浙江省长期护理保险需求调查与筹资能力分析

发布时间：2018-02-04 14:34

本文关键词： 长期护理保险需求调查 Logit回归模型筹资能力 ARIMA模型　出处：《浙江财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：依据联合国通用标准,60岁年龄及以上的老年人群占总人口的比重达到10%以上,则被定义为步入人口老龄化社会。在2000年,我国60岁年龄及以上的老年人群占总人口的10.2%,意味着我国在2000年开始进入老龄化社会。而浙江早在1987年,60岁年龄及以上的老年人群占总人口比重超过10%,标志着浙江省进入老龄化社会。截止2015年底,浙江省年龄在60岁及以上的老年人口的数量已经达到985万人,占总人数的比重为20.2%。其中,年龄在80岁及以上的老人有155.8万人,占老年人口比重的15.84%,老龄化率与高龄化率均高于全国平均水平,意味着在浙江省,人口老龄化程度已经相当严重。浙江省目前失能和半失能老年数量为69.55万人,占老年人口总数的比重为7.07%。随着年龄的增加,老年人身体机能退化,患各种疾病、伤残、失能的概率逐渐上升,使得老年人的生活自理能力下降,随之而来的是人们对老年长期护理需求会大大增加。与此同时,由于我国之前长期实施计划生育政策,导致我国的家庭户规模越来越小,“4-2-1”的倒金字塔家庭结构比重不断的增大。作为第三代需要赡养上面六个人,并且伴随着生活和工作的压力让人照顾老人力不从心;除此之外,随着经济的发展,就业人口的跨地区流动和迁徙大大增加,造成了空巢家庭不断增加。这些老年人不仅缺乏生活经济保障和日常生活的照料看护,而且也容易出现心理疾病。由于家庭户规模越来越小、“4-2-1”的倒金字塔家庭结构和空巢家庭的不断出现,让家庭养老的功能逐渐削弱,当有老年人需要长期护理服务时,家庭模式如今已难以承受。人口老龄化问题阻碍了社会经济的发展,严重冲击着社会保障体系。虽然目前的社会医疗保障制度普及率较高,然而保障水平较低,老人缺乏长期护理服务。建立适应我国国情的长期护理保险制度已经刻不容缓,然而因为我国各个地区经济发展不平衡和文化不同的问题,希望短期内构建全国统一的长期护理保险制度是不可能的,这需要根据不同地区的实际具体情况设计相应的长期护理保险制度。本文的内容如下:第一,对长期护理保险进行理论分析,重点通过比较分析国内外长期护理保险的筹资模式,建议在浙江省建立社会保险模式的的长期护理保险制度。第二,对浙江省长期护理保险进行需求调查与费用预测。首先描述当前浙江省人口老龄化与护理需求概况,来说明在浙江省建立长期护理保险制度的必要性。其次对浙江省人群长期护理保险需求情况展开问卷调查,内容包括身体状况、家庭状况、对长期护理保险的购买意愿及实施模式等。运用Logit回归模型分析了解影响购买长期护理保险的主要因素,并对未来的长期护理服务需求费用进行预测。第三,评估浙江省长期护理保险相关主体的筹资能力,利用统计模型评估政府、企业及个人的筹资能力,其中采用ARIMA模型预测政府的筹资能力,从而确定长期护理保险制度可行的筹资主体。第四,基于浙江省长期护理保险的需求调查与筹资能力评估结果,提出浙江省社会长期护理保险制度的构建方案,并为发展和完善浙江省长期护理保险制度提出相应的对策建议。问卷调查发现,当前浙江省居民对长期护理保险的需求较强烈,绝大多数人们希望政府建立社会长期护理保险制度。对于社会长期护理保险而言,资金的筹集是其能否正常运行的重要基础,由于政府、企业及个人都可能作为筹资主体,因此第四章利用科学的统计模型来分析政府的筹资能力、企业缴费能力及个人负担能力,结果表明企业由于负担过重暂不考虑,可以考虑政府和个人作为主要筹资主体。最后本文提出了浙江省社会长期护理保险制度的设想思路,并提出可行性建议。
[Abstract]:According to the general standard of the United Nations, 60 years of age and older population more than the proportion of the total population of more than 10%, is defined as entering into the aging society. In 2000, 60 years of age and older population in China accounted for more than 10.2% of the total population, means that China has entered the aging society in 2000. Zhejiang as early as 1987, 60 years of age and older population more than the proportion of the total population of more than 10%, marking the Zhejiang province entered the aging society. By the end of 2015, Zhejiang Province, at the age of 60 years of age and older population has reached 9 million 850 thousand people, the proportion of the total number of 20.2%. which, in old age at the age of 80 and more than 1 million 558 thousand people, accounting for 15.84% of the proportion of the elderly population, the rate of population aging and the aging rate were higher than the national average, means that in Zhejiang Province, the degree of population aging has been quite serious. Zhejiang province is currently disabled and half The number of disabled elderly 695 thousand and 500 people, accounting for the proportion of elderly population is 7.07%. with the increase of age, the degradation of physical function of the elderly, suffering from various diseases, disability, disability probability decreased gradually increased, making the elderly self-care ability, followed by people will be greatly increased for the long-term care needs of the elderly. At the same time. Because of our long before the implementation of the family planning policy, leading to China's household size is more and more small, the "inverted Pyramid family structure 4-2-1" increasing. As the third generation to support the above six people, and with life and work pressure makes people unable to take care of the elderly; in addition, with the economy the development of cross regional floating population migration and employment increase greatly, resulting in empty nest families is increasing. These old people are not only lack of economic security and daily