中国足迹家族与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 04:24

本文选题：足迹家族　切入点：足迹整合　出处：《中央民族大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自Rees在1992年提出生态足迹分析法,这种代表资源占用的评价指标得到广泛的应用,其研究方法、对象和范畴的创新也被相继提出。随着经济的发展和社会的进步,资源枯竭、温室效应、极端天气等环境影响日益扩大,生态环境问题从单一局部型逐步向复合全面型转变。应当前生态问题全球化复杂化的需要,足迹家族与足迹整合被逐渐提出并成为研究热点。本文统一利用国家生态足迹账户NFA计算了我国1978-2014年的土地足迹、化石能源足迹和水足迹以及相应的承载力,采用"纵横向拉开档次法"将上述足迹及承载力指标加权整合为综合足迹与综合承载力,并分别对综合足迹与GDP、三大足迹与GDP的关系进行向量自回归VAR模型与误差修正VEC模型的计量分析。1978-2014年足迹家族分析的主要结论如下:1.我国总体生态压力不断增大,经济增长导致综合足迹增加。综合足迹从0.6401ghm2增至1.5276ghm2,综合承载力从0.8650ghm2减至0.6062ghm2,1991年出现生态赤字并逐渐扩大。存在从GDP到综合足迹的Granger因果关系,说明经济增长伴随着土地、能源和水资源的消费增加的粗放式发展方式。2.土地资源濒临生态赤字,城建规划影响土地足迹变动。土地足迹从0.5651ghm2减至0.4850ghm2,土地承载力从0.6760ghm2减至0.4971ghm2,生态盈余从0.1109ghm2减至0.0121ghm2。在土地足迹的VEC模型中,内生变量为化石能源足迹和GDP,对GDP的冲击表现为负响应,影响程度为50%贡献最大,考虑城镇化影响。3.化石能源足迹赤字激增,水电等清洁能源可缓解其压力。化石能源足迹从0.5268ghm2增至2.7516ghm2,化石能源承载力从0.1056ghm2减至0.0844ghm2,生态赤字从0.4572ghm2增至2.6672ghm2。在化石能源足迹的VEC模型中,内生变量为水足迹,对水足迹的冲击表现为负响应,影响程度为25%贡献较小,考虑水力发电影响。4.可利用淡水不断减少,农业用水占比较大,大幅耗水对经济有负影响。水足迹从0.8375ghm2增至1.1887ghm2,水承载力从1.8158ghm2减至1.2389ghm2,生态盈余从0.9783ghm2减至0.0502ghm2并于2011年出现赤字。在水足迹的VEC模型中,内生变量为土地足迹和GDP,对土地足迹的冲击表现为正响应,影响程度为54%贡献最大,考虑农业用水导致。在GDP的VEC模型中,内生变量为水足迹,对水足迹的冲击表现为负响应,虽影响程度为7%贡献较弱,仍可认为影响存在。5.足迹家族整合具有一定现实意义,综合足迹可作为有效的评价指标。基于上述结论,本文提出了从宏观方面把握政策方向,加强执法监督力度,注重城区建设质量,加强电力科技投入,控制水体污染等几方面建议,并对足迹整合研究提出展望。本文的创新之处在于,使用同种方法计算足迹家族,以"分-总"角度进行足迹整合分析生态占用,再以"总-分"角度探究综合足迹、足迹家族与经济增长的计量关系,说明了综合足迹与足迹家族可作为核算生态占用的比较全面的指标,使足迹整合具有一定实际意义。
[Abstract]:Since Rees put forward the ecological footprint analysis method in 1992, this evaluation index, which represents the occupation of resources, has been widely used, and its research methods, objects and categories have been innovated one after another. With the development of economy and the progress of society, the resources are exhausted. Greenhouse Effect, extreme weather and other environmental impacts are increasingly expanding, and ecological environmental problems are gradually changing from a single local type to a composite comprehensive one. Footprint family and footprint integration have gradually been proposed and become a research hotspot. In this paper, the land footprint, fossil energy footprint, water footprint and corresponding carrying capacity of China from 1978 to 2014 are calculated by using the National Ecological footprint account (NFA). The "longitudinal and horizontal pull open grade" method is used to combine the above mentioned footprints and bearing capacity indexes into a comprehensive footprint and a comprehensive bearing capacity. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. The total ecological pressure of our country is increasing, and the econometric analysis of the relationship between the comprehensive footprint and GDP, the three major footprints and the GDP is carried out by using the vector autoregressive VAR model and the error-modified VEC model. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. The comprehensive footprint increased from 0.6401ghm2 to 1.5276ghm2, and the comprehensive carrying capacity decreased from 0.8650ghm2 to 0.6062ghm2.In 1991, the ecological deficit appeared and gradually expanded. There is a Granger causality relationship from GDP to comprehensive footprint, which indicates that economic growth is accompanied by land. An extensive approach to increased consumption of energy and water resources. 2. Land resources are on the verge of an ecological deficit. Urban construction planning affects the change of land footprint. The land footprint is reduced from 0.5651ghm2 to 0.4850ghm2, the land carrying capacity is reduced from 0.6760ghm2 to 0.4971ghm2, and the ecological surplus is reduced from 0.1109ghm2 to 0.0121ghm2.In the VEC model of land footprint, the endogenous variables are fossil energy footprint and GDP, and the response to the impact of GDP is negative. The most significant contribution was to 50%, taking into account the impact of urbanization. 3. The fossil energy footprint deficit soared. The fossil energy footprint increased from 0.5268ghm2 to 2.7516ghm2, the fossil energy carrying capacity decreased from 0.1056ghm2 to 0.0844ghm2, and the ecological deficit increased from 0.4572ghm2 to 2.6672ghm2.In the VEC model of fossil energy footprint, the endogenous variable is water footprint. The impact on the water footprint shows a negative response, with a small contribution of 25%. Considering the impact of hydroelectricity, the available fresh water is continuously decreasing, and the agricultural water consumption is relatively large. The water footprint increased from 0.8375ghm2 to 1.1887ghm2, the water carrying capacity was reduced from 1.8158ghm2 to 1.2389ghm2, the ecological surplus was reduced from 0.9783ghm2 to 0.0502ghm2 and the deficit occurred in 2011. The endogenous variables are land footprint and VEC, and the impact on the land footprint is positive response, and the impact degree is 54%, considering agricultural water use. In the VEC model of GDP, the endogenous variable is water footprint, and the impact on water footprint is negative. Although the influence degree of 7% is relatively weak, it can still be considered that the influence exists .5.The integration of footprint family has certain practical significance, and the comprehensive footprint can be used as an effective evaluation index. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward to grasp the policy direction from the macro aspect. Strengthen the law enforcement supervision, pay attention to the quality of urban construction, strengthen the electric power science and technology investment, control the water pollution and so on several aspects suggestion, and put forward the prospect to the footprint conformity research. The innovation of this paper lies in the use of the same method to calculate the footprint family, The footprint integration and analysis of ecological occupation are carried out from the perspective of "sub-total", and then the econometric relationship between the footprint family and economic growth is explored from the perspective of "total footprint". It is shown that the comprehensive footprint and footprint family can be used as a more comprehensive index for calculating ecological occupation, which makes the footprint integration have certain practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：中央民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F124;F224

【相似文献】