万州区滑坡灾害风险评价与管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 23:27

本文选题：三峡库区　切入点：滑坡　出处：《中国地质大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：地质环境的复杂性、地质灾害发生机理的时空差异性和不确定性,使得现有的理论水平和技术方法还很难实现对突发性地质灾害发生时间、发生地点、发生规模及影响范围的准确预测,从而难以保障地质灾害突发区人民财产及生命安全。因此,在现有地质灾害研究成果背景下,亟需寻找开展地质灾害灾前决策的有效途径和手段,开展地质灾害风险评价和管理对策研究对真正实现地质灾害减防控治具有重要意义。万州区目前是重庆市第二大城市,也是三峡库区的腹心。滑坡灾害是该区最主要的地质灾害灾种。近年来,随着三峡指挥部防治中心、万州区国土局、万州区地方乡镇办公室等多层级部门的相互配合和努力,万州区地质灾害风险管理体系虽已初具规模,但仍面临灾害预测难、管理对策不完善等问题。因此,论文以滑坡灾害风险评价与管理为主题,在系统分析国内外滑坡灾害风险评价与管理的研究现状以及总结前人研究成果的基础上,以重庆市万州区为范本,从区域和单体两个尺度研究滑坡灾害风险评价和风险管理对策。论文的研究成果将对万州区以及中国其他区域地质灾害减灾防治管理工作起到积极的指导作用,具有重要的理论和实际意义。论文从国内外滑坡灾害风险评价和滑坡灾害风险管理的研究现状进行了总结,指出了目前研究中存在的问题;从自然地理、气象水文、地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造、新构造运动、水文地质及万州区滑坡灾害发育及分布特征八个方面系统分析了万州区的区域地质环境背景;按照区域滑坡风险评价的基本流程,介绍了滑坡灾害风险评价指标的选择与分析、滑坡灾害易发性分析、滑坡灾害危险性分析、滑坡灾害易损性分析、滑坡灾害风险分析及滑坡灾害可接受准则六个环节的技术方法;以万州区为例,利用三种易发性分析模型开展了三种不同降雨工况下的滑坡灾害风险区划,并基于前人滑坡灾害风险可接受准则的研究成果评价了该区滑坡灾害风险的可接受程度;以塘角1号滑坡为例,在滑坡稳定性分区的基础上,开展了四种不同库水位降雨组合工况下的滑坡破坏概率计算,并基于最危险工况开展了滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害风险分析与评价;系统分析了万州区地质灾害风险管理现状,总结了我国地质灾害风险管理主要手段,继而从万州全区和单体滑坡灾害两个尺度提出万州区滑坡灾害风险管理对策的建议。论文在考虑不同强度降雨诱发滑坡的时间概率,探讨基于工况的区域滑坡灾害风险动态评价方法,针对三峡库区滑坡灾害风险特点,探讨单体滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害的风险评价方法,有针对性的提出区域和单体两种尺度的滑坡灾害风险管理对策方面具有一定的创新性。论文取得的主要研究成果如下:(1)总结了目前滑坡灾害风险评价与管理研究中存在的主要问题。通过分析前人的研究成果,从区域滑坡灾害风险评价、单体滑坡灾害风险评价和滑坡次生灾害风险评价三个方面总结了目前滑坡灾害风险评价研究中存在的问题,这些问题主要集中在研究的精细化、定量化和标准化不足等方面;同时从技术方法、应用对象等方面提出了目前滑坡风险管理中存在的问题,例如:风险可接受标准难以确定等。(2)总结了万州区滑坡灾害的发育及分布特征。通过分析万州区滑坡灾害历史编录资料及相关地质、气象基础资料,得到万州区滑坡灾害发育及分布特征。万州区以土质滑坡为主,滑坡规模主要为中型,平面形态上多发育为箕形,剖面上多发育为凸形和阶梯形。滑坡滑体物质主要来源于第四系崩坡积、冲洪积和残坡积物,其中,土质滑坡滑体物质主要为粉质粘土夹碎块石,岩质滑坡滑体物质主要为砂岩或泥岩、砂岩互层;滑带主要发育在构造上的软弱结构面和砂泥岩接触面中;滑床主要发育在侏罗系中统上沙溪庙组(J2s)地层上。此外,该区滑坡变形破坏机制以渐进式破坏为主。此外,得到万州区滑坡在空间上具有沿长江及其支流水系呈条带状分布、沿斜坡高程呈垂直分带分布、依附区域背斜两翼顺向坡地区及城市建设区集中分布的特点。在时间上,滑坡发生主要集中在2003年三峡库区提高库水位以后,且尤以2003年至2007年145-156m水位期间更为集中;同时,还集中在6、7、8月份,5月份和9、10月份次之。(3)分析并评价了万州区滑坡灾害风险。按照区域滑坡风险分析及评价的流程,通过万州区滑坡灾害易发性分析、危险性分析、承灾体易损性分析以及承灾体经济价值和人员数量估算等环节,获得万州区滑坡灾害人口和经济风险区划图,并基于前人提出的滑坡灾害风险可接受标准,获得万州区滑坡灾害风险可接受程度分布图。其中,滑坡灾害易发性是在滑坡灾害易发性评价指标筛选和分级的基础上,选择逻辑回归模型、支持向量机模型、决策树模型三种数理统计模型对比分析获得;滑坡灾害危险性分析中滑坡发生时间概率将通过三种不同工况下的降雨重现期分析获得;承灾体易损性将基于统计资料分析,通过半定量的方式确定。经计算,万州区风险等级较高的区域主要集中在万州主城区,且沿河流水系呈带状分布的特征,高程较高的区域风险等级较低。万州区滑坡灾害经济风险和人口风险最大的工况为日降雨量50mm工况。在不考虑万州区治理工程的情况下,该区滑坡灾害年经济风险总体为不可接受,年人口风险达到可接受-可容忍范围。(4)分析并评价了塘角1号滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害风险。论文基于塘角1号滑坡位移监测资料分析,开展滑坡稳定性分区,选择典型计算剖面;结合库水位与滑坡变形监测数据分析,确定了4种库水位降雨组合计算工况,模拟各分区地下水位,并计算破坏概率;基于破坏概率计算结果,确定最危险工况,并确定该工况下,塘角1号滑坡可能的入江范围,计算涌浪高度,确定涌浪灾害影响范围;结合塘角1号滑坡及其涌浪灾害影响范围内承灾体易损性分析和价值估算,获得最危险工况下塘角1号滑坡及其涌浪灾害经济风险和人口风险分布图。经计算,最危险工况下,塘角1号滑坡风险最大区域主要集中在前缘中部,塘角1号滑坡年经济风险和年人员伤亡风险均达到可接受水平。(5)提出了万州区滑坡灾害风险管理对策建议。从基本概念和工作流程两方面介绍了我国地质灾害风险管理的主要手段,即:地质灾害群测群防和滑坡灾害应急响应,指出了目前两种手段存在的主要问题。通过万州区资料收集调查,从万州区地质灾害风险管理实践方面,系统分析了万州区地质灾害风险管理的现状,指出万州区地质灾害风险管理存在的问题。结合万州区滑坡灾害风险评价成果,从全区的角度提出了滑坡灾害风险管理对策,包括:加强全区滑坡灾害点调查和监测工作、完善滑坡灾害应急预案、加强专业技术人员培训、优化各职能部门的组织结构及协助模式、建设风险动态管理系统、加大滑坡灾害风险控制投入、优化城市建设规划方案以及加强公众的教育活动和公共信息服务等。结合塘角1号滑坡风险评价成果,从单体的角度,提出了单体滑坡风险管理对策,包括:加强监测系统建设,提高滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害应急响应能力。
