中国制造业国际竞争力及影响因素再考察—增加值贸易和传统贸易统计方法比较视角

发布时间：2018-04-27 19:34

本文选题：增加值贸易 + 制造业　；参考：《青岛大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：制造业作为一国实体经济的主体,其国际竞争力水平的高低,在很大程度上决定了该国综合国力的大小。在新型国际分工背景下,各国根据所占有生产要素的比较优势大小,专门集中于产品价值链不同增值环节的生产。这一分工特点使得以传统的“贸易流量”统计数据为基础来衡量一国制造业国际竞争力大小及其影响因素的做法越来越偏离现实。在这一背景下,如何准确衡量我国制造业总体及各部门国际竞争力的大小、探讨影响制造业国际竞争力的因素,从而进一步提出相应的政策、建议,指导我国制造业国际竞争力水平提升显得尤为重要。本文从增值贸易与传统贸易统计方法比较视角来分析、探讨中国制造业国际竞争力大小及影响因素。传统贸易统计方法计算衡量国际竞争力指标时,只考虑了最终产品的价值,而忽视了出口产品总价值中所包含的进口中间品的价值,使贸易数据表现出越来越严重的“重复计算”问题,用“失真”的贸易统计数据来测算和比较各国制造业国际竞争力,也就会造成测算和比较结果“失实”。本文在已有相关文献的基础上,采用WTO(World Trade Organization)和OECD(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)于2013年5月联合发布的世界各国TiVA(Trade in Value added)统计数据,计算中国制造业各部门的TC(Trade Competitiveness Index)和CA(Competitive Advantage Index)指数,并以此作为判断国际竞争力的指标进行制造业各部门国际竞争力的比较,通过与利用传统贸易统计数据测算的制造业国际竞争力进行比较,揭示两者的差异及其中的政策含义。论文采用1995—2011年中国制造业各部门增值贸易面板数据,选取基于增值贸易统计数据测算的衡量我国制造业国际竞争力水平的CA指数、劳动力成本、外商直接投资、研发投入、产业规模、年均汇率等指标,运用主成分和线性回归分析方法,实证检验影响我国制造业国际竞争力的主要因素。对比发现:首先,两种统计方法都表明我国劳动密集型制造业具有一定的竞争力,资本密集型制造业次之,而技术密集型制造业国际竞争力较弱。其次,我国制造业总体虽然在一定程度上具有竞争力,同时也面临着由于劳动力成本上升而导致的劳动密集型制造业竞争优势下降和对技术密集型制造业部门研发投入不足的挑战。实证分析表明:中国制造业总体及各部门国际竞争力的提升主要来自研发和外资投入,而行业规模的扩大并未对制造业总体及各部门的国际竞争力的提升起到积极作用。最后,根据实证分析结果,就如何改变我国制造业出口“大而不强”的局面,提升我国制造业国际竞争力提出相应的对策、建议。
[Abstract]:As the main body of a country's real economy, the level of international competitiveness of manufacturing industry determines to a great extent the overall national strength of the country. Under the background of new international division of labor, countries focus on the production of different value-added links in the product value chain according to the comparative advantage of the factors of production. This division of labor makes the traditional statistical data of "trade flow" as the basis to measure the international competitiveness of a country's manufacturing industry and its influencing factors are more and more deviated from reality. In this context, how to accurately measure the international competitiveness of the manufacturing industry in China, and explore the factors that affect the international competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, so as to further put forward the corresponding policies and suggestions. It is particularly important to guide the international competitiveness of our manufacturing industry. This paper analyzes the international competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry from the perspective of comparison of value-added trade and traditional trade statistical methods and discusses the factors affecting the international competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. Traditional trade statistics are used to calculate indicators of international competitiveness, taking into account only the value of the final product, while ignoring the value of the import intermediate contained in the total value of the export product. The trade data show more and more serious "double calculation" problem. If the "distorted" trade statistics are used to measure and compare the international competitiveness of the manufacturing industry of various countries, the results of calculation and comparison will be "inaccurate". Based on the related literatures, this paper calculates the TC(Trade Competitiveness Index and CA(Competitive Advantage Index index of China's manufacturing sectors by using the TiVA(Trade in Value added) statistics published jointly by WTO(World Trade Organization and OECD(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) in May, 2013. By comparing the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry with that of traditional trade statistics, this paper reveals the difference between the two and the policy implications. This paper adopts the value added trade panel data from 1995 to 2011, selects CA index, labor cost, foreign direct investment, R & D investment, which is based on the value added trade statistics to measure the international competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. The main factors influencing the international competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry are empirically tested by using the principal component and linear regression analysis methods, such as industrial scale, average annual exchange rate, and so on. First of all, the two statistical methods show that China's labor-intensive manufacturing industry has a certain competitiveness, capital-intensive manufacturing industry is second, while technology-intensive manufacturing industry is weak in international competitiveness. Secondly, although China's manufacturing industry is generally competitive to a certain extent, It also faces the challenge of declining competitive advantage in labor-intensive manufacturing due to rising labour costs and underspending on R & D in technology-intensive manufacturing sectors. The empirical analysis shows that the improvement of international competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing industry as a whole and various sectors mainly comes from R & D and foreign investment, but the expansion of industry scale does not play a positive role in enhancing the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry as a whole and all sectors. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on how to change the situation of "large but not strong" Chinese manufacturing exports and promote the international competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F424

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