中国对日本出口隐含碳排放的测度及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 04:32

  本文选题：中国对日本出口　切入点：隐含碳　出处：《东北财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：全球经济一体化的发展使得国际贸易对环境的影响日趋显著,国际社会对气候变化越来越重视,减缓温室气体的排放已经成为各国的共识。加入WTO之后,中国经济迅速发展,能源消费和污染排放也迅速增加,尤其是碳排放的增加,这使得中国在国际社会上面临巨大的压力。中国作为贸易大国,其碳排放的急剧增长很大一部分是为满足发达国家的生产和生活消费而排放的,通过国际贸易消费者可以将与其消费有关的环境污染转移到其他国家,从而使得像中国这样的出口大国承担了本应由进口国承担的碳排放,通过国际贸易,中国替其他国家转移了相当可观的碳排放。本文选择日本作为研究对象,依据投入产出原理,对2002-2012年间中国对日本出口贸易中的隐含碳排放进行了系统研究,本文的研究方法对于研究中国与其他贸易伙伴国贸易隐含碳问题也具有适用性。本文将中国对日本出口隐含碳排放分析分为五个部分,从不同方面对中国对日本出口隐含碳排放问题进行了研究分析。本文的第一部分为绪论,介绍了本文选题的背景、研究意义、国内外学者就贸易隐含碳排放相关问题的研究现状、本文的结构框架、研究方法以及创新和不足。第二部分为理论基础,具体包括对进出口隐含碳排放相关的外部性理论和庇古税理论进行分析和阐述。第三部分为本文的重点章节,根据之前学者的研究,服务贸易所产生的隐含碳排放量有限,因此本文对中日服务贸易中的隐含碳排放不再做研究,仅研究中国对日本货物出口贸易中的隐含碳排放。由于中国投入产出表和中国能源统计年鉴中对行业的划分具有较好的一致性,本文据此将中国对日本出口贸易划分为18个行业,并对UN Comtrade数据库中2002-2012年中日分行业贸易数据进行了行业整合,结合中国统计年鉴中的2002、2007和2012年投入产出表,2005和2010年投入产出延长表,利用投入产出模型对2002年到2012年中国对日本出口隐含碳排放量进行了测算,得到了研究区间内各年份整体和18个细分行业出口隐含碳排放量,测算结果表明,研究期间内日本通过从中国进口商品,向中国转移了大量碳排放。同时对研究期间内不同年份和各行业的出口隐含碳排放量进行了比较和分析,得到了研究期间内各年份出口隐含碳的整体变化趋势,同时对不同行业隐含碳排放进行了比较,并根据测算结果将各细分行业分为了高、中、低碳排行业。在第四部分,本文利用基于投入产出模型的结构分解分析法对2002年到2012年中国对日本出口隐含碳排放的影响因素进行分析,得到了碳排强度、生产结构、出口结构和出口规模四个因素对隐含碳排放量的变化产生的影响。结果表明,中国对日本出口隐含碳排放的变化主要取决于碳排强度和出口规模的共同作用,其中碳排强度对出口隐含碳排放变化的影响表现为负效应,出口规模对出口隐含碳排放变化的影响表现为正效应。本文进而通过具体分析这四个影响因素在不同时间跨度内对不同行业出口隐含碳排放量的影响,分别得出了四个因素对各行业在不同时间跨度内的影响作用,有助于后文得出合理应对和减少出口隐含碳排放的措施和方案。本文第五部分对第三、四部分研究内容进行了总结,根据中国对日本出口隐含碳在研究区间内各年份的排放量和影响排放量变化因素的分析结果,给出具体的政策建议:第一,可以鼓励和支持传统制造业企业加大研发投入,积极创新,提升制造业生产技术水平,从而提升能源利用率以减少单位产量的隐含碳排放量;第二,优化制造业出口结构,从影响因素分析结果来看,贸易结构的变化给制造业各行业既产生了正效应也产生了负效应,因此,减少高碳排、高能耗产品的出口比重有望减少中国对日本整体出口隐含碳排放;第三,借鉴发达国家减排经验,加强国际交流合作,学习日本在节能减排上的经验、积极引进CDM项目都是可行之策。第四、积极参与国际气候谈判,坚持共同但有区别的责任原则,作为出口大国,中国通过出口贸易替日本等发达国家转移了大量的隐含碳排放,在国际气候谈判中中国应坚持共同但有区别的原则,以减缓中国在国际社会上的减排压力。
[Abstract]:The development of global economic integration makes the influence of international trade on the environment is more and more obvious, the international community more and more attention to climate change, greenhouse gas emissions has become the consensus of all countries. After joining WTO, China rapid economic development, energy consumption and pollution emissions also increased rapidly, especially the increase of carbon emissions, which makes China face the huge pressure in the international society. China as a trading power, the rapid growth of carbon emissions is a large part of the emissions to meet production and consumption in developed countries, through the international trade and consumption of consumers can be related to environmental pollution transfer to other countries, so as China such exporters bear the by importing countries bear the carbon emissions through international trade, Chinese for other countries to transfer considerable carbon emissions. This paper chose Japan as The object of study, based on input-output principle, for 2002-2012 years China of Japanese export trade in carbon emissions were studied. The research method is also applicable for the study of China and other trading partners of Embodied Carbon problem. This paper will Chinese exports to Japan carbon emission analysis is divided into five parts, from different aspects of the research and analysis of Chinese carbon emissions embodied in exports to Japan issues. The first part of this paper is the introduction, introduces the