峰值目标约束下由国家到企业的碳排放总量分配方法研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 10:56

本文选题：碳排放 + 峰值　；参考：《天津科技大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：2014年11月,中国政府通过《中美气候变化联合声明》首次正式提出于2030年左右实现二氧化碳排放峰值。2015年9月中美双方发表《中美元首气候变化联合声明》,声明指出中国计划2017年启动全国碳排放交易体系,推动清洁能源和节能减排的发展。这就意味着必须将这一目标分解到各地区,如何设计出一个公平合理的分配方法成了目前亟待解决的问题。本文首先采用2000-2012年中国30个省(市、自治区)相关统计数据,基于IPCC温室气体清单方法,构建了碳排放核算的项目框架,核算了中国各省历年的碳排放量,分析13年间省域能源消费碳排放量变化情况。同时,根据各省经济水平、人口、产业结构、能源结构、能源强度等因素,分析排放量及省域影响因素差异,把30个省划分不同特征的碳排放类型。进一步,根据LMDI方法结合Kaya方程构建了一个基于人口、经济发展水平、经济结构、能源结构的碳影响因素分解模型,对我国2000-2012年间碳排放因素效应进行分析,结果表明:经济发展是导致我国碳排放飞速增长的主要因素;能源强度是抑制我国碳排放增加的主要因素;降低排放强度控制我国碳排放增加的一个潜在因素;人口因素对我国各区域碳排放的增长有正向因素,但影响较小。随后,本文将信息论中的信息熵理论引入到碳排放总量目标分解中,根据LMDI方法和研究结果,进一步将我国各地区碳排放的影响指标分解为人口规模、人均GDP、经济结构、能源结构、能源强度、排放强度和历史排放量七个指标。根据信息熵理论计算出各指标的信息熵和信息熵权重,根据熵权进一步计算出各地区的综合评价值,从而可以将减排目标量分配到全国30个省域。最后,从碳市场的角度,碳排放配额最终要分配到企业实体,而碳配额分配机制碳交易的基础和中心环节,基于国际上欧盟碳排放权配额分配方法的经验教训,结合国内碳试点配额分配机制的实践,对构建全国碳市场的碳配额分配方法提出建议。
[Abstract]:November 2014 The Chinese government, through the Joint statement on Climate change between China and the United States, formally proposed for the first time to achieve a peak carbon dioxide emission by around 2030. In September 2015, China and the United States issued the Joint statement on Climate change by the Heads of State of China and the United States. Start the national carbon trading system in 2017, Promote the development of clean energy and energy saving and emission reduction. This means that this goal must be decomposed into various regions, and how to design a fair and reasonable distribution method has become an urgent problem to be solved. In this paper, based on the IPCC greenhouse gas inventory method, the project framework of carbon emission accounting is constructed based on the statistical data of 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 2000 to 2012, and the carbon emissions of each province in China are calculated. To analyze the changes of carbon emissions from energy consumption over the past 13 years. At the same time, according to the economic level, population, industrial structure, energy structure, energy intensity and other factors of each province, this paper analyzes the difference of emission and influence factors in provincial area, and divides 30 provinces into different carbon emission types with different characteristics. Furthermore, according to LMDI method and Kaya equation, a decomposition model of carbon factors based on population, economic development level, economic structure and energy structure is constructed, and the effects of carbon emission factors in China from 2000 to 2012 are analyzed. The results show that economic development is the main factor leading to the rapid increase of carbon emissions in China, the energy intensity is the main factor to restrain the increase of carbon emissions in China, and the reduction of emission intensity is a potential factor to control the increase of carbon emissions in China. Population factors have a positive effect on the growth of carbon emissions in different regions of China, but have little effect on the growth of carbon emissions in different regions of China. Then, the information entropy theory of information theory is introduced into the target decomposition of total carbon emissions. According to the LMDI method and the research results, the impact indicators of carbon emissions in various regions of China are further decomposed into population size, per capita GDP, economic structure. Energy structure, energy intensity, emission intensity and historical emissions seven indicators. According to the information entropy theory, the information entropy and the information entropy weight of each index are calculated, and the comprehensive evaluation values of each region are further calculated according to the entropy weight, so that the emission reduction target can be allocated to 30 provinces in China. Finally, from the perspective of the carbon market, the carbon emission quota should be allocated to the enterprise entity, and the basis and central link of the carbon trading mechanism of the carbon quota allocation mechanism, based on the experience and lessons learned from the international European Union carbon emission quota allocation method. Based on the practice of domestic carbon quota allocation mechanism, the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to construct a national carbon market for carbon quota allocation.
【学位授予单位】：天津科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X32

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