宁夏黄河堤防风险分析及洪水影响评估

发布时间：2018-02-09 10:08

本文关键词： 宁夏黄河堤防整治工程风险评价指标体系层次分析法一、二维耦合洪水影响评估　出处：《天津大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：宁夏黄河堤防段是个洪凌灾害多发地段,几乎每年都会有不同程度的洪凌灾害发生,尤其是河道整治工程处的堤防,虽然经过多次治理,但是由于堤防本身因素和外部因素的综合作用,仍然存在较大的风险。因此,有必要采用科学合理的方法对重点整治工程处堤防的风险做出综合评价,然后选取危险程度最大的堤段进行溃堤洪水风险分析。本文主要的研究成果包括:(1)根据宁夏黄河堤防的特点,从堤防本身和洪水风险的角度出发,建立了宁夏黄河堤防风险评价指标体系。(2)基于宁夏黄河堤防工程风险层次性与动态性的特点,将堤防风险评价指标看作一个多层次结构体系。在现场调查和专家评分的基础上,利用层次分析法对卫宁左岸、卫宁右岸、青石左岸和青石右岸典型整治工程处堤防进行了风险综合评价。(3)根据综合评价结果,选取卫宁左岸危险程度最高的堤防工程作为溃口位置,建立了黄河河道一维和中卫河北防洪保护区二维的一、二维耦合水动力学模型,并采用“干湿水深判别”、糙率分区和溃口的渐变展宽设置对模型进行优化。(4)利用优化模型对中卫河北防洪保护区遭遇黄河河道100年一遇大洪水的工况进行洪水数值模拟计算,根据计算结果进行了洪水风险分析。(5)在对受影响社会经济数据统计方法和洪水损失评估方法深入剖析的基础上,对中卫河北防洪保护区进行了洪水影响评估。
[Abstract]:The Yellow River embankment section in Ningxia is a flood-prone area with varying degrees of flooding occurring almost every year, especially the embankment of the River Regulation Agency, although it has been controlled many times. However, due to the combined effect of the dike itself and external factors, there is still a greater risk. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt a scientific and reasonable method to make a comprehensive evaluation of the risk of the key embankment of the Agency. Then select the most dangerous embankment to analyze the flood risk of breakwater. The main research results of this paper include: (1) according to the characteristics of Yellow River embankment in Ningxia, from the point of view of embankment itself and flood risk, Based on the characteristics of the risk levels and dynamics of the Yellow River embankment engineering in Ningxia, the evaluation index of the embankment risk is regarded as a multi-level structure system. Based on the field investigation and expert score, the evaluation index of the risk of the Yellow River dike in Ningxia is established. Based on the comprehensive evaluation results, the risk comprehensive evaluation of the typical embankment of UNRWA was carried out on the left bank, the right bank of Wei Ning, the left bank of bluestone and the right bank of Qingshi by the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Taking the levee with the highest risk level on the left bank of Weining as the location of the breakout, the one-dimensional and two-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic models of the Yellow River channel and the Hebei Flood Control Reserve of Zhongwei are established. The model is optimized by "dry-wet water depth discrimination", the roughness zoning and the gradual widening of the rout. The model is optimized by using the optimized model. The flood numerical simulation calculation is carried out on the condition that the Hebei Flood Protection area in Zhongwei has encountered the Yellow River channel flood once in 100 years. Based on the calculation results, flood risk analysis is carried out. Based on the deep analysis of the statistical methods of the affected social and economic data and the flood loss assessment method, the flood impact assessment of Hebei flood control protection area in Zhongwei is carried out.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV871;TV122

【相似文献】