基于Logistic模型的呼和浩特市农户信用影响因素实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 10:37

  本文选题：农户　切入点：信用风险　出处：《内蒙古农业大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：农村金融是我国金融体系的重要组成部分。2015年,中央一号文件明确指出,我国经济发展进入新常态,如何在经济增速放缓的新背景下继续加强农业基础地位,促进农民持续增收,是必须破解的一个重大课题。其中,解决农户贷款难问题是“三农”建设的关键环节。我国农村小额信贷的供给呈逐年减少的趋势。这是由农户贷款金额少、操作成本高、预期收益低、信用风险不确定等特点决定的。问题的源头在于涉农金融机构对农户的信用难以进行科学的判断,也就难以控制农户的贷款风险。目前,各涉农金融机构对影响农户信用的因素认识不统一,评判标准缺乏科学性和完整性。因此,如何运用现有的农户已到期贷款相关资料,对可能影响农户信用的因素进行科学合理的分析,是一个有现实意义和经济意义的课题。本研究基于农户家庭特征、偿债能力、经营情况、贷款情况、信誉情况六个方面,对影响呼和浩特市农户信用的因素进行统计性描述分析,并根据收集的数据,使用Logistic回归模型分析影响呼和浩特市农户信用的显著性因素。根据分析结果,得出农户信用水平不佳的原因主要有农村医疗保障制度不健全、农耕生产风险较大、农户增收渠道不畅、农户社会资本情况不佳和农户缺乏有效地抵押和担保。根据以上原因提出了健全农村医疗保障制度、推广农业保险、拓宽农户增收渠道、创新农业信贷产品和优化农村“信用”环境等提高农户信用的措施。
[Abstract]:Rural finance is an important part of China's financial system. In 2015, the No. 1 document of the Central Committee clearly pointed out that China's economic development has entered a new normal, and how to continue to strengthen the basic position of agriculture under the new background of slowing economic growth.Promote farmer to increase income continuously, it is an important subject that must crack.Among them, solve farmer loan difficult problem is the key link of construction of "agriculture, countryside and farmers".The supply of rural microfinance in China is decreasing year by year.This is determined by the characteristics of small loan amount, high operating cost, low expected income and uncertain credit risk.The source of the problem lies in the difficulty for agricultural financial institutions to make scientific judgment on the credit of farmers, so it is difficult to control the loan risk of farmers.At present, the agricultural financial institutions do not have a unified understanding of the factors affecting farmers' credit, and the evaluation criteria are lacking in scientific and integrity.Therefore, how to make scientific and reasonable analysis of the factors that may affect the farmers' credit by using the existing relevant data of farmers' loans due is a topic of practical and economic significance.Based on household characteristics, solvency, management, loan situation and credit standing, this study makes a statistical description and analysis of the factors affecting the credit of farmers in Hohhot, and according to the collected data,Logistic regression model was used to analyze the significant factors affecting the credit of farmers in Hohhot.According to the results of the analysis, the main reasons for the poor credit level of farmers are the unsound medical security system in rural areas, the greater risks in agricultural production, the poor channels for farmers to increase their income, the poor social capital situation of farmers and the lack of effective mortgage and guarantee for farmers.Based on the above reasons, the paper puts forward some measures to improve farmers' credit, such as perfecting rural medical security system, popularizing agricultural insurance, widening farmers' income channels, innovating agricultural credit products and optimizing rural "credit" environment.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.43
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本文编号：1726083