中国城市化影响碳排放的理论机制及实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 11:25

本文选题：城市化　切入点：碳排放总量　出处：《浙江工商大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人口城市化和全球气候变暖已成为趋势,大量的人口向城市迁移,生产和生活方式的转变对气候变化的影响十分显著。目前,中国处于城市化、工业化快速发展阶段,导致城市基础设施需求的增加,能源消耗也随之增加,从而引发碳循环失衡。我国已经成为世界上第一排放国,分析城市化进程中我国二氧化碳排放的演变特征,如何提高碳排放效率是我国低碳经济发展的关键,对我国经济的可持续发展,城市化质量的提高都有重要的理论意义和实践价值。本文除了探讨中国城市化水平与碳排放总量之间的关系外,还考虑了各省市的碳排放效率,并结合产业结构、能源结构和技术进步等因素,探讨了中国城市化与碳排放效率间的关系,为各地区低碳经济发展提供建议。首先,结合已有研究文献探讨城市化影响碳排放的关联机制,发现城市化既可以直接影响碳排放总量,又可以通过经济增长、产业结构、能源消耗、技术进步等影响碳排放。其次,对各省市碳排放量进行核算并对其特征进行描述性分析,通过建立计量模型发现我国城市化与碳排放总量之间存在长期均衡关系。之后利用全国和东部、中部、西部三大区域面板数据对两者之间关系进行研究,表明两者之间的关系有明显的区域差异,东部和中部地区的城市化水平对碳排放总量有显著的促进作用,而西部地区城市化水平对碳排放总量没有明显作用。人均GDP、能源结构、产业结构均会促进碳排放总量的增长,而技术进步对碳排放总量的抑制作用还相当有限。为进一步探讨城市化与碳排放之间的关系,本文利用基于GML指数的DEA模型测算出碳排放效率,结果表明我国碳排放效率按"东部、中部、西部"逐渐减小。最后,利用Tobit模型分析城市化与碳排放效率之间的关系,发现城市化水平对碳排放效率有显著的抑制作用,且西部地区的城市化水平对碳排放效率的影响大于全国平均水平,而东部地区城市化水平对碳排放效率的影响最小。最终根据分析结果,结合各区域经济现状,有针对性地提出对策建议。
[Abstract]:Population urbanization and global warming have become a trend. A large number of people migrate to cities, and changes in production and lifestyle have a very significant impact on climate change. At present, China is in the stage of urbanization and rapid industrialization. As a result of the increasing demand for urban infrastructure, energy consumption is also increasing, thus causing the carbon cycle imbalance. China has become the first emitter in the world, analyzing the evolution characteristics of China's carbon dioxide emissions in the process of urbanization. How to improve the efficiency of carbon emission is the key to the development of low-carbon economy in China. The improvement of urbanization quality has important theoretical significance and practical value. This paper not only discusses the relationship between urbanization level and total carbon emission in China, but also considers the efficiency of carbon emission in various provinces and cities, and combines with the industrial structure. In this paper, the relationship between urbanization and carbon emission efficiency in China is discussed in order to provide suggestions for the development of low-carbon economy in different regions. It is found that urbanization can not only directly affect the total amount of carbon emissions, but also affect carbon emissions through economic growth, industrial structure, energy consumption and technological progress. It is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization and total carbon emissions in China through the establishment of econometric models, and then the relationship between them is studied by using the panel data of the three major regions of China, the east, the middle and the west. The results show that there are obvious regional differences in the relationship between the two. The urbanization level in the eastern and central regions has a significant contribution to the total carbon emissions, while the urbanization level in the western region has no obvious effect on the total carbon emissions. Industrial structure will promote the growth of total carbon emissions, and technological advances will have a rather limited effect on the total carbon emissions. In order to further explore the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions, This paper uses the DEA model based on GML exponent to calculate the carbon emission efficiency. The results show that the carbon emission efficiency of our country decreases gradually according to "east, middle and west". Finally, the relationship between urbanization and carbon emission efficiency is analyzed by using Tobit model. It is found that the urbanization level has a significant inhibitory effect on the carbon emission efficiency, and the influence of urbanization level on the carbon emission efficiency in the western region is greater than the national average level. The urbanization level in eastern China has the least influence on the efficiency of carbon emissions. Finally, according to the analysis results, combined with the regional economic situation, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F299.2;F224

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