基于物元模型的网级高速公路沥青路面养护决策研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 15:09

  本文选题：沥青路面　切入点：网级　出处：《东南大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着高速公路网的不断完善,高速公路的里程不断增加,各高速公路路面都存在着不同程度的损坏,但每年的养护预算是有限的,难以满足所有高速公路的养护需求。因此如何把给定的道路养护预算分配到路网中最需要处治的路段上,是高速公路管理部门急需解决的难题。本文以江苏省高速公路为依托,基于项目级路面养护管理决策支持系统的研究成果,对高速公路沥青路面网级决策问题进行系统研究。网级路面养护决策是一个多因素、多属性的决策问题。根据路网的具体特点,采用工程经验结合专家调查法,对影响路面养护决策的因素,包括路面性能和结构强度、路面结构材料、交通轴载、路龄和道路的地位等进行深入研究,提取其中的主要影响指标作为网级养护决策的特征指标。运用主客观联系和概率统计方法,研究各因素对路面养护决策的影响,采用曲线拟合的方法,对各影响指标进行规范化评价,将评价指标的特征值变换到[0,100]区间上。对路面结构材料、交通轴载和路龄的的决策影响参数,根据拟合精度,选取幂函数、对数函数和立方函数进行拟合。采用层次分析法计算得到各影响因素的权重。网级决策各影响因素包括路面性能,路面结构强度,路面结构材料,交通轴载,路龄和道路等级对应的权重向量为WP=[0.5176,0.1840,0.1271,0.1020,0.0405,0.0287]T。进行历史养护费用和路面残余寿命对网级决策各影响因素的敏感性分析,分析结果与层次分析法得到的权重分析结果基本吻合。运用物元分析理论,采用各决策影响指标的规范化分值和权重,对物元模型建立过程中的各影响评价指标与养护路段的关联度进行分析确定,从而对各高速公路路段的养护紧迫性程度进行综合排序。通过对路面性能直接检测指标主要包括车辙深度和平整度的比较,选取车辙深度RD作为路面养护效益分析的路面性能指标。对于路面使用性能综合评价指标,主要采用路面破损状况指数PDCI计算路面养护的效益。从回归模型精度以及回归模型的显著性上来比较,选取立方模型进行回归分析建立路面车辙深度RD和破损状况指数PDCI的发展曲线。通过对工程经济分析方法的比较,选用年度等额费用法和效益费用比法对江苏省常见的预防性养护措施的费用-效益分析比较,在轻、中交通条件下,选择预防性养护措施时需要优先考虑微表处和薄层罩面;在重、特重交通条件下,则应主要选择普通罩面和就地热再生。通过对主要的几种确定型预测模型的分析比较,选取灰色预测模型对路面车辙深度的发展进行预测。根据路面性能预测,采用决策树进行项目级决策,确定需要养护的路段,并为每个路段选择适宜的路面养护措施,制定未来几年的路面养护需求计划。对高速公路网级路面养护决策优化问题提出了基于动态规划思想的决策规划模型,并采用整数规划的算法进行求解,以多年内总的效益费用比最大为目标。基于物元模型得到各需要养护路段的综合排序,把排序结果应用到路网的养护计划的优化分析过程,能够大大减少计算量。把动态规划法用于网级系统决策优化,得到未来3年系统内江苏省14条高速公路的路面养护资金分配计划,显示模型的的合理性和实用性。本文的研究成果可用于建立合理的网级高速公路路面养护管理系统,为我国今后的高速公路路面养护管理提供技术支持,对我国高速公路沥青路面的养护与管理具有非常重要的意义。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of the highway network, highway mileage increasing, the highway pavement there are different degrees of damage, but the annual maintenance budget is limited, it is difficult to meet the needs of all maintenance of expressway. So how to road maintenance budget allocated to a given network most in need of treatment on the road, is a difficult problem in highway management departments urgently need to solve. This paper takes Jiangsu province expressway project pavement maintenance management decision support system research based on systematic research on Asphalt Pavement of expressway network level decision problem. Network level pavement maintenance decision is a multi factor, multiple attribute decision making problem. According to the specific characteristics of the network, using the engineering experience according to the expert investigation method, the influence factors of pavement maintenance decision, including pavement performance and structural strength, pavement materials, transportation The axle load, the age of the road and road as well as the status of in-depth study, the main effect of the extraction of the index as the characteristic index of network level maintenance decision. The use of subjective and objective relation and probability statistics method, study the effects of various factors on the pavement maintenance decision, adopts the method of curve fitting, standardized evaluation of each index, characteristics the index value is transformed into interval [0100]. The pavement structure material, traffic load and road axis decision influence age parameters according to the fitting accuracy, selection of power function, logarithmic function and cubic function fitting. Using AHP to calculate the weight of each factor. The influence factors including network level decision the performance of the pavement, pavement strength, pavement materials, traffic load, the weight vector corresponding to the level of the age of the road and road maintenance fees for the WP=[0.5176,0.1840,0.1271,0.1020,0.0405,0.0287]T. history With the sensitivity analysis of the residual life and road network level decision factors, analysis results are basically consistent with the AHP weight analysis results. Using the matter element analysis theory, using a standardized index score and weight of each decision, the matter-element model established the influence in the process of evaluation and maintenance association the road is analyzed so as to determine the highway road maintenance urgency degree ranking. Based on the direct detection of pavement performance indicators include comparison of rutting depth and flatness of the pavement performance index, selection of rutting depth RD as pavement maintenance benefit analysis. For comprehensive pavement performance evaluation, mainly by road damage condition index PDCI calculation of pavement maintenance efficiency. From the accuracy of regression model and regression model is significant to compare selected cubic model Regression analysis for curve established pavement rutting depth RD and damage index PDCI. Through comparative analysis method of engineering economy, the annual benefit equal cost method and the benefit cost ratio method of Jiangsu province common preventive maintenance measures of cost analysis and comparison, in the light of the traffic conditions, selection of preventive maintenance measures should give priority to the micro surfacing and overlay; in heavy, heavy traffic conditions, it should be the main choice of common covering and HIR. Based on several main analysis confirmed the prediction model, grey prediction model of selected pavement rutting depth was predicted according to the prediction of pavement performance. Project level, decision by decision tree, determine the need for maintenance sections, and choose the suitable pavement maintenance measures for each section, make the pavement maintenance plan for the next few years the demand of highway. Network level pavement maintenance decision optimization problems in decision planning model based on dynamic programming, and solved using integer programming algorithm, in order to benefit the total cost of years than the largest target. The matter-element model of comprehensive ranking each need maintenance sections based on the ranking results applied to process analysis and optimization of network maintenance plan, can greatly reduce the amount of calculation. The dynamic programming method for decision optimization of network level system, obtain the pavement maintenance fund allocation plan for the next 3 years in Jiangsu Province 14 highway, shows the model is reasonable and practical. The research results of this paper can be used to build the road network level of Expressway Maintenance Management system to provide reasonable. Technical support for the future of China's highway pavement maintenance management, has very important significance in the maintenance and management of highway asphalt pavement in our country.

【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U418.6
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本文编号：1639619