重庆市农作物生物灾害时间特征研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 22:35

本文选题：农作物生物灾害 + 时间变化　；参考：《西南大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：农作物的种植对于人类生存、发展的意义和在国家经济中的地位毋庸置疑,但由于农作物的生长主要是在自然环境下进行,因此农作物的生长受自然灾害的影响最大,全球气候变化使得农作物的生长对于环境更加敏感,面临的形势也更加严峻。农作物生物灾害是自然灾害的重要类型之一,近几十年农作物生物灾害造成的的损失呈逐年增大趋势,但目前我国对农作物生物灾害的发生规律与防灾减灾方面的研究仍然相对落后,因此加强我国农作物生物灾害的研究势在必行。重庆市是我国农业人口最多、农业在国民经济中比重最大的直辖市,全市2014年农业户籍人口2003.08万人,可用耕地约243.84万公顷,人均耕地仅为0.07公顷。因此保持农作物的稳定生产对于重庆市经济的平稳快速发展起到了至关重要的作用。然而在近20多年来,受全球气候变暖、耕种制度的变化以及人为耕种活动等因素影响,重庆市农作物生物灾害的呈现出了明显的加剧趋势。因此,对重庆市农作物生物灾害发生面积和发生率的时间变化、农作物生物灾害造成的农作物产量损失的时间变化、农作物生物灾害综合分析以及农作物生物灾害防治减灾效果分析等方面的研究显得尤为必要。本文利用1950-2012年重庆市农作物生物灾害灾情统计数据,利用线性趋势法、Hurst指数法、Morelet小波分析法和灰色GM(1,1)预测模型法,以年际和年代际为单位分别探索重庆市农作物生物灾害发生面积和发生率的时间变化特征、重庆市生物灾害造成的农作物损失量和受损程度的时间变化特征以及重庆市农作物生物灾害防治后的防治减灾效果的时间变化特征;运用层次分析方法确定重庆市农作物生物灾害的权重,并在此基础上对重庆市农作物生物灾害进行综合分析。本文研究得到如下结论:(1)重庆市农作物生物灾害发生面积和发生率时间变化特征如下:重庆市农作物病虫害、鼠害发生面积和发生率均呈明显上升趋势,农作物草害发生面积和发生率均呈下降趋势;农作物病虫害、草害、鼠害发生率分别存在着准6年和23年的震荡周期、准5年、10年和23年的震荡周期、准23年的震荡周期;农作物病虫害、鼠害发生率时间序列的Hurst指数分别为0.9047和0.8063,表明重庆市未来农作物病虫害和鼠害发生率整体呈不断上升趋势;重庆市农作物生物灾害的灰色GM(1,1)预测表明,2022年农作物病虫害、草害和鼠害发生面积分别为5084.87千公顷次、1599.79千公顷次和423.82千公顷次,发生率分别为155.73%、48.46%和13.72%。(2)重庆市生物灾害造成的农作物损失量和受损程度时间变化特征如下:重庆市病虫害、鼠害造成的粮食作物损失量和受损程度呈明显的上升趋势,而草害造成的粮食作物损失量和受损程度呈波动下降趋势;病虫害、草害、鼠害造成的粮食作物受损程度分别存在着准9年和23年的震荡周期、准4年的震荡周期、准9年和准23年的震荡周期;病虫害、草害、鼠害造成的粮食作物受损程度时间序列的Hurst指数分别为0.9023、0.6119、0.7814,表明重庆市未来生物灾害造成的粮食作物受损程度整体变化趋势与过去一致。重庆市病虫害、草害造成的油料作物损失量和受损程度均呈明显的上升趋势;病虫害、草害造成的油料作物受损程度分别存在着准10年和25年的震荡周期、准6年的震荡周期;病虫害、草害造成的油料作物受损程度时间序列的Hurst指数分别为0.8959、0.573,表明重庆市未来病虫害、草害造成的油料作物受损程度整体变化趋势与过去一致。重庆市病虫害造成的其他作物损失量和受损程度呈上升趋势,而草害造成的其他作物损失量和受损程度呈下降趋势;病虫害、草害造成的其他作物受损程度分别存在着准6年和27年的震荡周期、准5年和准27年的震荡周期;病虫害、草害造成的其他作物受损程度时间序列的Hurst指数分别为0.7597、0.6105,表明重庆市未来病虫害、草害造成的油料作物受损程度整体变化趋势与过去一致。预测表明,2022年病虫害、草害和鼠害造成的粮食作物损失量分别为259488.15吨、38601.53吨和42008.89吨,病虫害、草害和鼠害造成的粮食作物受损程度分别为139.87kg/ha、21.18kg/ha和22.95kg/ha;病虫害、草害造成的油料作物损失量分别为15915.34吨和6367.69吨,受损程度分别为55.56kg/ha、22.12kg/ha;病虫害、草害造成的其他作物损失量分别为175082.38吨和36561.14吨,受损程度分别为130.14kg/ha、33.22kg/ha。(3)重庆市农作物病虫害、草害防治面积和防治率均呈上升趋势,农作物鼠害防治面积呈上升趋势,而其防治率呈缓慢下降趋势。重庆市粮食作物病虫害、草害防治后的挽回损失量和减灾率呈现上升趋势,年均挽回损失量和减灾率分别为为891229.71吨和80.51%、115887.49吨和71.3%,粮食作物鼠害防治后的挽回损失呈上升趋势,年均损失量为150945.89吨,防治后的减灾率呈下降趋势,年均减灾率为51.69%;油料作物病虫害、草害防治后的挽回损失量和减灾率呈现上升趋势,其年均挽回损失量和减灾率分别为14076.99吨和69.19%、7627.73吨和66.13%;重庆市其他作物病虫害、草害防治后的挽回损失量和减灾率均呈现上升趋势,其年均损失量和减灾率分别为272210.32吨和75.95%、37563.96吨和60.63%。(4)重庆市农作物病虫害、草害和鼠害对重庆市农作物生物灾害受灾强度的影响权重值分别为:0.637、0.1047和0.2583;1989-2012年间重庆市农作物生物灾害出现轻灾、中灾、重灾和特大灾的年份分别有10年、7年、4年和3年;预测表明,2017-2032年期间,重庆市农作物生物灾害将会出现3个重、特大灾年份,分别在2017-2019期间、2025-2027期间和2031-2032期间。
[Abstract]:The planting of crops has no doubt about the significance of human survival, the significance of development and the status in the national economy. However, because the growth of crops is mainly in the natural environment, the growth of crops is most affected by natural disasters, and the global climate change makes the growth of crops more sensitive to the environment and the situation is even more. Crop biological disasters are one of the most important types of natural disasters. The loss of crop biological disasters in recent decades is increasing year by year. However, the research of crop biological disasters and disaster prevention and mitigation in China is still relatively backward. The city of Chongqing is the largest agricultural population in China and the largest proportion of agriculture in the national economy. In 2014, the population of the city was 20 million 30 thousand and 800 people with agricultural household registration, 2 million 438 thousand and 400 hectares of cultivated land, and 0.07 hectares of cultivated land per capita. Therefore, the stable production of crops has played