河北省农业碳排放预测与减排路径设计

发布时间：2018-03-26 02:25

本文选题：碳排放　切入点：农业　出处：《河北地质大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：河北省是华北地区重要农业生产基地,也是我国粮食大省之一。近年来由于全球气候变暖与环境污染问题越来越严重,碳排放问题成为各国的关注点。农业与工业相比在降低碳排放上有更多的正外部性,降低农业碳排放有利于减少农田污染,保持土壤肥力,保障食品安全等。近年来河北省农产品产量持续增长,农业碳排放也随之逐年增长,但是耕地面积多年来保持稳定,因此农产品产量的增长是建立在农药、化肥等物质的过量使用基础上的,农业污染问题导致土壤肥力下降,这种农业发展模式不具有可持续性。因此从低碳经济角度上计算河北省农业碳排放量并分析影响农业碳排放的影响因素和未来碳排放趋势,根据分析结果有针对性地制定提高农业生产效率且降低农业碳排放的措施,对转变河北省农业目前高投入高排放模式,提高农民收入和实现农业可持续发展具有现实意义。本文的具体研究内容如下:首先采用2005-2013年河北省农业相关统计数据,基于IPCC温室气体清单法构建农业碳排放核算框架,对河北省农业历年碳排放状况进行计算;其次构造农业碳排放恒等式,应用LMDI因素分解法对河北省农业碳排放的驱动因素进行分解,找出河北省农业主要碳排放驱动因素;再次应用灰色系统模型对河北省农业未来碳排放进行估计,为河北省农业减排政策提供借鉴;最后结合河北省农业碳排放特征与问题提出适合降低河北省农业碳排放的措施。通过研究本文主要形成了以下结论:(1)河北省农业碳排放强度(不计稻田碳排放)在国内处于较高水平,碳足迹逐年降低;(2)河北省农业碳排放的主要碳源为农用机械与化肥,影响农业碳排放变化的主要碳源为农用机械;(3)影响河北省农业碳排放的主要驱动因素为经济发展水平(正效应)与能源强度(负效应),正效应的整体影响略大于负效应;降低化肥使用频率与化肥使用强度是降低农业碳排放效应的主要途径;(4)发展精准农业能有效降低碳排放水平。
[Abstract]:Hebei Province is an important agricultural production base in North China and one of the largest grain provinces in China. In recent years, the global warming and environmental pollution problems have become more and more serious. The issue of carbon emissions has become a national concern. Agriculture has more positive externalities in reducing carbon emissions than industry, and reducing agricultural carbon emissions can help reduce farm pollution and maintain soil fertility. In recent years, the output of agricultural products in Hebei Province has continued to increase, and agricultural carbon emissions have also increased year by year, but the area of cultivated land has remained stable for many years, so the increase in agricultural production is based on pesticides. Based on the excessive use of fertilizers and other substances, the problem of agricultural pollution leads to a decline in soil fertility. This agricultural development model is not sustainable. Therefore, from the perspective of low-carbon economy, we calculate the agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province and analyze the factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions and the future carbon emission trends. According to the results of the analysis, the measures to improve the efficiency of agricultural production and reduce agricultural carbon emissions have been formulated, which will change the current pattern of high investment and high emission in agriculture in Hebei Province. It is of practical significance to increase farmers' income and realize the sustainable development of agriculture. The specific research contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, based on the IPCC greenhouse gas inventory method, the agricultural carbon emission accounting framework is constructed by using the agricultural statistics data from 2005 to 2013 in Hebei Province. The carbon emission status of agriculture in Hebei Province was calculated. Secondly, the agricultural carbon emission identity was constructed, and the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei province were decomposed by LMDI factor decomposition method, and the main driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei province were found out. Thirdly, the grey system model is used to estimate the future carbon emission of agriculture in Hebei Province, which provides a reference for the agricultural emission reduction policy of Hebei Province. Finally, according to the characteristics and problems of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province, the paper puts forward some suitable measures for reducing agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province. Through the research, the following conclusions are formed: 1) the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province (excluding the carbon emissions from rice fields); At a relatively high level in the country, The main carbon sources of agricultural carbon emission in Hebei Province are agricultural machinery and chemical fertilizer. The main carbon source affecting the carbon emission of agriculture is agricultural machinery. The main driving factors influencing agricultural carbon emission in Hebei Province are the level of economic development (positive effect) and energy intensity (negative effect). The overall effect of positive effect is slightly greater than that of negative effect. Reducing the frequency and intensity of chemical fertilizer use is the main way to reduce the carbon emission effect in agriculture. (4) the development of precision agriculture can effectively reduce the level of carbon emissions.
【学位授予单位】：河北地质大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F327

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