人口年龄结构、人口迁移与东北地区经济增长

发布时间：2018-04-23 09:54

本文选题：经济增长 + 人口年龄结构　；参考：《武汉大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国东北地区经济增长相对迟缓,特别是自2012年以来,其经济增速更是连续多年处于全国垫底水平,呈现"断崖式"下跌的局面。与此同时,东北地区的人口形势也发生了剧烈变化:一方面,人口年龄结构迅速转变,老龄化发展速度远快于全国平均水平,且生育率极低,呈现出"少子化"的特点;另一方面,人口流失规模不断扩大且呈加速发展态势,其人口在全国所占比重迅速下降。在此背景下,探讨东北地区人口年龄结构与人口迁移的现状及发展趋势,研究人口因素与东北经济增长之间相互作用机理,对准确认识东北地区经济增长乏力的诱因,促进区域经济可持续发展具有一定的理论价值与现实意义。本文对已有文献中有关东北地区经济地位下滑的原因进行了梳理,发现以往学者们往往把东北经济增长的迟滞归咎于制度、产业结构等方面的原因,而忽视了人口因素对当地经济增长的影响。在东北地区人口年龄结构发生剧烈变化、人口流失规模持续扩大的背景下,忽视上述因素,将无法准确解释东北地区经济增长下滑的原因。基于此,本文的研究聚焦于人口年龄结构、人口迁移对东北地区经济增长的影响。在对东北地区人口与经济因素变动进行分析的基础上,本文构建了扩展的索洛增长模型,在原模型中引入了人口年龄结构与人口净迁移率变量进行了理论推导,求出平衡增长路径上的人均资本和人均产出,发现人口年龄结构与人口迁移会对人均产出增速造成影响。基于此,本文采用东北地区40个地级市的面板数据进行了实证估计,得出的主要结论有:①伴随户籍改变的人口净迁出与不伴随户籍改变的人口净流出都对东北地区经济增长产生显著不利影响,且与不伴随户籍改变的人口净流出相比,伴随户籍改变的人口净迁出所造成的不利影响更大;②人口年龄结构与东北地区经济增长高度相关,不同年龄段人口对东北地区经济增长的影响不同,其中35-44岁年龄段的人口对其经济增长的促进作用最大,而过高的人口抚养比会削弱经济增长的动力,但其影响在经济发展水平不同的地区会略有差异;③针对其他经济变量的计量分析表明投资率和劳动力参与率的变化没有像预期中的那样对东北经济增长产生明显的促进作用,东北地区的经济增长具有高度的惯性,且出现了区域经济增长收敛现象;④经济发展状况也会同样影响到人口迁移流动,较高的经济发展水平及对外开放程度有助于人口流入,落后的产业结构和过高的投资率对人口流入则施加了明显的阻力。基于实证分析结果,本文提出了两方面政策建议:①东北地区要及时科学综合地应对人口老龄化,适度提高生育率,延迟退休并开发老年人力资源,促进充分就业;②东北地区要努力扭转人口流失的局面,放宽户籍限制,吸引人口迁入,调整经济结构,增强就业吸引力。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the economic growth in Northeast China has been relatively slow, especially since 2012, its economic growth rate has been at the bottom of the national level for many years, showing a "cliff-like" situation. At the same time, the population situation in Northeast China has also changed dramatically: on the one hand, the age structure of the population changes rapidly, the aging development rate is far faster than the national average, and the fertility rate is extremely low, showing the characteristics of "minority children"; On the other hand, the scale of population loss is expanding and developing rapidly, and the proportion of population in the whole country is decreasing rapidly. In this context, the present situation and development trend of population age structure and population migration in Northeast China are discussed, and the interaction mechanism between population factors and economic growth in Northeast China is studied. Promoting the sustainable development of regional economy has certain theoretical value and practical significance. This paper combs the causes of the economic status decline in Northeast China in the literature, and finds that scholars often attribute the delay in economic growth in Northeast China to institutional, industrial structure and other reasons. And ignored the population factor to the local economic growth influence. Under the background that the age structure of population in Northeast China changes dramatically and the scale of population loss continues to expand, ignoring the above factors will not accurately explain the reasons for the economic growth decline in Northeast China. Based on this, this paper focuses on the age structure of population and the impact of population migration on economic growth in Northeast China. Based on the analysis of the changes of population and economic factors in Northeast China, this paper constructs an extended Solow growth model, and introduces the population age structure and the population net migration rate variables into the original model for theoretical derivation. Find out the per capita capital and output in the balanced growth path, and find that the age structure and migration of population will have an impact on the growth rate of per capita output. Based on this, this paper uses the panel data of 40 prefecture-level cities in Northeast China to carry out empirical estimates. The main conclusions are that both the net emigration of population with the change of household registration and the net outflow of population without the change of household registration have a significant negative impact on the economic growth of Northeast China, and compared with the net outflow of population without the change of household registration, The negative impact caused by the net migration of the population with the change of household registration is even greater. The age structure of the population is highly correlated with the economic growth of the Northeast region, and the influence of different age groups on the economic growth of the Northeast region is different. The population of 35-44 years old has the most important role in promoting economic growth, while the excessive dependency ratio will weaken the impetus of economic growth, but its influence will be slightly different in different regions with different economic development level. (3) the econometric analysis of other economic variables shows that the changes of investment rate and labor force participation rate have not obviously promoted the economic growth in Northeast China as expected, and the economic growth in Northeast China has a high degree of inertia. Moreover, the convergence of regional economic growth will also affect the migration of population, and a higher level of economic development and opening to the outside world will contribute to the inflow of population. Backward industrial structure and excessive investment rate exert obvious resistance to population inflow. Based on the results of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward two policy suggestions: to deal with the aging of population scientifically and comprehensively, to raise the fertility rate moderately, to delay retirement and to develop the human resources of the elderly to promote full employment; (2) Northeast China should make great efforts to reverse the situation of population loss, relax the household registration restrictions, attract people to move in, adjust the economic structure, and enhance the attraction of employment.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2

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