an important role in the smooth and rapid development of Chongqing's economy. However, in the past 20 years, affected by the global warming, the change of farming system and the human farming activities, the crop biological disasters in Chongqing showed an obvious intensification trend. Therefore, the time changes in the area and incidence of crop biological disasters in Chongqing, and the agriculture caused by the crop biological disasters were brought forward. The time change of crop yield loss, the comprehensive analysis of crop biological disasters and the effect analysis of crop biological disaster prevention and reduction are particularly necessary. In this paper, the linear trend method, Hurst index method, Morelet wavelet analysis and grey GM are used in the 1950-2012 year statistical data of crop biological calamity in Chongqing. 1,1) the prediction model method was used to explore the time variation characteristics of the occurrence area and incidence of crop biological disasters in Chongqing, and the time change characteristics of crop loss and damage degree caused by biological disasters in Chongqing and the time of preventing and reducing the effect of disaster prevention and control after the prevention and control of crop raw materials in Chongqing. The weight of the crop biological disasters in Chongqing was determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and on this basis, the crop biological disasters in Chongqing were analyzed synthetically. The following conclusions were obtained: (1) the variation characteristics of the occurrence area and occurrence rate of crop biological disasters in Chongqing were as follows: crop disease and insect pests in Chongqing City, rats The area and incidence of damage occur obviously, the area and incidence of crop grass damage are decreasing, and the incidence of crop diseases, insect pests, grass and rodent damage has a quasi 6 year and 23 year oscillation period respectively, the oscillation period of 5 years, 10 and 23 years, the period of quasi 23 years, crop diseases and insect pests, and the rate of rodent damage The Hurst index of the sequence was 0.9047 and 0.8063 respectively, indicating that the overall crop pests and insect pests and the incidence of rodent damage in Chongqing were increasing in the future, and the grey GM (1,1) prediction of crop biological disasters in Chongqing showed that the area of crop diseases and insect pests, grass and rodent damage in 2022 were 5 million 84 thousand and 870 hectares, 1 million 599 thousand and 790 hectares and 423.82 respectively. The incidence of crop loss and damage caused by biological disasters in Chongqing city is 155.73%, 48.46% and 13.72%. (2). The time changes of crop loss and damage degree in Chongqing city are as follows: disease and insect damage in Chongqing, the loss of grain crops and the degree of damage caused by rodent damage, and the amount of crop loss and damage caused by grass damage The fluctuation trend of the fluctuation is: the degree of damage to grain crops caused by diseases and insect pests, grass and rodent damage has a period of 9 and 23 years, a quasi 4 year oscillation period, a quasi 9 year and a quasi 23 year concussion cycle, and the damage degree of grain crops caused by diseases and insect pests, grass and rodent damage is 0.9023,0.6119,0.7814, respectively. The overall change trend of the damage degree of the grain crops caused by the future biological disasters in the city of Chongqing is the same as that in the past. The loss of oil crops and the damage degree of the oil crops caused by the disease and insect pests, the damage degree of the oil crops caused by the disease and insect pests and the grass