[Abstract]:The complexity of geological environment, geological disaster occurrence mechanism of spatial difference and uncertainty, which makes the theoretical level and the current method is difficult to realize the time of occurrence of unexpected geological disasters occurred, accurately predict the scale and influence scope, it is difficult to guarantee the people's property and life safety of sudden geological disasters. Therefore, in the existing research results of geological disaster background, need to find effective ways to carry out geological disaster disaster before the decision and the means to carry out geological disaster risk assessment and management countermeasures to realize geological disaster reduction has important significance to the prevention and control treatment. Wanzhou district is the second largest city in Chongqing, is the center of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The landslide disaster is the area of the main geological disaster prevention center. In recent years, with the Three Gorges headquarters, Wanzhou District Land Bureau, Wanzhou district local township office. Cooperate with each other and effort level departments, the risk management system of Wanzhou geological disaster has taken shape, but still faces the disaster prediction difficult, management is imperfect. Therefore, based on the risk assessment and management of landslide disaster as the theme, based on systematic analysis of the domestic and foreign research status and management of landslide disaster risk assessment and summary the results of previous studies, in Wanzhou District of Chongqing city as the sample, and two single from the regional landslide scale of risk assessment and risk management measures. The research results of Wanzhou district and its regional China he geological hazards prevention and management work has played an active role in guiding, has important theoretical and practical the significance. This paper from the domestic and foreign research status of landslide disaster risk assessment and risk management of landslide hazard are summarized, and points out the existing problems in the current study; from Natural geography, meteorology and hydrology, topography, lithology, geological structure, neotectonic movement, the development of landslide hydrology geology and the District of Wanzhou and the distribution of the eight aspects of the analysis of regional environmental geology in Wanzhou area; according to the basic flow of regional landslide risk assessment, introduces the selection and analysis of landslide disaster risk evaluation index the analysis of landslide susceptibility, hazard analysis of landslide, landslide disaster vulnerability analysis and risk analysis of landslide hazard and landslide acceptable method criterion of six aspects; taking Wanzhou district as an example, using three kinds of susceptibility analysis model to the three kinds of landslide under the condition of different rainfall risk division, and the results of previous studies of landslide disaster risk acceptance criterion based on the evaluation of the acceptability of the landslide disaster risk; to Tangjiao No. 1 Landslide as an example, the stability of landslide The basis, carried out four different water level rainfall combined conditions of landslide failure probability calculation, and based on the most dangerous condition is carried out and the secondary landslide surge hazard risk analysis and evaluation system; analysis of the current situation of geological disaster risk management in Wanzhou, summarizes the main methods of geological disaster risk management in China, and then from Wanzhou and the single landslide two scale proposed countermeasures for Wanzhou District landslide disaster risk management. In this paper considering the different intensity of rainfall induced landslide time probability of dynamic regional landslide disaster risk assessment method based on working condition, the landslide hazard risk characteristics of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the