirdly, the influencing factors of CPI fluctuation in our country at present have high internal transitivity, aiming at the characteristics of the above mentioned CPI fluctuation in our country. This paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: first, to continuously improve our income distribution system, give full play to the positive role of government guidance; Second, adjust the level of interest rate independently and speed up the market-oriented interest rate and exchange rate determination mechanism; Third, to promote the implementation of prudent monetary policy and active fiscal policy; Fourth, set up the concept of scientific development, to the existing mode of economic development to change.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F726

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