background, research significance, domestic and foreign scholars on the research status of carbon emissions embodied in trade related issues, the framework of this paper, research methods and innovations and shortcomings. The second part is the theory the foundation, including the import and export of embodied carbon emissions related to the externality theory and Pigou tax theory is described and analyzed. The third part is the focus of this chapter, According to previous research, service trade of embodied carbon emissions is limited, so the carbon emissions on the day of service trade no longer do research, only on carbon emissions embodied in China of Japanese goods in the export trade. Due to the classification of industry Chinese input output table and Chinese energy statistical yearbook is consistent well, this paper will Chinese export trade to Japan is divided into 18 sectors, and the UN Comtrade database in 2002-2012 years on trade data of industry integration, combined with Chinese Statistical Yearbook in 20022007 and 2012 input-output table of 2005 and 2010 input-output table extension, using input-output model on 2002 by 2012 Chinese embodied carbon emissions of Japan's exports were estimated by the year of the interval overall and 18 sub sectors of export Embodied Carbon emissions, The results show that during the study period in Japan from China imported goods, to Chinese transfer of a large number of carbon emissions. At the same time in different years during the study period and the industry's export of embodied carbon emissions were compared and analyzed, the study period each year the overall change trend of export of embodied carbon in different industries, at the same time implied carbon emissions are compared, and the various industry segments in the high, according to the calculation results in low carbon industries. In the fourth part, this paper uses the decomposition analysis method to the influence of 2012 China carbon emissions embodied in exports to Japan in 2002 were used to analyze the factors structure based on input-output model, the carbon intensity of production structure changes of export structure and export scale of four factors on the embodied carbon emissions. The results show that the change of Chinese carbon emissions embodied in exports to Japan mainly depends on The interaction of carbon emission intensity and export scale, the carbon emission intensity effect of implicit change of carbon emission shows a negative effect on exports, export scale on the export effect of implicit carbon emissions change has a positive effect. This paper through the specific analysis of the four factors in different time span on the export of Embodied Carbon in different industries emissions were obtained, four factors influence on various industries in different time span, there are measures and solutions to the reasonably deal with and reduce export of Embodied Carbon emission. The fifth part summarizes the study content of the third, fourth part, according to the analysis results China Embodied Carbon in the research range of the year of emissions and emissions impact factors of exports to Japan, given the specific policy recommendations: first, to encourage and support the traditional manufacturing enterprises to increase R & D 鎶曞叆,绉�鏋佸垱鏂�,鎻愬崌鍒堕，

本文编号：1573362