risk assessment of single landslide surge and secondary disasters method there is, has certain innovation in this area and two single scale landslide disaster risk management strategies. The paper take The main research achievements are as follows: (1) summarizes the main problems existing in the research and management of landslide hazard and risk assessment. Through the analysis of previous research results, from the evaluation of landslide hazard risk, disaster risk assessment and the secondary disasters of landslide risk assessment in three aspects summarizes the present research of landslide hazard and risk assessment of the problem single landslide fine, these problems are mainly concentrated in the research, quantification and standardization issues; at the same time from the technical method, put forward the existing landslide risk management problems in the application object, for example: it is difficult to determine the risk acceptance criteria. (2) summarizes the development and distribution of landslide disaster Wanzhou District Wanzhou district. Through the analysis of landslide disaster history and geological logging data, meteorological data base, get the landslide in Wanzhou district development and distribution characteristics in Wanzhou district. Soil landslide, landslide scale mainly for the medium, on the plane form developed listric profile, developed into a convex shape and a ladder. Landslide body material is mainly derived from Quaternary colluvial, alluvial and residual slope sediments, the soil landslide Landslide material is mainly silty clay clip fragments of stone, landslide material is mainly sandstone or mudstone interbedded sandstone rock landslide; sliding zone mainly develops in the structure of the weak structural surface and sand mudstone contact surface; the sliding bed is mainly developed in the Jurassic Shaxi Temple group (J2s) on the ground. In addition, the sliding slope based deformation mechanism with the gradual failure. In addition, Wanzhou landslide in space has banded distribution along the Yangtze River and its tributaries, the vertical zonal distribution along the slope height, attachment area anticline, slope area and city characteristics along the construction area concentrated in time, After the landslide mainly improve the reservoir water level of Three Gorges Reservoir Area in 2003, and especially during the period from 2003 to 2007, the 145-156m level is more concentrated; at the same time, also concentrated in 6,7,8 months, 9,10 months in May and the second. (3) analysis and evaluation of the landslide disaster in Wanzhou area. According to the risk analysis and evaluation of landslide risk areas of the process and through the Wanzhou landslide susceptibility analysis, risk analysis, the analysis of the vulnerability of disaster bearing body and economic value and estimating the number of personnel and other aspects, Wanzhou district population and economic landslide disaster risk zoning map, and based on the previous landslide disaster to the risk acceptance criteria, obtain the landslide in Wanzhou area acceptable risk degree distribution. Among them, the landslide disaster is the basis of the susceptibility evaluation index selection and classification in the landslide disaster, choose the logistic regression model, SVM model, decision tree The analysis model of three kinds of statistical models were compared; the occurrence time of probability will pass under the three different conditions of rainfall return period analysis of landslide hazard analysis of landslide; bearing analysis of