保险公司估值模型探讨

发布时间：2018-04-20 07:50

本文选题：内含价值 + 剩余收益　；参考：《上海国家会计学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来中国经济经历了快速增长,目前已发展成为全球第二大经济体,在全球经济中扮演着日趋重要的角色。随着我国经济持续快速增长,人们生活水平逐渐提高,人们对保险行业有了新的认识,对保险需求也飞速增长。“新国十条”、“偿二代”等政策也大大推动了保险行业的发展。据保监会统计,2012-2014年总保费复合年增长率为20%,2012-2014年新业务价值复合年增长率为12%,在竞争日益激烈的社会,保险行业越来越活跃,其投资价值评估也就愈加受到企业外部投资者和内部管理者的关注。因此,如何评估保险行业的价值也受到愈来愈多的关注。由于保险行业的特殊性,不同于一般的金融行业,其业务具有长期性,所以一般的估值模型并不适用。本文采用理论分析和案例研究相结合的方法,选定H保险公司作为研究案例,首先介绍论文的研究背景,研究意义,内含价值模型和奥尔森剩余收益模型的理论基础,再分别将两个估值模型应用于该公司的价值评估中,通过分析两种模型不同的适用条件,设定假设,以及具体应用时的优点和缺点,得出案例结论。接着,我们将奥尔森剩余收益模型分别应用于在A股已上市的四家保险公司,通过实际具体的股价反推剩余收益的增长率,并与历史的剩余收益增长率对比,发现是可以实现的。最后,根据论文研究的结果,得出结论,指出不足并提出建议。通过研究分析,我们可以得出奥尔森剩余模型应用广泛,尽管保险行业的自身具有特殊性,总体来说,该模型适用于评估保险公司的价值。相比而言,内含价值考虑了保险公司缴纳保费周期较长的特性,考虑了未来可获得的利润,适合用于评估保险公司的价值,但实际可操作性较差。最后,本文从如何选择适合保险公司估值模型,以及如何提高保险行业信息披露方面提出微薄的建议。
[Abstract]:China's economy, which has experienced rapid growth in recent years, has developed into the world's second-largest economy, playing an increasingly important role in the global economy. With the sustained and rapid growth of our economy, people's living standards have been gradually improved, people have a new understanding of the insurance industry, and the demand for insurance has also increased rapidly. Policies such as "ten new countries" and "paying for the second generation" have also greatly promoted the development of the insurance industry. According to the statistics of the Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC), the compound annual growth rate of total premiums in 2012-2014 is 20%, the compound annual growth rate of new business value in 2012-2014 is 12%. In an increasingly competitive society, the insurance industry is becoming more and more active. The evaluation of investment value is paid more and more attention by external investors and internal managers. Therefore, how to evaluate the value of the insurance industry is also getting more and more attention. Because of the particularity of insurance industry, different from the general financial industry, its business has a long-term nature, so the general valuation model is not applicable. In this paper, we choose H insurance company as a case study by combining theoretical analysis and case study. Firstly, we introduce the research background, research significance, the theoretical basis of the implicit value model and Olson's residual income model. Then the two valuation models are applied to the valuation of the company respectively. By analyzing the different applicable conditions of the two models, setting up assumptions, and the advantages and disadvantages of the specific application, the paper draws the conclusion of the case. Then, we apply the Olson residual income model to the four A-share listed insurance companies to push back the growth rate of residual income through the actual stock price, and compare it with the historical growth rate of residual income. Discovery is achievable. Finally, according to the results of the paper, draw a conclusion, point out the deficiencies and put forward suggestions. Through research and analysis, we can conclude that Olson's residual model is widely used, although the insurance industry has its own particularity, in general, this model is suitable for evaluating the value of insurance companies. In contrast, the intrinsic value takes into account the long premium period of the insurance company and the future profit, which is suitable for evaluating the value of the insurance company, but the actual operation is poor. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to choose a suitable valuation model for insurance companies and how to improve the disclosure of information in insurance industry.
【学位授予单位】：上海国家会计学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.3

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