环境技术进步方向的内生化机理和政策激励效应检验

发布时间：2018-04-20 16:19

本文选题：环境政策 + 环境技术　；参考：《吉林大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：解决经济和环境之间矛盾的关键在于环境技术进步,只有清洁技术在经济活动中逐步取代非清洁技术,才能实现经济发展向清洁方向转变。环境技术进步在自由市场条件下发展速度低于社会福利最优水平,需要政府环境政策激励才能快速发展。因此,研究环境技术进步内生机理和检验环境政策效果具有重要意义。本文构建一般均衡模型用以分析环境技术进步内生化机理,并选用专利数据作为衡量技术进步水平的指标,实证检验影响中国制造业行业环境技术进步方向的主要因素和中国环境法律激励环境技术进步的效果,以及油价在中国汽车产业环境技术进步方向方面所起作用,并得到以下主要结论:一、构建以清洁和非清洁两部门为主体的一般均衡模型,发现不同经济环境条件下影响清洁技术进步方向的因素存在差异。在封闭经济环境下,技术进步方向主要受当前技术水平影响,技术水平高的部门其技术进步速度更快;技术水平低的部门其技术进步速度较慢,因而需要政府环境政策介入以促进清洁技术发展。例如,对污染产品征收从价税和对清洁产品研发进行补贴两种政策手段对清洁技术进步具有激励作用。在开放经济环境条件下,研究发现国际间货物贸易可提升两部门产品相对价格,并增强发展中国家在非清洁产品方面的比较优势,对清洁技术进步具有负向作用。另外,发展中国家通过技术引进和模仿同样能够提高清洁技术水平。二、自由市场条件下,清洁和非清洁部门的技术进步率取决于两部门技术储备和科学家数量。均衡增长路径上,清洁和非清洁技术进步率和劳动力结构均受科学家贡献率影响。当非清洁部门污染排放达到环境承载上限时,经济增长将依赖清洁技术部门。若两部门间呈替代关系,清洁部门技术进步速度将逐步提升;当两部门间为互补关系时,自由市场条件下清洁技术进步将停滞。均衡增长路径在两部门间呈替代关系时,为不稳定均衡,外部冲击可导致经济转向清洁或非清洁方向。因此,通过环境政策能够实现经济发展方向转变。均衡增长路径在两部门间为互补关系时,为稳定均衡,清洁技术进步受到制约。清洁部门科学家规模是决定清洁技术进步率的关键。本文建议,政府可从劳动力结构方面入手,通过工资补贴激励科学家进入清洁部门,通过教育补贴诱导年轻人从事清洁技术研发,如此清洁部门科学家规模的迅速扩大将促进清洁技术长期快速发展。三、本文选用中国制造业行业专利面板数据展开实证分析,结果表明:国际贸易、环境规制、市场收益和所有制结构对环境技术进步方向具有偏向性影响。第一、出口贸易对清洁技术和非清洁技术均有正向影响,但偏向非清洁技术方向;第二、进口贸易显著激励清洁技术进步,对非清洁技术进步有负向影响,偏向清洁技术方向;第三、环境规制具有激励清洁技术进步效果,但对非清洁技术进步同样有正向影响且作用更强,本文认为此种情形是由于中国目前环境政策以行政指令型为主,环境监管不完善和执法不严格所造成;第四、国内市场收益对清洁技术和非清洁技术进步都有激励效果,但对非清洁技术进步影响更强,偏向非清洁方向,可见市场经济型环境政策是促进清洁技术进步的最佳手段;第五、国有经济规模与清洁技术和非清洁技术进步均呈负向关系,外资规模和清洁技术进步呈正向关系,与非清洁技术进步呈负向关系,偏向清洁方向。四、通过虚拟变量方法,本文检验了环境保护法律出台之后清洁技术进步率的变化情况,结果表明清洁技术进步率提升大约1%。利用倍差法估计中国环境保护法律对环境技术进步的影响,结果表明中国环境保护法律对清洁技术进步率并未产生统计上显著的影响,即清洁技术进步并未因环境保护法律的出台而以高于环保法律出台前的速度发展。本文检验不同滞后期下环境保护法律的实施效果,回归结果显示中国环境保护法律对环境技术进步的激励效果并未随时间推移而显现。针对中国环境保护法律的边际影响的检验结果表明中国清洁技术进步率并未因中国环境保护法律的出台而产生显著变化。五、选择含税油价作为衡量碳税政策的指标,利用中国汽车产业清洁技术和非清洁技术发明专利面板数据,本文采用泊松回归和负二项式回归两种模型,分析燃油价格上升对清洁和非清洁技术进步方向的影响,检验路径依赖效应。结果表明,油价提升对汽车企业清洁技术进步具有促进作用,对非清洁技术进步具有抑制作用,并且随时间增加抑制作用逐渐增强。厂商自身技术储备对未来同领域的技术进步起主导作用,体现出明显的路径依赖效应。中国厂商的技术进步同样受到国内其他厂商技术储备的影响,国外厂商技术存量对中国企业技术专利的申请影响较弱。此外,收入水平对清洁技术和非清洁技术都有正向影响,但不显著。油价滞后项对非清洁技术进步有显著负向影响,对清洁技术进步影响则较弱。因此,政府通过税收提高油价能够调整汽车产业技术进步方向,以此促进清洁技术进步,降低温室气体排放。
[Abstract]:The key to solving the contradiction between the economy and the environment lies in the progress of the environment technology. Only the clean technology is gradually replacing the non clean technology in the economic activity, can the economic development change to the clean direction. The development of the environmental technology is lower than the optimal level of the social welfare under the free market conditions, and the government's environmental policy can be encouraged. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the endogenous mechanism of environmental technology progress and to test the effect of environmental policy. This paper constructs a general equilibrium model to analyze the endogenous biochemical mechanism of environmental technology progress, and selects patent data as an indicator to measure the level of technological progress, and empirically examines the influence of environmental technology progress in China's manufacturing industry. The main factors and the effect of environmental law on environmental technology progress in China, and the effect of oil price on the direction of environmental technology progress in China's auto industry, and get the following main conclusions: first, a general equilibrium model with clean and non clean two departments as the main body is constructed, and the cleaning technology is found under different economic environment conditions. There are different factors in the direction of progress. In the closed economic environment, the direction of technological progress is mainly influenced by the current technological level, and the technology progress is faster in the Department with high technical level; the technology progress is slow in the low technical level. Therefore, the government environmental policies need to intervene to promote the development of clean technology. For example, the pollution production. In the open economy environment, the research found that international trade in goods can improve the relative price of two sector products, and enhance the comparative advantages of developing countries in non clean products, and improve the clean technology progress in the open economic environment. In addition, the developing countries can also improve the level of clean technology through technology introduction and imitation. Two, under free market conditions, the rate of technological progress in the clean and non clean sectors depends on the two sector technical reserves and the number of scientists. On the balanced growth path, the rate of clean and non clean technology progress and the structure of the labor force are both on the balanced growth path. It is influenced by the contribution rate of scientists. When the pollution emission of the non clean sector reaches the upper limit of the environmental bearing capacity, the economic growth will depend on the clean technology sector. If the two departments have an alternative relationship, the speed of the technological progress of the clean sector will be gradually improved; when the two sectors are complementary, the clean technology