中国生产性服务业集聚与制造业转型升级互动效应的检验与仿真研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 22:22

本文选题：生产性服务业集聚　切入点：制造业转型升级　出处：《浙江财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国制造业发展一直面临着大而不强、竞争能力弱、要素投入与生产工艺低端锁定的问题,制造业发展模式明显滞后于经济发展水平,亟待转型升级。而生产性服务业发展和集聚会促进制造业的转型升级,主要体现在提高制造业的生产效率、优化产业的内部结构、提高制造业环境友好型水平和社会服务型水平等方面。反过来,制造业的转型升级也会在一定的程度上影响生产性服务业,推动生产性服务业的的发展和集聚。本文结合新经济地理学、经济系统论、计量经济学和系统动力学,首先,综述生产性服务业集聚与制造业转型的相关理论及其互动效应机理和目前的研究现状;其次,用Krugman集中指数测度生产性服务业集聚度,并将制造业转型升级分解为转型和升级两个部分,转型包括环境友好型和社会服务型两个方面,升级包括产业结构高级化和生产效率两个方面,再利用时序全局主成分分析法将这四个方面的9个指标进行因子分析,得出制造业转型升级综合指标,拟合分析制造业转型升级综合指标与生产性服务业集聚度;再次,构建一个包括生产性服务业集聚子系统、制造业转型升级子系统、制造业产业结构高级化子系统、制造业生产效率子系统、环境友好型子系统、社会服务型子系统的经济大系统,对六个子系统的影响因素分别进行论述并提出假设;复次,基于相关理论对六个子系统构建计量模型,并对这六个子系统进行检验和估计,定量分析系统中的各个影响因素并给出相关结论;另外,基于系统动力学理论,构建经济大系统的因果关系图和系统流图,运用计量结果对经济大系统方程式的系数进行赋值,然后仿真模拟生产性服务业集聚和制造业转型升级之间的互动效应;最后,得出结论并提出相应的政策建议。主要结论:(1)中国生产性服务业集聚度总体上呈现稳步上升趋势,但具有明显的地域差异,呈现沿海地区向西部内陆地区递减的趋势,与地区经济发展水平呈正向弱相关关系。中国制造业转型升级综合指标先平稳波动后快速上升,呈现长三角、珠三角和京津冀三个地区带头发展,其他地区跟随发展的趋势。生产性服务业集聚度和制造业转型升级综合指标拟合程度高,发展趋势较为一致,在一定程度上证明了生产性服务业集聚与制造业转型升级之间存在正向关系。(2)随着制造业的转型升级,作为中间投入品的生产性服务业的需求量也会上升,因此制造业的转型升级会带动生产性服务业的集聚;反过来,生产性服务业集聚会使制造业的内部分工更加专业化,会使制造业的交易成本下降,同时也会推动制造业技术创新和进步,进而推动制造业转型和升级。生产性服务业集聚和制造业转型升级两者形成一个正相关的互动系统,而技术进步、创新投入、知识溢出和资本投入等因素是该系统的重要影响因素。(3)构建系统仿真模型,仿真模拟2003-2014年生产性服务业集聚度与制造业转型升级综合指标之间的互动效应,模拟结果与实际值拟合度高。调整模型方程任意一个外生变量的系数,都会导致生产性服务业集聚度和制造业转型升级综合指标的改变,再一次证明生产性服务业集聚和制造业转型升级存在互动。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, Chinese manufacturing industry has been facing a big but not strong, weak competition ability, input factors and production process of low-end locking problems, development model of manufacturing industry lags behind the level of economic development, urgent need to upgrade. And the development of producer services agglomeration will promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, mainly reflected in to improve the manufacturing efficiency, optimize the internal structure of industry, improve manufacturing environment friendly level and social service level. In turn, the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry will also affect the production service industry to a certain extent, promote the development of producer service industry agglomeration and combining with the new economic geography. Economy, system theory, econometrics and system dynamics, firstly, summarizes the theories of producer service industry and manufacturing industry transformation and its interaction mechanism and current research Secondly, using Krugman; centralized production service industry index to measure the agglomeration degree, and the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading is divided into two parts, two aspects including the transformation of environmental friendly and social service, the upgrade includes two aspects: the advanced industrial structure and production efficiency, and then use the timing of global principal component analysis the 9 indexes of these four aspects to carry on the factor analysis, the comprehensive index of manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading, the fitting analysis of the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry and the comprehensive index of producer services agglomeration; thirdly, to build a cluster of productive service industry system, upgrade system transformation of the manufacturing industry, the manufacturing industry structure system, manufacturing efficiency subsystem, environment friendly subsystem, economic system of social service system, the influencing factors of the six subsystems are discussed and put forward the false Then, related theory; econometric model of the six subsystems and based on test and estimation of the six subsystems, the quantitative analysis of the impact of various factors in the system and gives the relevant conclusions; in addition, based on system dynamics theory, flow diagram causality diagram and system construction and economic system, the assignment of measurement results coefficient of economic system equation, the interaction effect and Simulation of producer service industry and manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading; finally, draw conclusions and put forward the corresponding policy suggestions. The main conclusions: (1) overall showing a steady upward trend Chinese producer service industry, but has obvious geographical differences. Showing diminishing coastal areas to inland areas in the western trend, and the level of regional economic development positively to the weak correlation. China transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry comprehensive index to smooth fluctuations The rapid rise, has led the development of the Yangtze River Delta, the three regions in the Pearl River Delta and Beijing Tianjin Hebei, follow the development of other areas. The trend and the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing index high fitting degree of producer service industry, the development trend is the same, to a certain extent that productive service industry agglomeration and transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry there is a positive relationship. (2) with the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, as the intermediate inputs of the productive service industry demand will rise, thus the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry will drive the agglomeration of producer services; in turn, the productive service industry in the manufacturing industry of the internal division of Labor Party more professional that will make the transaction cost in the manufacturing sector dropped, will also promote the manufacturing technology innovation and progress, and promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry. Producer service industry and manufacturing industry to upgrade their formation A positive interaction system, and technological progress, innovation, knowledge spillover and capital investment are important factors affecting the system. (3) build system simulation model, simulation of 2003-2014 years of production service industry agglomeration and industry transformation and upgrading of the interactive effect between the comprehensive index, the simulation results and the actual value high degree of fitting. The adjusted coefficient model equation of any exogenous variables, will lead to agglomeration of producer services and manufacturing industry to upgrade the comprehensive index change, once again proved that the producer service industry and manufacturing industry there is an interactive upgrade.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719;F424

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