影子银行体系对我国货币政策有效性的影响分析

发布时间：2018-03-20 03:27

本文选题：影子银行　切入点：货币政策　出处：《深圳大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2007年,以美国为首的欧美发达国家爆发了一场次贷金融危机,这次金融海啸影响迅速波及全球,是20世纪30年代以来最为严重的一次经济衰退。究其原因,影子银行的产生与发展成为这次金融海啸的导火索,虽然我国还不具有真正意义上的影子银行概念,但是我国大量外贸企业受到不同程度的冲击,同时,也出现大量的外资撤离现象。因此,我国学者和政府官员都对这次次贷金融危机所带来的影响高度重视。货币政策是中央银行制定和实施金融措施的一个必要的调控工具。货币政策是否具有有效性主要取决于货币政策工具、操作目标、传导机制、中介目标和最终目标运行效果。货币政策效果实施的好与坏直接关系着中央银行干预和调节宏观经济的效果,也关系着操作目标运行的效果,也关系着传导机制运行的效果,同时也关系着中介目标与最终目标的实现状况。因此,中央银行只有制定和实施有效的货币政策才能实现国民经济平稳健康有序运行。但是影子银行的产生与发展使我国货币政策实施效果受到一定程度的影响,同时使中介目标之一货币供应量出现统计失灵,这将会影响着传导机制健康有序运行,也将会使国内物价水平和经济增长出现波动起伏的状况,从而会影响到货币政策有效性。因此,本文选择影子银行体系对我国货币政策有效性的影响分析来作为切题点,这将对我国中央银行制定和实施有效的货币政策是一场具有重要意义的尝试性创新探索,对研究国民经济和金融体系稳定具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文内容主要分为以下三个方面来阐述,首先,对本文选题背景与研究意义进行论述与概括,根据国内外学者大量的研究成果来进行分类并进行文献综述,并对本文研究方法、创新点与不足之处展开分析,同时,对我国影子银行进行概述,具体包括其概念界定、构成与成因;其次,对本文主题内容分别进行相应的理论分析与实证分析,理论分析从五个视角来阐述本文主题内容,实证分析运用VAR模型来进行一系列实证检验,因为中央银行通过调控货币政策三大金融工具来实现货币政策最终目标(经济增长和物价稳定),但是中央银行无法直接实现最终目标,对其实现程度主要通过货币供应量这个中介指标来完成,因此,本文选取影子银行体系规模这个变量分别对货币供应量、经济增长和物价水平三个指标变量的影响,以此来检验影子银行体系对我国货币政策有效性的影响,得出结论:随着影子银行的产生与发展,我国货币供应量和通货膨胀都呈现出很大的波动性,从而加大中央银行调控的难度;同时,影子银行体系可能会把筹集到的大量货币资金投放到收益较高和风险较高的虚拟经济或者是房地产行业,然而我国制造业等实体经济的发展受到较少的关注,这样很容易引发市场经济出现泡沫破裂,进而可能诱发经济危机的风险;最后,本文提出政策建议,先提出完善货币政策的相关建议,然后提出影子银行是一个中性概念,中央银行要努力尝试在金融制度创新、金融有效监管和金融稳定发展三者之间寻找一个最佳平衡点,以此来保证其相辅相成、彼此制约和规范发展。
[Abstract]:In 2007, the outbreak of the subprime crisis in the United States led by the developed countries, the financial impact of the tsunami quickly spread to the world, is the most since 1930s a severe economic downturn. The reason of the emergence and development of the shadow banking has become the financial tsunami triggered, although China still does not have a real sense of the shadow banking concept, but a large number of China's foreign trade enterprises are subject to different degrees of impact, at the same time, but also the emergence of a large number of foreign capital withdrawal phenomenon. Therefore, the impact of China's scholars and government officials of the subprime financial crisis brought about by the attention. Monetary policy is a necessary tool for the regulation of the central bank to formulate and implement financial measures whether the monetary policy is mainly determined. On the effectiveness of monetary policy tools, operation target, transmission mechanism, intermediate target and the ultimate goal of monetary policy operation effect. The effect of the implementation of the good and bad are directly related to the central bank intervention and regulation of macro economy effect, but also the relationship between the operation target of operation effect, but also the relationship between the conduction mechanism of effect, but also the relationship between the intermediate target and the ultimate goal. Therefore, the central bank only to formulate and implement effective monetary policy to to achieve a stable and healthy and orderly operation of national economy. But the emergence and development of the shadow banking to China's monetary policy implementation effect affected to a certain extent, while the intermediary target of the money supply statistics of failure, it will affect the transmission mechanism of a healthy and orderly operation, will make the domestic price level and economic growth fluctuation situation, which will affect the effectiveness of monetary policy. Therefore, this paper analysis the effect of shadow banking system on the effectiveness of China's monetary policy to As the starting point, the Central Bank of China to formulate and implement effective monetary policy is an attempt of innovation is of great significance in the exploration, it has important theoretical and practical significance to the study of the national economy and the stability of the financial system. This paper is mainly divided into the following three aspects, firstly, discussed and summarized the research background and significance of this article, according to the domestic and foreign scholars research results to classify and review literature, and the research methods, innovations and deficiencies are analyzed, at the same time, an overview of China's shadow banking, including its definition, structure and origin; secondly, the theme of contents of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, theoretical analysis to this article topic from five perspectives, empirical analysis using VAR model to conduct a series of empirical tests, because of The central bank monetary policy through the regulation of the three financial instruments to achieve the ultimate goal of monetary policy (economic growth and price stability), but the central bank can not directly achieve the ultimate goal of its realization is mainly through the money supply the intermediate target to complete, therefore, this paper selects the size of the shadow banking system this variable respectively on money supply effect of economic growth and the price level of three variables, in order to influence, the shadow banking system to test the effectiveness of China's monetary policy concluded: with the emergence and development of the shadow banking, China's money supply and inflation are showing great volatility, thereby increasing the difficulty of the central bank regulation; at the same time the shadow banking system, may put a lot of money to raise funds to put into the virtual economy of higher income and higher risk or the real estate industry, however The development of China's manufacturing industry and the real economy gets less attention, this can easily lead to market economy bubble burst, which may risk induced by the economic crisis; finally, this paper presents policy recommendations, first put forward relevant suggestions to improve the monetary policy, then the shadow banking is a neutral concept, the central bank should try in the financial system innovation, to find an optimal balance between financial supervision and financial stability development of the three, in order to ensure its complement each other, to restrict and regulate the development of each other.

【学位授予单位】：深圳大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.3

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