新常态下中国跨越中等收入陷阱问题研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 02:22

本文关键词： 新常态中等收入陷阱结构调整收入分配　出处：《辽宁大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪80年代开始,中国作为东亚最富活力的国家走上了高速发展的时代,年均GDP增速接近10%,从本质上提升了国力和人民生活水平,改变了中国在全球经济中的地位。然而,长期的非均衡发展带来了相应的负面影响,2008年金融危机之后,全球经济陷入缓慢复苏的泥潭,中国经济也告别了两位数字的增长,进入下行区间。2014年中国政府首次用“新常态”来描述当前中国经济。2015年,中国的全年GDP为67.67万亿人民币,经济增速6.9%,人均GDP达到5.2万元人民币(按13亿人口计),约合8016美元。按照国际通行标准,中国早已进入中高等收入国家行列。然而,从国际经验看,当一国国民收入达到中等水平以后,经济发展往往会出现一些问题,即陷入所谓“中等收入陷阱”的困局。拉丁美洲的巴西、智利、委内瑞拉,东南亚的菲律宾、马来西亚等国家,都是其中的典型代表。中国是一个拥有13亿人口的大国,经济总量超过60万亿人民币,改革开放以来尤其是近些年来经济社会发展取得了巨大成就。但是在面临跨越中等收入陷阱问题上,尚没有现成的经验可以借鉴。前期经济发展带来的产能过剩、需求萎缩、贫富差距拉大等问题,以及人口红利的减退、自然环境恶化等因素的制约,使中国在迈向高收入国家的进程中困难重重。在经济新常态的背景下,如何破解中国经济社会发展的各项难题,跨越中等收入陷阱,防止上述问题的进一步扩大和蔓延,推进中国全面深化改革开放,都是值得深思的重大课题。尤其是在全面建成小康社会和实现中华民族伟大复兴的历史进程中,更加值得全社会高度关注基于此,本文在“认识新常态、适应新常态、引领新常态”的主线下,对新常态下我国跨越中等收入陷阱的问题进行了系统研究。本文的结构大致分为七部分,第一部分阐明了课题研究的背景、意义、研究方法与研究的主要内容。在第二部分,是对中等收入陷阱研究的国内外文献综述,从中等收入陷阱的认识、标准及跨越中等收入陷阱的影响因素等方面的研究进行了梳理,并作出了简要评价。第三部分,是本文研究的理论基础,包括对中国新常态的经济学认识、中等收入陷阱理论及二者之间的理论关系。第四部分是从定性的角度,对新常态下跨越中等收入陷阱的影响因素及机理进行分析,具体包括新常态下我国经济运行的现状,以及经济增速下行、人口转型、产业结构调整、收入分配及扩大内需等对跨越中等收入陷阱的影响机理,并提出了相应观点。第五部分,是本文的计量分析部分,在新常态下主要经济因素对跨越中等收入陷阱定性分析的基础上,利用31个省市自治区5年的面板数据,进行了计量分析,并得出具体实证结论。第六部分,主要介绍跨越中等收入陷阱的国际经验及教训,选取了跨越中等收入陷阱的成功和失败两方面的案例,包括英国、美国、德国和日本的成功案例,以及拉美国家、东南亚国家、东欧国家的失败案例,从正反两个方面阐述如何跨越中等收入陷阱的经验及教训。第七部分,结合我国经济新常态的现状以及定性、定量分析的结论,提出了我国跨越中等收入陷阱、实现经济可持续发展的对策和建议,包括改善劳动人口占比、提高人力资本质量；平衡投资与消费,保持经济增长内需内生动力；加快产业结调整升级、激发产业活力；加大研发投入和科技创新力度、促进科技成果有效转化；完善收入分配政策、促进居民收入增长等。本文研究的主要结论有：(1)在中等收入阶段,落入陷阱与跨越陷阱经济体的人均GDP增长率存在明显的差异,跨越陷阱国家或地区的人均GDP增长率基本超过6%,而落入陷阱国家或地区的人均GDP增长率主要处于1%-4%之间。(2)基于中国的数据,人口自然增长率下降有利于跨越中等收入陷阱,劳动人口占比与人均收入成正相关。(3)经济增长速度与跨越中等收入陷阱之间存在直接影响,保持一定合理水平的经济增长速度,是成功跨越中等收入陷阱的保障。(4)消费需求和产业结构调整对人均收入的增长具有显著的正向影响。(5)城镇化的水平的提高,对跨越中等收入陷阱具有积极影响。
[Abstract]:The beginning of 1980s, Chinese as East Asia's most vibrant country on the era of rapid development, the average annual GDP growth rate of nearly 10%, essentially to enhance the national strength and people's living standards, changing the Chinese's role in the global economy. However, the non balanced development of long-term brought the negative influence, after the 2008 financial the global economic crisis, in the slow recovery of the quagmire, China economy also bid farewell to the two digit growth, entering a downward interval.2014 Chinese government for the first time with the "new normal" to describe the current economic Chinese.2015 years, China the annual GDP 67 trillion and 670 billion yuan, the economic growth rate of 6.9%, the per capita GDP reached 52 thousand yuan (according to the 1 billion 300 million population meter), or about $8016. According to international standard, China has already entered the ranks of high-income countries. However, from the international experience, when a country's national income at the medium level Later, the economic development will often encounter some problems, which fall into the so-called "middle income trap" predicament. In Latin America, Brazil, Chile, Venezuela, Southeast of Philippines, Malaysia and other countries, is one of the typical representative. China is a 1 billion 300 million in the country, the total economic output of more than 60 trillion yuan, the reform and opening up especially in recent years since the economic and social development has made great achievements. But in the face across the middle-income trap, there is no ready-made experience. Bring early economic development overcapacity, shrinking demand, widening the gap between rich and poor and other issues, and the decline of the demographic dividend, restricting the deterioration of the natural environment and other factors, the in China towards high-income countries in the process of economic difficulties. In the context of the new normal, how to solve the problem of China economic and social development, leap Other income trap, prevent the above problems to further expand and spread China promote comprehensive deepening of reform and opening up, is a major issue worth pondering. Especially