中国不同汇率管理机制下货币政策有效性研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 22:10

本文选题：货币政策　切入点：人民币汇率　出处：《云南财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：货币政策从实际汇率波动的角度,来影响整个宏观经济,被称之为货币政策的汇率渠道。一国货币政策的执行情况和汇率制度共同影响着一国宏观经济的整体运行。我国于2005年7月21日,由中国人民银行发布消息,宣布关于汇率管理机制实施改革,实行以市场供求为基础的、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制[1]。这次的汇率改革主要内容有:一是汇率将按照外汇市场的供求情况进行浮动,可以体现汇率的价格信号作用;二是汇率可以根据对外贸易的平衡状况来调节汇率浮动的幅度,使得汇率机制更富有弹性;三是汇率将参考一篮子货币,一篮子货币包括美元、欧元、日元等,人民币不再片面地钉住单一美元。此次的汇率制度改革可以保持人民币币值的基本稳定,并使汇率逐步实现市场化,加大了汇率对国际收支和实体经济的调节作用。这也标志着我国的汇率管理机制走向弹性汇率体制。自2005年我国实行了汇率制度改革后,在新的管理浮动汇率机制下,人民币汇率能够按照市场的供求关系进行波动,我国对资本的管制越来越少,逐步转变为自由流动的资本和有管理的浮动汇率制,这也有助于央行货币政策独立性的提高。本文阐述了管理浮动汇率对货币政策独立性影响的理论过程,发现相比与固定汇率制,浮动汇率能够有效缓解外部冲击,进而增强货币政策的独立性;但是过度的汇率波动则会由经常项目渠道和资产负债表渠道来影响宏观经济[2],从而削弱货币政策的独立性。本论文通过结合国内外汇率制度的相关理论和国际经验,运用当代主流的计量经济学的研究方法,通过对1994年1月至2014年12月的经济月度数据,进行分阶段的实证研究和对比分析,运用统计方法,检验相关变量之间的关系,了解中国货币政策的汇率传导渠道的运作过程和传导效果,分析在不同的汇率管理机制下,中国的货币政策有效性是否得到了提高以及如何提高。不仅从汇率传导的角度得出整体判断,而且对完善我国货币政策有效性提出相应的政策建议,期望进一步推进人民币汇率制度改革,扩大汇率弹性,完善汇率形成的市场机制,要稳健的开放资本账户,提高货币政策的独立性,调高对外汇市场风险的预防能力,同时需将汇率制度与其他政策制度配合使用等,这对于完善我国的金融市场和经济体制建设,具有重要的理论意义和长远的现实意义。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy affects the entire macro economy from the perspective of real exchange rate fluctuations. It is called the exchange rate channel of monetary policy. The implementation of a country's monetary policy and the exchange rate system jointly affect the overall operation of a country's macro economy. On July 21st 2005, the people's Bank of China issued the news. Announcing that the exchange rate management mechanism should be reformed and adjusted on the basis of market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies, There is a managed floating exchange rate system [1]. The main contents of this exchange rate reform are as follows: first, the exchange rate will float according to the supply and demand situation of the foreign exchange market, which can reflect the price signal function of the exchange rate; Second, the exchange rate can adjust the range of exchange rate fluctuations according to the balance of foreign trade, making the exchange rate mechanism more flexible; third, the exchange rate will refer to a basket of currencies, including the United States dollar, the euro, the yen, and so on. The RMB is no longer one-sided pegged to a single dollar. The current exchange rate regime reform can maintain the basic stability of the renminbi's currency value and make the exchange rate gradually market-oriented. It also indicates that China's exchange rate management mechanism has moved towards a flexible exchange rate system. Since 2005, China has implemented the exchange rate regime reform, and under the new floating exchange rate management mechanism, The RMB exchange rate can fluctuate according to the supply and demand of the market. Our country has less and less control over capital, and gradually changes to a free flow of capital and a managed floating exchange rate system. This paper expounds the theoretical process of managing the influence of floating exchange rate on the independence of monetary policy, and finds that compared with the fixed exchange rate system, floating exchange rate can effectively mitigate external shocks. Then strengthen the independence of monetary policy; However, excessive exchange rate fluctuations will affect macroeconomic by current account and balance sheet channels, thus weakening the independence of monetary policy. Using the econometrics research method of contemporary mainstream, through the economic monthly data from January 1994 to December 2014, carry on the stage empirical research and contrast analysis, use the statistical method, test the relation between the related variables. To understand the operational process and transmission effect of the exchange rate transmission channel of China's monetary policy, and to analyze the different exchange rate management mechanisms, Whether and how to improve the effectiveness of China's monetary policy. Not only from the point of view of exchange rate transmission, but also from the perspective of the overall judgment, and to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in China put forward corresponding policy recommendations. Looking forward to further promoting the reform of the RMB exchange rate system, expanding exchange rate flexibility, perfecting the market mechanism formed by the exchange rate, steadily opening the capital account, enhancing the independence of monetary policy, and increasing the ability to prevent foreign exchange market risks. At the same time, the exchange rate system and other policy systems should be used together, which has important theoretical and long-term practical significance for the improvement of our financial market and economic system construction.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0

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