印度尼西亚外商直接投资的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-19 12:00

  本文选题：印度尼西亚 + 外商直接投资　； 参考：《华中师范大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：本研究旨在调查和分析国内生产总值、基础设施、通货膨胀率、汇率及对外开放程度对印度尼西亚长期和短期外商直接投资的影响。本研通过研究1998年印度尼西亚金融危机前后部分宏观经济因素和基础设施条件对外国直接投资的影响。但是,这项研究并不把金融危机视为影响外商直接投资的因素之一,而是假设金融危机是国家经济发展中的偶发事情。本文的数据直接或间接来自于印度尼西亚银行网站及印度尼西亚金融统计报告。此外,本研究中还使用了世界银行和国际金融统计的数据。本研究的因变量是FDI,自变量由印度尼西亚国内生产总值、通货膨胀率、汇率和开放度组成。这项研究还将基础设施也作为印度尼西亚外商直接投资的影响因素。本研究使用的分析方法是误差修正模型。误差修正模型是由Engle和Granger共同开发的。它是一种协调经济变量的短期行为与长期行为的手段。著名的Grange表述定理表明,如果变量X与Y是协整的,则它们间的短期非均衡关系总能由一个误差修正模型表述。本研究的分析可以分为几个阶段,即:(1)单位根检验:分析所使用的数据是否包含根单位,以便确定数据是否平稳;(2)相关水平检验:确定变量经过多少次差分能够使得数据平稳(3)协整检验:确定所研究的变量是否具有长久的相互关系;(4)误差校正模型的分析:分析变量在短期内的影响;(5)白噪声测试:测试模型是否通过多重共线性、异方差、正态分布和自相关等经典假设检验。研究结果显示,国内生产总值、通货膨胀率和贸易开放度对印度尼西亚的短期和长期外商直接投资都有显着影响。研究还发现,从长期来看,基础设施会对外商直接投资产生显著的正面影响;而在短期内,基建对印度尼西亚的外商直接投资会产生积极影响,但影响并不显着。从长期和短期来看,汇率变动对印度尼西亚的外商直接投资都有显着的积极影响。具体来说,可以得出以下结论:(1)国内生产总值在一段时间内对印度尼西亚的长期和短期外商直接投资流入都有显着的积极影响。这证明随着印度尼西亚GDP水平的提高,印度尼西亚的外商直接投资流入量将会增加。国民收入的增加会带来社会收入的增长,而社会收入的增长又会带来货物和服务需求的增长。因此,GDP是外商直接投资的关键因素;(2)从长远来看,基建对1985-2015年印度尼西亚的外商直接投资流量产生了积极的影响。作为一种公共服务,基础设施可以降低经营成本,是吸引外国直接投资流入的重要因素;(3)通货膨胀对1985-2015年期间印度尼西亚的外商直接投资流入产生了重大的负面影响。研究结果表明,国内高通胀可能会降低外国在该国的投资水平。价格上涨将导致通货膨胀,为了提高产量,公司在保持收入固定的同时,应降低运营成本;(4)汇率对于印度尼西亚1985-2015年期间的外商直接投资流入具有显著的长期影响。由于汇率会在相对较短的时间内发生变化,所以投资者在短期内会考虑汇率变动对公司的盈利能力的影响。由于印度尼西亚等新兴市场的外国投资者对汇率进行了回应,因此,从短期来看,汇率对1985-2015年期间印度尼西亚的外商直接投资流入具有显着的积极影响;(5)贸易开放度对1985-2015年期间印度尼西亚长期和短期的外商直接投资产生了显著影响,这主要是由于外贸开放度导致了较高的出口水平,而出口水平又反映出全球对印度尼西亚国内商品和服务需求的增加。高额进口反映出外国投资者有兴趣在印度尼西亚投资。从外商直接投资对经济增长的积极和消极影响来看,我们可以得出结论,外商直接投资对经济增长的影响在国家之间有所不同。但是,研究中可以确定是,外商直接投资如何影响东盟的经济增长。这当然也取决于东盟国家的经济条件、技术和体制。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the effects of gross domestic product, infrastructure, inflation, exchange rate and openness on the long-term and short-term FDI in Indonesia. This research has studied the impact of some macroeconomic factors and infrastructure conditions on foreign direct investment before and after the 1998 Indonesia financial crisis. However, this study does not regard the financial crisis as one of the factors affecting foreign direct investment, but assumes that the financial crisis is an occasional event in the economic development of the country. This data is directly or indirectly derived from the Indonesia bank website and the Indonesia financial statistics. In addition, the world bank is also used in this study. The dependent variable of this study is FDI, the independent variable is composed of Indonesia gross domestic product, inflation rate, exchange rate and openness. This study also uses the infrastructure as a factor to influence foreign direct investment in Indonesia. The analysis method used in this study is error correction model. Error correction The model is developed jointly by Engle and Granger. It is a means to coordinate the short-term and long-term behavior of the economic variables. The famous Grange expression theorem shows that if the variable X and Y are cointegration, the short term non equilibrium relationship between them can always be described by an error correction model. (1) unit root test: whether the data used in the analysis contains the root unit to determine whether the data is stable or not; (2) the correlation level test: the determination of the number of differences can make the data smooth (3) cointegration test: determine whether the studied variable has long long relationship; (4) analysis of error correction model: analysis variable in short The effect of the period; (5) the white noise test: whether the test model passes through the classical hypothesis test, such as multiple collinearity, heteroscedasticity, normal distribution and autocorrelation. The results show that gross domestic product, inflation rate and trade openness have a significant impact on both short-term and long-term FDI in Indonesia. In the short term, infrastructure will have a positive impact on foreign direct investment in Indonesia, but the impact is not significant in the short term. In the long run and in the short term, exchange rate changes have a positive impact on foreign direct investment in Indonesia. To draw the following conclusions: (1) the gross domestic product (GDP) has a positive impact on both long-term and short-term FDI inflows in Indonesia for a period of time. This proves that with the increase of the level of the GDP in Indonesia, the inflow of foreign direct investment in Indonesia will increase. The increase of national income will bring social income. As a result, GDP is a key factor in foreign direct investment. (2) in the long run, infrastructure has a positive impact on the flow of foreign direct investment in Indonesia in the past 1985-2015 years. As a public service, infrastructure can reduce operating costs and be sucked. An important factor in the inflow of foreign direct investment; (3) inflation has a significant negative impact on the inflow of foreign direct investment in Indonesia during the 1985-2015 year period. The results show that high inflation in the country may reduce foreign investment levels in the country. While holding a fixed income, the operating cost should be reduced; (4) the exchange rate has a significant long-term impact on the inflow of foreign direct investment during the 1985-2015 year period in Indonesia. As the exchange rate will change in a relatively short period of time, the investors will consider the impact of the change of foreign exchange rate on the profitability of the company in the short term. Because of the effect of the exchange rate on the profitability of the company. Foreign investors in emerging markets and other emerging markets responded to the exchange rate, thus, in the short term, the exchange rate had a significant positive impact on the inflow of foreign direct investment in Indonesia during the 1985-2015 year period; (5) the openness of trade had a significant impact on the long-term and short-term FDI of Indonesia during the 1985-2015 year period, This is mainly due to the higher export level, which reflects the increase in the global demand for domestic goods and services in Indonesia. High imports reflect the interest of foreign investors in Indonesia. From the positive and negative effects of FDI on economic growth, we can see that To conclude, the influence of foreign direct investment on economic growth is different between countries. However, it can be determined in the study how FDI affects ASEAN's economic growth. This, of course, depends on the economic conditions, technology and system of the ASEAN countries.

【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F831.6
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本文编号：1773009