vulnerability based on statistical data, determined by semi quantitative method. After calculation, Wanzhou district risk areas are mainly high grade concentrated in the main urban area of Wanzhou, and along the rivers. The zonal distribution features, regional risk level is low. The high altitude condition in Wanzhou District landslide disaster economic risk and population risk for 50mm maximum daily rainfall conditions. Without considering the Wanzhou district governance project under the condition of the landslide disaster risk for overall economic the acceptable year, population risk acceptable - tolerable range. (4) analysis and evaluation of the Tangjiao No. 1 landslide surge and secondary disaster risk. The Tangjiao No. 1 Landslide Displacement Monitoring Based on measured data Material analysis, landslide stability zoning, typical calculation section; monitoring data analysis combined with the reservoir water level and the landslide deformation conditions was determined to calculate the 4 kinds of reservoir water level rainfall combination, simulation of underground water level of each partition, and calculate failure probability; failure probability calculation based on the results, to determine the most dangerous conditions, and to determine the conditions into the river the range of possible Tangjiao No. 1 landslide, surge height calculation, determine the scope of influence of surge disaster; combined with the influence range of Tangjiao No. 1 Landslide and its surge in disaster disaster vulnerability analysis and evaluation, to obtain the most dangerous conditions Tangjiao No. 1 landslide and its surge disaster economic risk and risk distribution of the population by chart. Calculation of the most dangerous conditions, Tangjiao No. 1 landslide risk areas are mainly concentrated in the central front, Tangjiao No. 1 Landslide year economic risk and risk years casualties reached acceptable levels. (5) proposed 000 State of landslide disaster risk management countermeasures. From the two aspects of the basic concepts and work flow of the main means of management of geological disaster risk in China: the monitoring and prevention of geological disasters and landslides disaster emergency response, points out the main problems at present two methods exist. Through collecting survey data of Wanzhou District, from the geological disaster Wanzhou district risk management practices, analyzed the status quo of Wanzhou geological disaster risk management, points out the existing Wanzhou geological disaster risk management. Combined with the evaluation of Wanzhou landslide disaster risk results, proposed landslide disaster risk management strategies, from the perspective of the region include: strengthening the landslide investigation and monitoring work, improve the landslide disaster emergency plan, strengthen the training of professional technical personnel, optimize the organizational structure and assist mode of functional departments, construction of dynamic risk management system, increase the Landslide risk control input, optimization planning of city construction and strengthen the public education and public information service. Combined with the Tangjiao No. 1 landslide risk assessment results, from a single point of view, put forward the single landslide risk management measures, including: strengthening the monitoring system construction, improve the landslide and secondary surge disaster emergency response capability.

【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P642.22

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