progress will stagnate under the free market conditions. When the path is an alternative relationship between the two sectors, the external impact can lead to a clean or non clean economic direction. Therefore, the economic development direction can be realized through environmental policy. The equilibrium growth path is a stable equilibrium and the clean technology progress is restricted when the equilibrium growth path is complementary to the two sectors. Clean sector scientists Scale is the key to determining the rate of clean technology progress. This article suggests that the government can start with the labor structure, encourage scientists to enter the clean sector through wage subsidies, and induce young people to engage in clean technology research and development through educational subsidies, so that the rapid expansion of the scale of scientists in the clean sector will promote the long-term and rapid development of clean technology. Three, this paper uses the patent panel data of China's manufacturing industry to carry out an empirical analysis. The results show that international trade, environmental regulation, market income and ownership structure have a biased impact on the direction of environmental technology progress. First, export trade has a positive impact on clean technology and non clean technology, but it is biased towards non clean technology; Two, import trade significantly encourages clean technology progress, has a negative impact on the progress of non clean technology, and is biased towards the direction of clean technology. Third, environmental regulation has the effect of encouraging clean technology progress, but also has a positive impact on the progress of non clean technology and has a stronger role. This kind of situation is due to the current environmental policy of China as a result of administration. Instruction type is the main type, the environmental supervision is not perfect and the law enforcement is not strict; fourth, the domestic market income has an incentive effect on clean technology and non clean technology progress, but it has more influence on the progress of non clean technology and is biased towards the non clean direction. It can be seen that the market economy environment policy is the best means to promote the progress of clean technology; Fifth The economic scale has a negative relationship with clean technology and the progress of non clean technology. The scale of foreign investment has a positive relationship with the progress of clean technology. It has a negative relationship with the progress of non clean technology and is biased towards the clean direction. Four. Through the virtual variable method, this paper examines the change of the rate of clean technology progress after the environmental protection law is out of stage. The improvement rate of clean technology has been improved by about 1%.. The effect of China's environmental protection law on environmental technology progress is estimated by the difference method. The result shows that China's environmental protection law does not have a significant statistical impact on the progress rate of clean technology. That is, the progress of clean technology is not introduced by environmental protection law and is higher than environmental protection law. The results show that the incentive effect of China's environmental protection law on environmental technology progress does not appear with the passage of time. The results of the marginal impact of China's environmental protection law show that the progress rate of China's clean technology is not in the middle. The law of environmental protection in China has produced significant changes. Five, choosing the price of oil as a measure of the carbon tax policy, using the Chinese automobile industry clean technology and the non clean technology to invent the patent panel data, this paper uses two models of Poisson regression and negative binomial regression to analyze the clean and non clean technology in the rise of fuel price. The result shows that the improvement of oil price has a promoting effect on the progress of clean technology in automobile enterprises, and has a inhibitory effect on the progress of non clean technology, and the inhibition effect is gradually increased with time. The technological progress of Chinese manufacturers is also affected by the technical reserves of other domestic manufacturers, and the technological stock of foreign manufacturers has a weak impact on the application of Chinese enterprises' technology patents. In addition, the income level has a positive impact on clean technology and non clean technology, but it is not significant. The lag item on oil prices is not clean technology progress. There is a significant negative impact on the progress of clean technology. Therefore, the government can adjust the technological progress of the automobile industry by raising the price of oil through tax, in order to promote the progress of clean technology and reduce the emission of greenhouse gas.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X38

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