life as The material of care, but also prone to mental illness. The family size is more and more small, "4-2-1" inverted Pyramid family structure and empty nest families continue to appear, let the family pension function gradually weakened, when elderly people need long-term care services, family pattern is now difficult to bear. The problem of population aging has hindered the social and economic development, a serious impact on the social security system. Although the social medical insurance system at the higher rate, but lower the level of protection, the lack of long-term care services. To establish long-term care insurance system in our country is imperative, however, because of China's economic development in various regions and different cultural imbalance problems in the short term, hope to build a unified national long-term care insurance system is not possible, the need to design the corresponding term according to the practical situation in different regions The nursing insurance system. The contents of this paper are as follows: first, a theoretical analysis of long term care insurance, mainly through the comparative analysis of the financing mode of long-term care insurance at home and abroad, proposed the establishment of social insurance model of long term care insurance system in Zhejiang province. In second, the Zhejiang Province Survey and prediction of long term care insurance costs demand described. The current situation of population aging in Zhejiang province and nursing needs, to illustrate the necessity of establishing the long-term care insurance system in Zhejiang province. The population of Zhejiang province long-term care insurance demand situation questionnaire, including health status, family status, the long-term care insurance purchase intention and implementation mode. Using Logit regression model analysis of the main factors to understand the impact of buy long-term care insurance, and predicts the future demand of long-term care costs. Third, evaluation of Zhejiang Long term care insurance related to the subject of Jiang province's financing ability, evaluation of the government using the statistical model, enterprise and individual financing ability, which uses the ARIMA model to predict the government's financing ability, so as to determine the subject of financing feasible long-term care insurance system. Fourth, evaluation results of demand survey and financing ability of long-term care insurance in Zhejiang Province Based on the construction plan the long-term care insurance system in Zhejiang province of the society, and for the development and improvement of long term care insurance system in Zhejiang Province, puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. The survey found that the current Zhejiang province residents demand for long-term care insurance is strong, the vast majority of people want the government to establish long-term care insurance system for the society. Social long-term care insurance, funds the raise is whether the important foundation of the normal operation of the government, enterprises and individuals are likely as the subject of financing, because The fourth chapter uses statistical models to analyze the science of government financing ability, enterprise payment ability and personal burden ability, the results show that enterprise because of heavy burden will not consider, consider the government and individuals as the main subject of financing. Finally this paper proposed ideas of long term care insurance system in Zhejiang province of the society, and puts forward some feasible suggestions.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F842.6

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