in the historical process of building a well-off society and realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, the whole society more worthy of a high degree of attention based on this, this article in the "understanding of the new normal, adaptation the new normal, the main leading new normal under the new normal in China across the middle-income trap problems were studied. The structure of this paper can be divided into seven parts, the first part explains the research background, significance, main content, research methods and research. In the second part, is reviewed the research on the middle income trap, from the middle income trap, research standard and influence across the Middle Income Trap factors are summarized, and a brief evaluation. The third part is the theoretical basis of this study, including the understanding of the new normal China economics, theory of the relationship between the middle income trap theory and the two. The fourth part is from the qualitative point of view, the influence factors of the new norm across the middle-income trap and mechanism are analyzed, including the status quo of China's economic operation and the the new normal, and the downward economic growth, the demographic transition, the adjustment of industrial structure, income distribution and the mechanism of the effect of expanding domestic demand across the middle-income trap, and puts forward some corresponding views. The fifth part is the quantitative analysis part of this article, the main economic factors under the new norm on the basis of qualitative analysis across the middle income trap. Using the panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions for 5 years, were analyzed, and the empirical conclusions. The sixth part mainly introduces the international experience across the middle-income trap And the lesson, selected across the middle income trap the success and failure of two cases, including Britain, the United States, the successful case of Germany and Japan, and Latin American countries, Southeast Asian countries, failures in Eastern Europe, describes the experience and lessons of how to cross the middle income trap from two sides. The seventh part, combined with the status quo the qualitative and the new normal economy in China, the quantitative analysis conclusion, proposed our country across the middle income trap, to achieve sustainable economic development countermeasures and suggestions, including improving the labor population proportion, improve the quality of human capital; the balance of investment and consumption, domestic demand to maintain economic growth of endogenous power; accelerate the industrial structure adjustment and upgrade. Stimulate industrial activity; increase investment in research and development and technological innovation, promote the transformation of scientific and technological achievements; improve the income distribution policy, promoting the residents' income growth. This study The main conclusions are: (1) in the middle-income stage, fall into the trap and GDP per capita across the trap economy's rate of growth are significantly different across countries or regions of the trap GDP per capita growth rate of more than 6%, and fall into the trap of GDP per capita growth rate of major countries or regions in 1%-4%. (2) Chinese based on the data, the natural population growth rate dropped to cross the middle income trap, labor population and per capita income is positively correlated. (3) the rate of economic growth has a direct effect between and across the middle income trap, maintain a reasonable level of economic growth, is the guarantee of success across the middle income trap. (4) consumer demand and the adjustment of industrial structure has a positive effect on the growth of per capita income. (5) the urbanization level, which has a positive impact on across the middle-income trap.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124.7

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