区域农业旱灾综合风险防范凝聚力指标体系与评价方法初探

发布时间：2018-01-28 19:25

本文关键词： 农业旱灾风险防范凝聚力指标体系　出处：《河北师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：旱灾是我国损失和影响最为严重的自然灾害之一。随着全球气候变暖,极端天气频发,区域社会经济发展,需水量剧增等压力的加大,干旱灾害及其风险问题越来越突出,旱灾有不断加重的趋势。减轻区域农业旱灾风险,需要集中与旱灾风险防范相关的各种行动措施,形成凝聚力。有效地减低脆弱性,提高适应和应对能力,是当前和未来综合减灾的发展方向。本文将凝聚力概念引入区域农业旱灾综合风险防范研究。通过典型区域特大旱灾案例在网络发布的应对信息,梳理了旱灾成因、灾情、影响、应急措施、救助、灾后恢复、灾前/以及下一轮灾害发生前所做的备灾工作。弄清了各种风险防范参与主体在旱灾防灾减灾过程中所起的作用,发现了凝聚力形成的动力来源,根据分析做出了体现区域农业旱灾协同减灾的案例表。通过分析来自政府部门的统计资料,工作报告或工作进展,获取农业经营的资源环境基础数据,筛选研究区农业旱灾综合风险防范的影响因素。通过实际调研走访,了解了农户的旱灾意识、减灾意愿、减灾策略和行动措施对凝聚力形成的重要性。根据灾害系统理论,采用综合分析与主导因素相结合的思路,按照凝聚力形成的力量来源,利用指标筛选以及GIS空间分析等技术方法,开展了对区域农业旱灾综合风险防范凝聚力指标体系和凝聚力评价方法的构建。建立了县级和村级农业旱灾综合风险防范凝聚力评价的指标体系。评价指标包括软硬两类,其中,软指标涵盖组织领导、管理调控、科学技术、保险、信息传播、交流与沟通等方面;硬指标主要考核农业经营的孕灾环境、水土资源匹配程度,农业旱灾适应与应对的各种能力等。县域水平上凝聚力评价指标分两个层次,第一层次,考察应对和适应区域旱灾相关部门的组织领导力、部门协同合作力、政策支撑度、孕灾环境稳定度、资源和工程设施保障力、财力和粮食供给的满足度、农业生产效率等。第二层次的指标分别对第一层次提出的各个维度进行考量。区域农业旱灾综合风险防范凝聚力指标体系考虑了系统内外两种资源和力量。凝聚力的形成和影响因素在不同区域、不同时段存在差异,有动态变化的特征。结合区域旱灾案例及邢台县实际进行实证分析。分析结果表明,区域农业旱灾综合风险防范凝聚力的形成和提升不仅取决于农户及个人的响应方式调整,而且取决于政府部门领导力和部门、社会团体、企事业单位之间的高效协作。长期的旱灾风险防范,需要将农业水资源需求与供给控制到平衡状态。为了谋求减灾与可持续发展,旱灾减灾需要由应急模式转为完整灾害周期的风险防范。
[Abstract]:Drought is one of the most serious natural disasters in China. With the global warming, frequent extreme weather, regional social and economic development, increased water demand and other pressures. Drought disasters and their risks are becoming more and more prominent, drought has a trend of increasing. To mitigate the regional agricultural drought risk, we need to focus on drought risk prevention related to a variety of action measures. Build cohesion... effectively reduce vulnerability and improve adaptation and coping capacity. This paper introduces the concept of cohesion into the study of comprehensive risk prevention of regional agricultural drought. Combing the causes of drought, disaster situation, impact, emergency measures, relief, disaster recovery. The role of various risk prevention participants in the process of drought prevention and mitigation, and the power source of cohesion formation. According to the analysis, the paper makes a case table of regional agricultural drought disaster reduction. Through analyzing the statistical data, work report or progress of work from the government departments, the paper obtains the basic data of resources and environment of agricultural management. Screening the influence factors of comprehensive risk prevention of agricultural drought in the study area. Through the actual investigation and visit, we understand the awareness of drought and the willingness to reduce disaster of farmers. The importance of disaster reduction strategy and action measures to the formation of cohesion. According to the theory of disaster system, combining the comprehensive analysis with the leading factors, according to the strength source of cohesion formation. The methods of index screening and GIS spatial analysis were used. The index system of regional agricultural drought comprehensive risk prevention cohesion index system and cohesive force evaluation method are constructed. The index system of county level and village level agricultural drought comprehensive risk prevention cohesion evaluation is established. The evaluation indexes include:. Hard and soft. Among them, soft index covers organizational leadership, management control, science and technology, insurance, information dissemination, communication and so on; Hard indicators mainly assess the disaster environment of agricultural management, soil and water resources matching degree, agricultural drought adaptation and coping ability, etc. At the county level cohesion evaluation indicators can be divided into two levels, the first level. To investigate the organizational leadership, cooperation, policy support, environmental stability, resource and engineering support, financial resources and food supply satisfaction of drought response and adaptation departments in the region. The index of the second level considers each dimension of the first level separately. The index system of regional agricultural drought comprehensive risk prevention and cohesion takes into account two kinds of resources and strength inside and outside the system. The formation and influence of force are in different regions. According to the case of regional drought and the actual situation of Xingtai county, the analysis results show that there are differences in different periods of time and the characteristics of dynamic change. The formation and promotion of regional agricultural drought comprehensive risk prevention cohesion depends not only on the adjustment of farmers' and individuals' response mode, but also on the leadership of government departments and departments, social groups. The efficient cooperation between enterprises and institutions and the long-term drought risk prevention need to control the demand and supply of agricultural water resources to a balanced state in order to seek disaster reduction and sustainable development. Drought mitigation needs risk prevention from emergency mode to complete disaster cycle.
【学位授予单位】：河北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：S423

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