基于计量模型的中国城市职能演化研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 19:17

本文选题：周-布方法 + SOFM网络方法　；参考：《宁波大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文选择1990年、2000年、2010年三个年份的地级以上城市为研究对象；确定工业、建筑业等9个行业指标和“市辖区年末总人口”1个规模指标；研究中国20多年来的城市职能演化。研究内容主要分为以下三部分：一、最具影响力的周-布方法与SOFM网络方法比较研究，发现①周-布方法计算速率快，分类结果稳定，分类类别数较易确定，但是较主观，权重设置对分类结果产生了很大影响；②SOFM网络方法较客观，分类结果更为合理，城市职能类型较明显，但是分类类别数无法确定，分类结果的稳定性较差。本文从客观和分类效果好的角度出发，选择SOFM网络方法为分类方法，并通过多次分类，改进SOFM网络方法的不足。二、中国城市职能结构演化研究：研究全国、不同城市规模、东中西部、三大城市群（京津冀、长三角、珠三角）的职能结构演化趋势；研究各行业部门在各层次间的演化趋势。可知，①三大城市群间职能结构变动差异较大，京津冀最大，长三角最小。②金融保险业发展速度最快，就业比重增长率最大；工业、商业（除珠三角地区外）的就业比重均下降，但工业的就业比重仍最大；教文卫体和社会福利业、房地产和社会服务业发展较迅速，就业比重为第二或第三；建筑业就业比重增减变化较活跃，在特大城市、大城市，中西部地区，长三角地区占重要地位，就业比重占第三；公共管理业等在中、小城市中发展最快，就业比重占第三。三、中国城市职能类型演化研究。中国城市职能分成3大类，9亚类，其中1990年、2000年、2010年依次分为14、14、12个职能组。借助纳尔逊指数，首先从职能规模和职能强度，分析三大类城市的演化特征；其次对各职能组进行命名，分析城市职能类型的演化特征和规律。可知，①中国的城市规模增加，职能强度增强，城市的综合性增强；②全国或大区级的综合性城市职能多样性增强。③石家庄、杭州等城市由第二产业向第三产业主导职能发展。④以工业为主的大型综合性城市和中等工业城市向综合性城市发展。总之，中国城市职能结构更加优化，城市经济发展有了质的飞跃。
[Abstract]:This paper chooses the cities above the prefectural level in the years of 1990, 2000 and 2010 as the research objects, determines nine industry indexes, such as industry and construction industry, and "the total population at the end of the year", and studies the evolution of urban functions in China over the past 20 years.The research content is divided into the following three parts:The main results are as follows: 1. The most influential method is compared with the SOFM network method. It is found that the calculation rate of the one-cycle distribution method is fast, the classification results are stable, the number of classification categories is easy to determine, but the number of classification categories is more subjective.The weight setting has a great influence on the classification result, the classification result is more reasonable, the function type of city is obvious, but the number of classification categories can not be determined, and the stability of classification result is poor.From the point of view of objectivity and good classification effect, this paper selects the SOFM network method as the classification method, and improves the deficiency of the SOFM network method by several classification methods.Second, the study on the evolution of urban functional structure in China: to study the evolution trend of functional structure of three urban agglomerations (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta) in the whole country, different urban scale, east, west and west;To study the evolution trend of various sectors at different levels.It can be seen that the functional structure of the three urban agglomerations varies greatly, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is the largest, the Yangtze River Delta smallest .2 the fastest development rate of the financial and insurance industry, the largest growth rate of employment; industry,The proportion of employment in commerce (except Pearl River Delta) is decreasing, but the proportion of industry is still the largest, the education, culture and social welfare industry, real estate and social service industry are developing rapidly, the proportion of employment is the second or third.The increase and decrease of the proportion of employment in the construction industry is more active, in the megacities, big cities, central and western regions, the Yangtze River Delta region occupies an important position, the proportion of employment occupies the third place; the public administration industry in the middle, small cities, the proportion of employment occupies the third place.Third, the evolution of urban function types in China.Urban functions in China are divided into 3 groups and 9 subgroups, among which, in 1990, 2000 and 2010, they are divided into 14 groups and 12 functional groups respectively.With the help of Nelson index, the evolution characteristics of the three major cities are analyzed from the scale and intensity of functions, and the evolution characteristics and laws of urban function types are analyzed by naming each functional group.It can be seen that the scale of cities in China has increased, the intensity of their functions has been strengthened, and the comprehensive functions of cities in China have increased. 3. Shijiazhuang has increased the functional diversity of comprehensive cities at the national or regional level.Hangzhou and other cities develop from the secondary industry to the leading function of the tertiary industry.In short, China's urban function structure is more optimized, urban economic development has made a qualitative leap.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.2

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