经济周期对审计风险的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 18:30

本文选题：经济周期 + 审计风险　；参考：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：宏观经济的运行总是周而复始、连续不断地经历着繁荣、衰退、萧条和复苏。目前审计工作面临的最主要的宏观环境就是经济周期的波动,在已发表的文献中关于审计风险的影响因素的研究主要集中在微观层面,主要研究了企业的财务状况、关联方等重大交易、公司治理、内部控制有效性、收入与支出等具体微观经济行为对审计风险的影响,而没有考虑审计风险也会受到宏观经济周期波动这一宏观环境的影响,因此本文引入宏观经济周期波动这一宏观因素来研究对审计风险的影响,而不再局限于原有的微观视角。许多领域的经济活动指标会受到宏观经济周期波动的影响从而产生同向的变化,这种影响被称为宏观经济周期的扩张性。审计作为重要的经济活动之一,当然也会不可避免地受到这种扩张性的影响。本文将研究的重点从微观指标转换到宏观经济周期相关指标与审计活动的联动关系上面,对于影响审计风险的因素的范围进行了一定程度的扩大。本文在经济周期这一大背景下,对审计风险问题进行研究,利用计量分析方法对宏观经济周期、审计风险的相关性与因果性进行研究检验。在此基础上提出假设,本文提出两个假设:1.相比经济上升期,经济下降期的重大错报风险更高;2.相比经济上升期,经济下降期的检查风险更高;通过对两个假设的实证检验结果进行分析,从而得出经济周期与审计风险的相关关系。本文以2007-2015年中国沪深两市上市公司数据为研究样本,构建相应的审计风险模型,利用最小二乘法进行多元回归分析,从而对假设进行检验并得出最终结论。最后说明本文研究的创新性、局限性以及为未来进行更深入研究提出建设性意见。本文最终得出研究结论即相比于经济上升期,经济下降期的审计风险更高。本文将经济周期与审计风险相结合,既为现有经济周期的理论研究提供一定的微观基础,也为审计风险的理论研究提供了宏观视角。该实证研究结论为我们更准确的认识经济周期与审计风险的相互联动影响关系提供了理论依据,使我们可以更全面的把握在不同的宏观经济周期阶段中审计风险的变化及其影响机制。因此,本文的研究结果对于今后的审计风险的理论研究具有指导意义。
[Abstract]:The macro-economy always runs in cycles, experiencing booms, recessions, depressions, and recoveries. At present, the most important macroeconomic environment facing audit work is the fluctuation of economic cycle. In the published literature, the research on the influencing factors of audit risk is mainly focused on the micro level, which mainly studies the financial situation of enterprises. Related party and other major transactions, corporate governance, effectiveness of internal control, revenue and expenditure and other specific microeconomic behavior on audit risk, but not taking into account audit risk will also be affected by macroeconomic cycle fluctuations, Therefore, this paper introduces the macro factor of macroeconomic cycle fluctuation to study the impact on audit risk, and no longer confined to the original micro perspective. The indicators of economic activity in many fields will be influenced by the fluctuation of macroeconomic cycle, which is called expansibility of macroeconomic cycle. Audit as one of the important economic activities, of course, will inevitably be affected by this expansion. In this paper, the emphasis of the research is changed from microcosmic index to the linkage relationship between macroeconomic cycle related index and audit activity, and the scope of influencing factors of audit risk is expanded to a certain extent. In this paper, under the background of business cycle, the audit risk is studied, and the correlation and causality of audit risk are tested by econometric analysis method. On this basis, we propose two hypotheses: 1. The risk of major misstatement during the downturn is 2. 2% higher than during the upswing. Compared with the economic upswing period, the inspection risk in the economic decline period is higher, and the correlation between the economic cycle and the audit risk is obtained through the analysis of the empirical test results of two hypotheses. Based on the data of listed companies from 2007 to 2015 in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in China, this paper constructs a corresponding audit risk model and uses the least square method to carry out multivariate regression analysis, so as to test the hypothesis and draw the final conclusion. Finally, this paper explains the innovation and limitation of this study and puts forward constructive suggestions for further research in the future. The conclusion of this paper is that the audit risk is higher in the period of economic decline than in the period of economic growth. The combination of business cycle and audit risk not only provides a certain microscopic basis for the theoretical study of the existing economic cycle, but also provides a macro perspective for the theoretical study of audit risk. The conclusion of this empirical study provides a theoretical basis for us to understand the interaction between business cycle and audit risk more accurately. So that we can grasp the change of audit risk and its influence mechanism in different macroeconomic cycles. Therefore, the research results of this paper have guiding significance for the theoretical research of audit risk in the future.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F239.4;F124.8

【参考文献】