damage are stored in the oscillation period of 10 and 25 years respectively, and the earthquake of 6 years The Hurst index of the time series of the damage degree of the oil crops caused by the disease and insect pests and the grass damage is 0.8959,0.573 respectively. It indicates that the future disease and insect damage in Chongqing city and the damage degree of the oil crops caused by the grass damage are the same as that in the past. The loss and damage degree of other crops caused by diseases and insect pests in Chongqing are on the rise, and the grass damage is the same. The loss of other crops and the degree of damage of other crops showed a downward trend, and the damage degree of other crops caused by diseases and insect pests was 6 and 27 years, respectively, for 5 years and 27 years. The time series of other crop damage caused by diseases and pests and grass damage were 0.7597,0.6105, respectively. The overall change trend of the damage degree of the oil crops caused by grass damage in the future is the same as that in the past. The forecast shows that the loss of grain crops caused by diseases and insect pests, grass and rodent damage in 2022 were 259488.15 tons, 38601.53 tons and 42008.89 tons respectively, and the damage degree of grain crops caused by disease and insect pests, grass and rodent damage were 139.87kg/ha, 21 respectively. .18kg/ha and 22.95kg/ha; the loss of oil crops caused by insect pests and grass pests were 15915.34 tons and 6367.69 tons respectively. The damage degree was 55.56kg/ha, 22.12kg/ha, diseases and insect pests, and other crop losses caused by grass damage were 175082.38 tons and 36561.14 tons respectively, the degree of damage was 130.14kg/ha, 33.22kg/ha. (3) Chongqing crop disease and insect pests, respectively. The area of prevention and control of grass damage and control rate are on the rise, and the prevention and control area of crop rodent pest is on the rise, and its control rate has a slow decline trend. The recovery loss and disaster reduction rate of grain crops in Chongqing city are rising, and the average annual recovery loss and disaster reduction rate are 891229.71 tons and 80.51%, 1158 respectively. 87.49 tons and 71.3%, after the prevention and control of crop rodent damage, the recovery loss showed an upward trend, the annual average loss was 150945.89 tons, the rate of disaster reduction after prevention and control decreased, the annual average rate of disaster reduction was 51.69%, oil crops and insect pests, the recovery loss and disaster reduction rate after the prevention and control of grass damage showed an upward trend, and the annual average salvage loss and disaster reduction rate were respectively 14076.99 tons and 69.19%, 7627.73 tons and 66.13%, other crops and pests in Chongqing, the recovery loss and disaster reduction rate after the prevention and control of grass are all rising, the annual average loss and disaster reduction rate are 272210.32 tons and 75.95%, 37563.96 tons and 60.63%. (4) Chongqing agricultural plant diseases and insect pests, grass and rodent pests to crop biological disasters in Chongqing The weight values of the damage intensity were respectively: 0.637,0.1047 and 0.2583; the year of 1989-2012 Chongqing crop biological disasters occurred light, medium, heavy and mega disasters, respectively, 10 years, 7 years, 4 years and 3 years. The prediction showed that in 2017-2032 years, the agricultural biological disasters in Chongqing will appear 3 heavy, the catastrophic year, 201, respectively, 201. 7-2019 period, 2025-2027 period and 2031-2032 period.

【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：S4

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