碳减排约束下福建经济增长速度研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 04:04

本文选题：碳减排　切入点：经济增长　出处：《福建师范大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：碳减排和经济增长是人类共同关心的话题,也是学术界比较关注的一个热点。由《京都议定书》可知,在2008年-2012年期间,第一批做出承诺碳减排的发达国家温室气体排放量,相比于上世纪九十年代,碳排放要平均减少5%左右。在2015年巴黎气候变化大会的里程碑式的成果《巴黎协定》终于达成,意味着碳减排首次得到大部分国家一致认可。在此背景下,我国明确了碳减排的任务目标和时间表,并作为国民经济和社会发展的重大战略之一。在中国经济进入改革深水区之际,如何通过供给侧改革,保持中国经济新常态,在维持经济增长速度在可控范围内实施碳减排,自然成为研究的热点之一。本文首先通过理论模型分析,将能源消耗引入索罗增长模型和内生增长模型中,得出一致结论,即能源消费约束会对经济增长造成影响。然后具体分析福建省各种能源消费情况,并分析碳排放强度的影响因素,发现能源消费结构,能源强度是影响碳排放强度的主要因素。接着,通过构造基于目前碳减排强度、基于2030年排放放峰值为约束条件和没有碳排放约束等三种情形下的目标函数,运用最优控制理论和最大值原理,分别分析出三种情形下碳减排对经济增长速度的影响,并对结果比较发现,不同的视角下经济增长速度影响因素不同。然后以福建省为例,再从定量角度代入数据进行计量经济学分析,并与前面理论分析结果进行对比分析,发现从理论和事实定量角度阐述福建省碳减排约束下经济增长速度的问题所得出的结果是吻合的。最后本文立足福建省生态文明建设,从七个方面提出相应的政策建议,并对碳减排约束与经济增长的关系研究进行展望。
[Abstract]:Carbon abatement and economic growth are topics of common concern to mankind and a hot topic of concern in academia. According to the Kyoto Protocol, between 2008 and 2012, the first group of developed countries to commit to reducing carbon emissions from developed countries made their greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon emissions have been cut by an average of about 5% compared to -10s. The landmark outcome of the Paris Climate change Conference in 2015 was finally reached. This means that for the first time the majority of countries have unanimously agreed to reduce carbon emissions. In this context, China has clearly defined the target and timetable for reducing carbon emissions. And as one of the major strategies for national economic and social development. How to maintain the new normal state of China's economy through supply-side reform and implement carbon emission reduction within the controllable scope of maintaining the rate of economic growth when China's economy enters the deep water area of reform. Firstly, through theoretical model analysis, energy consumption is introduced into Solow growth model and endogenous growth model, and a consistent conclusion is drawn. That is, energy consumption constraints will have an impact on economic growth. Then, we analyze the energy consumption situation in Fujian Province, and analyze the factors affecting carbon emission intensity, and find out the energy consumption structure. Energy intensity is the main factor affecting carbon emission intensity. Then, by constructing the objective function based on the current carbon emission reduction intensity, the peak emission emission in 2030 as a constraint condition and no carbon emission constraint. Based on the optimal control theory and the maximum principle, this paper analyzes the influence of carbon emission reduction on the economic growth rate under three conditions, and finds that the factors affecting economic growth rate are different from different angles of view. Then, take Fujian Province as an example, Then the econometrics analysis is carried out from the quantitative point of view, and the results are compared with those of the previous theoretical analysis. It is found that the results obtained from the theoretical and factual quantitative analysis of the economic growth rate under the restraint of carbon emission reduction in Fujian Province are consistent. Finally, based on the construction of ecological civilization in Fujian Province, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations from seven aspects. The relationship between carbon abatement constraints and economic growth is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：福建师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F127

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