国际油价波动对中国石油安全的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-03 12:35

本文关键词： 中东石油油价波动石油安全石油产业应对策略　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：石油作为全球首要的能源具有政治和经济双重属性,是支撑第二产业发展的核心,很多国家已将石油看成制约经济实力与国际地位的战略资源,中国作为全球第一大石油消费国,石油短缺仍然是核心问题,在短期新能源对石油的替代能力有限。因此,石油问题在未来20年内仍是我国能源安全所面临的严峻挑战,而国际石油的价格波动对于我国的石油安全来说,是不可忽视的一个问题,全面分析国际油价波动对我国石油安全的影响对我国的经济健康发展和能源安全具有深远的意义。文章中主要采用定性分析与定量分析:定性分析主要是采用文献研究归纳法和理论研究法,对相关理论进行深度解析,并与现实的问题相结合;定量分析主要是通过搜集相关数据进行统计分析,制成图表进行展示。主要通过研究中东石油资源在全球中的地位来分析中国石油供应对中东地区的依赖性,分析中东地缘政治的演变与国际油价的关系;现阶段国际油价低价运行对中国石油市场的影响;导致当前国际油价低迷的影响因素,包括供需、金融、政治等因素;对中短期国际油价的走势进行预测分析,并提出低油价对我国石油安全的影响,最后根据面临的实际问题提出具有针对性的应对措施。中东丰富的石油资源是我国社会经济发展可利用的重要战略资源,是保障我国石油安全的主要途径之一。中东乱局的持续在一定程度上加重了国际石油价格的不确定性,虽然对国际油价波动的影响力逐渐变弱,但仍然有一定的影响力,目前世界油价波动,对中国加快石油进口、建设能源储备基地、提高国际市场中石油定价话语权均会产生有益影响。此次引起国际油价的波动因素是金融、政治因素,供需因素在这次油价下跌的过程中起到的作用并不是很大。国际油价的波动对我国的石油上游企业、中游企业和下游企业都造成了影响,而对上中下游企业影响的程度和范围不同。我国的石油储备现处于国家储备不足,商业储备较多的局面中,而面对这些问题,中国政府以及相关部门应该在经济转型升级、能源外交、完善石油储备体系、研发新技术以及石油金融方面做出相应的应对策略,而中国的石油企业应该提升自身的创新能力及研究开发技术,积极调整企业内部结构,做好海外投资等,为我国石油企业应对石油价格波动提供稳定的生产和运行环境。
[Abstract]:As the most important energy in the world, oil has the dual attributes of politics and economy, which is the core of supporting the development of the secondary industry. Many countries have regarded oil as a strategic resource that restricts the economic strength and international status. As the world's largest oil consumer, China's oil shortage remains the core problem, with limited alternative capacity for oil in the short term. In the next 20 years, the oil problem is still a severe challenge to our energy security, and the fluctuation of the international oil price is a problem that can not be ignored for the oil security of our country. Comprehensive analysis of the impact of international oil price fluctuations on China's oil security has far-reaching significance for the healthy economic development and energy security of our country. Qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are mainly used in this paper. The qualitative analysis mainly uses the literature research induction method and the theory research method. The related theories are deeply analyzed and combined with practical problems. Quantitative analysis is mainly through the collection of relevant data for statistical analysis, making charts to display, mainly through the study of the status of Middle East oil resources in the world to analyze the dependence of Chinese oil supply on the Middle East region. Analyzing the relationship between the evolution of Middle East geopolitics and international oil price; The influence of the low price of international oil price on China's oil market at present; The influence factors of the current international oil price depression, including supply and demand, finance, politics and so on; The trend of international oil price in the short and medium term is predicted and analyzed, and the influence of low oil price on oil security in China is put forward. Finally, according to the actual problems facing the proposed targeted measures. Rich oil resources in the Middle East is an important strategic resource for the social and economic development of our country. The chaos in the Middle East has aggravated the uncertainty of the international oil price to a certain extent, although the influence on the fluctuation of international oil price has become weaker. However, there is still a certain impact on the current fluctuations in world oil prices, accelerating oil imports and building energy reserve bases for China. Improving the price of oil pricing in the international market will have a beneficial impact. The volatility of the international oil price is caused by financial and political factors. The factors of supply and demand have not played a very important role in the process of oil price decline. The fluctuation of international oil price has had an impact on the upstream enterprises, middle and downstream enterprises of our country. The degree and scope of the impact on the upstream and downstream enterprises are different. China's oil reserves are now in the situation of insufficient national reserves and more commercial reserves, and face these problems. The Chinese government and related departments should make corresponding countermeasures in the aspects of economic transformation and upgrading, energy diplomacy, improvement of petroleum reserve system, research and development of new technologies and petroleum finance. Chinese petroleum enterprises should improve their own innovation ability and research and development technology, actively adjust the internal structure of enterprises, and do a good job of overseas investment. It provides a stable production and operation environment for Chinese petroleum enterprises to deal with oil price fluctuation.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F764.1;F426.22

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