结构变动对浙江省服务业增长的影响和贡献度测算

发布时间：2018-03-02 08:44

本文关键词： 结构红利变系数模型贡献度测算　出处：《浙江工商大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济保持了 30多年的快速增长,取得了举世瞩目的成就。经过长期的高速增长之后,我国的经济发展呈现出了一些新的态势,特别是近年来,我国经济增速放缓,在部分行业出现严重产能过剩的同时,现代生产服务业、生活服务业出现了快速的增长。不同行业发展环境存在巨大差别,促使我国亟需对产业结构进行调整。产业结构调整不仅是三次产业结构的调整,更表现为各产业内部结构的调整,随着服务业在国民经济中的比重不断上升,服务业发展成为了研究的热点。服务业内部结构变动和服务业增长是服务业研究的两个重要领域,众多学者对这两个领域分别进行了较多的研究,但是对两者之间关系的研究却相对较少。同时,结构经济学派认为结构变动会产生结构红利,结构红利主要指要素结构变动对经济增长的促进作用。现有结构红利的研究主要集中于对国民经济整体的分析上,那么服务业内部结构变动存在结构红利吗?结构红利对服务业增长有多大的促进作用?结构红利应该如何测算?本文从以上问题出发,提出了以生产函数为基础的结构红利测算方法,并选择经济较为发达的浙江省作为研究对象,对浙江省服务业发展现状、服务业结构优化与产出增长的关系、结构变动对浙江省服务业增长贡献度等方面进行了研究。本文主要从以下三个方面对浙江省服务业的发展进行了分析研究:首先,从服务业产出总量、内部结构的现状和发展趋势入手,对浙江省和国外服务业发展进行了对比分析。并通过大量的描述性统计分析,清晰地反映了浙江省服务业的发展现状。其次,本文以服务业结构变动规律为理论基础,构建了服务业结构优化指标,即服务业结构高级化指标。通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验,对浙江省服务业结构高级化和服务业产出增长之间的关系进行分析。最后,面对目前产业结构对经济增长贡献度的研究文献较多,却缺乏较好测算方法的情况,本文从生产函数模型角度提出了测算结构变动对经济增长的测算方法。本部分从传统假定下的生产函数模型出发,创造性的构造了双效应生产函数模型,该模型同时考虑了技术水平和要素产出弹性的时间效应和个体效应,从而更加客观的反映了服务行业技术水平、要素产出弹性的时变性和行业异质性。基于双效应生产函数模型,本文提出了结构变动对服务业产出增长贡献度测算的新方法,将产出增长分解为内涵型经济增长、外延型经济增长和结构变动对产出增长的促进效应。通过实证分析发现,服务业内部结构变动对浙江省服务业产出增长存在显著的促进作用。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained rapid growth in the past 30 years, has made remarkable achievements. After a long period of rapid growth, China's economy developed some new trend, especially in recent years, China's economic growth slowed in some industries appear serious excess capacity at the same time, modern the production service industry, life service industry has seen a rapid growth. There is a huge difference between different industry development, China should promote the adjustment of the industrial structure. Industrial structure adjustment is not only three times the adjustment of industrial structure, but also the performance of internal industrial structure adjustment, with the proportion of the service industry in the national economy is rising the development of the service industry, has become a hot research topic. The service industry internal structure change and the growth of service industry are two important fields of service industry, many scholars respectively in these two areas A lot of research, but the research on the relationship between them is relatively small. At the same time, the structure of economics that structural changes will produce structure dividend, dividend structure mainly refers to the change of structure elements to promote economic growth. The existing structure bonus mainly focused on analysis of the whole national economy, so the service industry structure bonus changes in the internal structure? Structure bonus large role in promoting the growth of service industry structure? The bonus should be measurement? This paper starting from the above problems, put forward the structure of the red profit calculation method based on production function, and select the more economically developed Zhejiang Province as the research object, the development status of the service industry in Zhejiang province. Relationship between the growth of service industry structure optimization and output, studied the structure change on the growth of service industry in Zhejiang province contribution. This article mainly from the following three Study on development of service industry in Zhejiang Province: first of all, from the service industry output, starting with the current situation and development trend of the internal structure of Zhejiang Province, and the foreign service industry development are analyzed. And through the descriptive statistical analysis of a large number of development clearly reflect the service industry in Zhejiang Province. Secondly, based on the service industry structure changes as the theoretical basis, constructing the optimization index structure of service industry, the service industry structure level index. Through cointegration test, Grainger causality test, the relationship between the growth of service industry in Zhejiang province advanced structure and service output were analyzed. Finally, the face of the current industrial structure of the research literature more contribution to economic growth, but the lack of good methods, it proposes the measurement structure change on the calculation methods of economic growth. From the point of view of the production function model This part of the production function model from the traditional assumption, creatively constructed dual effect production function model, the model considering the time effect of the technical level and the output elasticity of factors and individual effects, and thus more objectively reflects the technical level of the service industry, time-varying and industry heterogeneity of output elasticity of factors. Dual effect based on the production function model, this paper proposes a new method of calculating degree of service industry output growth contribution of structural change, decomposes output growth into intensive economic growth and extensive economic growth and structural change of output growth promoting effect. Through the empirical analysis found that there is a significant promoting effect on the output growth of service industry in Zhejiang province the internal structure of the service industry.

【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719

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