海洋油气集输容器失效事故树分析与可靠性评价模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 15:33

本文选题：海洋油气集输容器　切入点：事故树　出处：《兰州理工大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：海洋油气集输压力容器是将海上油田采出的产物进行收集和处理,并将其输送上岸的全过程,是海洋油气开采系统的重要部分。由于海洋油气集输压力容器在长期服役过程中,会受材料、设计、制作、安装、管理、腐蚀、和施工等原因影响而发生失效。轻者会造成经济损失和停产整顿,重者会导致泄漏、火灾、爆炸等重大事故,造成巨大经济损失、人员伤亡和环境污染等严重后果。对海洋油气集输压力容器进行失效形式的事故树评价分析,发现影响海洋油气集输压力容器失效的主要风险因素,明确油气集输系统薄弱环节,进而针对性地提出及时有效的防护措施有重大意义。本文通过海洋油气集输压力容器失效事故统计,对失效因素进行初步分析和分类;对海洋油气集输压力容器系统进行深入分析,建立失效形式的事故树模型,更深层次的分析研究导致海洋油气集输压力容器失效的主要风险因素;定性定量分析评价失效因素的风险等级和重要度大小;运用道化学评价法进一步分析比较评价结果;根据安全评价结果和实际系统运行环境,针对性地提出有效预防和防护措施;建立系统可靠性评价模型,为系统可靠性评价分析建立有效的分析方法。本文主要对以下内容进行了研究:首先,收集海洋油气集输压力容器相关数据,对比国内外海洋油气集输压力容器失效事故统计数据,分析影响海洋油气集输压力容器失效风险因素,其主要因素有:容器设计施工质量,运行环境,腐蚀,第三方破坏,管理不善等。其次,建立海洋油气集输压力容器失效形式的事故树模型,运用事故树评价法定性地评价海洋油气集输压力容器系统失效因素,确定风险因素的重要度。再次,结合事故树分析软件、统计数据、模糊数学和专家打分法对基本事件概率进行运算,得出定量分析结果,确定主要风险因素。进而,运用道化学评价法对海洋油气集输压力容器系统进行分析,对比事故树评价结果。针对两次评价分析的结果,识别海洋油气集输压力容器系统的主要风险因素和运行过程的薄弱环节,结合评价指标体系和实际系统运行环境,针对性地提出有效管理办法和预防防护措施,为海洋平台管理和安全生产提供理论支持,确保海洋平台的安全生产。最后,为了更好的对系统进行分析研究,对系统可靠性进行分析评价研究,建立系统可靠性评价模型。对系统进行三方面的可靠性评价分析:安全可靠性评价分析、环境可靠性评价分析和经济可靠性评价分析。
[Abstract]:The offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessel is the whole process of collecting, processing and transporting offshore oil and gas production products, and it is an important part of the offshore oil and gas production system. Because the offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessel is in service for a long time, the offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessel is an important part of the offshore oil and gas production system. Failure will occur due to material, design, manufacture, installation, management, corrosion, and construction. The lighter will cause economic losses and shut down for rectification, while the heavy will cause major accidents such as leakage, fire, explosion, and cause huge economic losses. Serious consequences such as casualties and environmental pollution. The failure forms of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessels are evaluated and analyzed by accident tree, and the main risk factors affecting the failure of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessels are found. It is of great significance to identify the weak links of oil and gas gathering and transportation system and then put forward timely and effective protection measures. This paper makes a preliminary analysis and classification of failure factors through statistics of failure accidents of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessels. This paper deeply analyzes the pressure vessel system of offshore oil and gas gathering and transportation, establishes the failure form of accident tree model, and studies the main risk factors that lead to the failure of offshore oil and gas gathering and transportation pressure vessel. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the risk level and importance of failure factors; further analysis and comparison of evaluation results by using channel chemistry evaluation method; according to the safety evaluation results and the actual operating environment of the system, The effective preventive and protective measures are put forward, the system reliability evaluation model is established, and the effective analysis method for the system reliability evaluation is established. The main contents of this paper are as follows: first, Collecting relevant data of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessels, comparing the statistical data of failure accidents of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessels at home and abroad, and analyzing the factors affecting the failure risk of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessels. The main factors are as follows: vessel design and construction quality, operation environment, corrosion, third party damage, mismanagement, etc. Secondly, an accident tree model of the failure form of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessel is established. The failure factors of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessel system are evaluated qualitatively by the method of accident tree evaluation, and the importance of risk factors is determined. Thirdly, combined with the accident tree analysis software, the statistical data are obtained. Fuzzy mathematics and expert scoring method are used to calculate the probability of basic events, the quantitative analysis results are obtained, and the main risk factors are determined. According to the results of the two evaluation and analysis, the main risk factors and weak links in the operation process of the marine oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessel system are identified, combined with the evaluation index system and the actual system operating environment. In order to provide theoretical support for offshore platform management and safety production, and ensure the safety of offshore platform production. Finally, in order to better analyze and study the system, The system reliability is analyzed and evaluated, and the system reliability evaluation model is established. The system is evaluated and analyzed in three aspects: safety reliability evaluation, environmental reliability evaluation and economic reliability evaluation.
【学位授予单位】：兰州理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TH49

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