企业违规排污诱发因素的风险贡献量化研究

发布时间：2018-02-11 06:30

本文关键词： 企业违规排污诱发因素模糊综合评价突发水污染事故　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着工业化进程的不断深入,我国经济飞速发展,突发环境事件的程度和频率也在不断增加。突发水污染作为主要的污染类型之一,给环境造成了严重的影响,究其原因众多。国内外众学者对近年来突发水污染事件的统计分析表明,企业的违规排污正在成为诱发水污染事故突发的主要原因。针对这一新形势开展研究,厘清企业违规排污作为诱因的作用方式,不仅能增强事故发生前的风险预判能力,完善风险评估体系;还可以通过采取更有针对性的监察手段、建立更有力度的惩罚体系,将环境监察动态化,使有限的人力、物力资源得到更为高效的利用;具有学术理论意义和实际应用价值。以企业违规排污诱发突发水污染事故的案例为切入点。首先,通过对以砷为主要污染物的代表案例进行分析,确定了拟考察的诱发因素为资源情况、经济背景、经济波动、政策和自然等。然后,对具体案例进行了数据收集与挖掘,综合分析其诱发因素。在此基础上,利用解释结构模型找出了个案的诱发因素中影响最大的因素。最后,通过整合具体案例信息,得出了整体概括性的分析结果,确定了影响企业违规排污的主要诱发因素为经济和政策。基于对企业违规排污行为的诱发因素与以企业违规排污为起因的突发水污染事故的诱发因素是不等同的这一基本认识。为从企业内部有效预防和避免事故的发生,对影响企业违规排污的可控诱发因素进行了进一步分析。发现经济和政策之所以能够对企业的违规排污行为产生影响,主要原因是其影响了企业实际利润的变化。所以从经济学原理和环境管理有效性出发,假设考察企业为基本环境友好型;根据违规企业的诱发特点,确定了企业规模为中小型;然后对不同利润变化期企业的违规排污选择进行了分析,并采用模糊综合评价方法对分析结果进行了量化。结果表明企业在利润激增时选择先新建而无违规排污行为的可能性较低,选择先生产时发生违规排污行为的可能性极大,在利润下降时企业也有极大可能选择违规排污。结合上述分析结果,对环境监察动态化的实施提出了建议。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of industrialization and the rapid economic development of our country, the degree and frequency of sudden environmental events are also increasing. As one of the main pollution types, sudden water pollution has caused serious impact on the environment. The statistical analysis of sudden water pollution incidents in recent years by many scholars at home and abroad shows that the illegal discharge by enterprises is becoming the main cause of the sudden water pollution accidents. In view of this new situation, the research has been carried out. Clarifying the role of enterprises' pollution violations as an inducement can not only enhance the ability of pre-accident risk prediction and improve the risk assessment system, but also establish a more vigorous punishment system by adopting more targeted means of supervision. It is of academic theoretical significance and practical application value to make use of limited human and material resources more efficiently by dynamic environmental monitoring. Firstly, the paper takes the case of enterprises' illegal discharge to induce sudden water pollution accidents as the starting point. Through the analysis of the representative cases of arsenic as the main pollutant, it is determined that the induced factors to be investigated are resource situation, economic background, economic fluctuation, policy and nature, etc. Then, the data collection and mining of specific cases are carried out. On the basis of comprehensive analysis of the inducing factors, the author uses the explanatory structure model to find out the most influential factors in the case. Finally, by integrating the information of the specific cases, the overall analysis results are obtained. It is determined that the main inducing factors that affect the illegal discharge of pollutants in enterprises are economy and policy. The inducing factors based on the illegal discharge behavior of enterprises are not equal to those of sudden water pollution accidents caused by the illegal discharge of pollutants in enterprises. This basic understanding... in order to effectively prevent and avoid accidents from within the enterprise, This paper further analyzes the controllable inducing factors that affect the enterprises' illegal emission. It is found that the economy and policy can have an impact on the enterprise's illegal emission behavior. The main reason is that it affects the change of the actual profit of the enterprise. Therefore, starting from the economic principle and the effectiveness of environmental management, the author assumes that the enterprise is a basic environment-friendly type, and according to the induced characteristics of the offending enterprise, the enterprise scale is determined to be small and medium-sized. Then, the selection of illegal emission in different profit periods is analyzed. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to quantify the results of the analysis. The results show that it is less likely for enterprises to build new products first and not to violate the regulations when the profits surge, and the possibility of illegal emission behavior when the enterprises choose to produce first is great. It is also very possible for enterprises to choose illegal pollution discharge when profits are declining. Based on the above analysis results, some suggestions on the implementation of dynamic environmental monitoring are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X322

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