中国进口反倾销经济效应的研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 06:04

本文选题：进口反倾销 + 经济效应　；参考：《广西大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：进口反倾销是世界贸易组织所允许的贸易救济措施,作为世界贸易组织的成员国,在既定的国际经济政治格局下使用现有规则有效的使用进口反倾销措施不仅能够保护国内的相关产业,还能够避免贸易摩擦的升级,触发全球范围内的贸易战争,让本就停滞不前的世界经济雪上加霜。在此背景下,本文以幼稚产业保护和战略性贸易理论为根基,从引致外商直接投资、贸易限制、贸易转移和国家报复效应四个角度,以中国二十年间的进口反倾销案例为载体,分析中国进口反倾销的经济效应。在对进口反倾销现状的分析中,发现中国进口反倾销具有相关法律制度不完善,立案调查发起数量阶段性明显,涉案国多为发达国家(地区),主要集中于化工行业,案件审理时间过长,肯定性终裁多且反倾销税率低的特征,认为其具有国内相关产业的保护力度不够,行业协会未充分发挥其在进口反倾销领域作用的问题。本文采用2004-2014年十一个行业的面板数据,以工业企业成本费用利润率和进口反倾销调查次数为自变量,构建进口反倾销引致外商直接投资的个体时间双向固定效应模型,实证结果表明,前年的进口反倾销调查每增加一次,今年的外商直接投资额将会增加2.47265亿元,所以在制定经济战略时,应该综合考虑进口反倾销措施和外资政策。在研究进口反倾销其他经济效应时,发现在涉案数量最多的几类产品中,中国进口反倾销措施可以显著降低涉案产品的进口量,存在一定的贸易限制效应,因此企业和行业协会要提高利用进口反倾销措施保护自身合法权益的意识。对二十年间对来自不同国家或地区同种产品的二次反倾销调查的统计表明,贸易转移效应明显,所以中国应该建立完善的产业损害预警机制和原产地规则,遏制贸易转移效应。中国进口反倾销涉案国与主要对华反倾销国家的排名对比表明,中国并不存在明显的贸易报复效应,但在对中美个案的研究中发现,每当美国的涉华反倾销案件增加一个,中国对美国发起的进口反倾销案件就增加0.33个,说明两者存在一定的关系,因此中国应该有针对性的选择报复性产品,提高进口反倾销的频繁程度,充分利用报复性反倾销调查的威慑作用。
[Abstract]:As a member of the World Trade Organization, import anti-dumping is a trade relief measure permitted by the World Trade Organization.Under the established international economic and political situation, the effective use of import anti-dumping measures under the established international economic and political situation can not only protect domestic related industries, but also avoid the escalation of trade frictions and trigger a global trade war.Add to the woes of the already stagnant world economy.In this context, based on the infant industry protection and strategic trade theory, this paper takes China's import anti-dumping cases as the carrier from the four angles of leading to foreign direct investment, trade restriction, trade transfer and national retaliation effect.This paper analyzes the economic effect of China's import anti-dumping.In the analysis of the current situation of import anti-dumping, it is found that China's import anti-dumping has imperfect relevant legal system, that the number of cases initiated is obvious, and that most of the countries involved are developed countries (regions, mainly concentrated in the chemical industry).Due to the fact that the trial time is too long, the final adjudication is more positive and the anti-dumping tax rate is low, it is considered that the protection of domestic related industries is not enough, and the trade association has not given full play to its role in the field of import anti-dumping.Based on the panel data of 11 industries from 2004 to 2014 and taking the cost-cost profit margin of industrial enterprises and the number of anti-dumping investigations as independent variables, this paper constructs a bidirectional fixed effect model of foreign direct investment (FDI) caused by import anti-dumping.The empirical results show that each increase of import anti-dumping investigation in the previous year will increase FDI by 247.265 million yuan this year. Therefore, when formulating economic strategy, import anti-dumping measures and foreign investment policies should be considered comprehensively.When studying other economic effects of import anti-dumping, it is found that among the several categories of products involved in the largest number of products involved, China's import anti-dumping measures can significantly reduce the import volume of the products involved, and there is a certain trade restriction effect.Therefore, enterprises and trade associations should raise awareness of using anti-dumping measures to protect their legitimate rights and interests.The statistics of the second anti-dumping investigation on the same products from different countries or regions in the past 20 years show that the effect of trade transfer is obvious, so China should establish a perfect industrial damage warning mechanism and rules of origin to curb the effect of trade transfer.The comparison of China's ranking of countries involved in anti-dumping cases with that of major anti-dumping countries against China shows that China does not have a significant trade retaliation effect. However, in the case study of China and the United States, it is found that whenever the United States adds an additional anti-dumping case involving China,The number of import anti-dumping cases initiated by China against the United States has increased by 0.33, indicating that there is a certain relationship between the two. Therefore, China should select retaliatory products in order to increase the frequency of import anti-dumping.Take full advantage of the deterrent effect of retaliatory anti-dumping investigations.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.02

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