人力资本对中国减缓气候变化的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 21:10

本文选题：人力资本 + 碳排放强度　；参考：《山东师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：气候变化是全世界共同面临的重大挑战之一。为了抑制气候变化,各国政府都在为此做出努力。我国政府在巴黎气候大会上承诺2030年左右二氧化碳排放量达到峰值等具体目标。人力资本作为非物质资本,是经济发展的源动力,对减缓气候变化具有重要影响。本文以除西藏之外的30个省区作为研究区域,探究各省区四类人力资本存量以及碳排放强度的时空变动趋势;在剖析人力资本对减缓气候变化作用机理的基础上,运用空间计量模型分析人力资本对减缓气候变化的影响程度,进而为中国减缓气候变化提供重要科学依据。全文重要分为六个部分:第一部分是引言部分,主要提出了论文的研究背景、理论及实践意义、国内外相关研究、相关研究评述、研究内容、研究方法与技术路线等。第二部分为理论部分,论文主要对人力资本、气候变化、碳排放等概念进行解析,并系统阐述了人力资本及碳排放的理论基础,主要包含了现代人力资本理论、内生增长理论、碳库兹涅茨曲线理论、碳足迹理论。最后阐述了人力资本对减缓气候变化的作用机制等。第三部分,基于人力资本的投资对人力资本进行分类、测算,描述中国1995年以来各省区时空变动趋势。得到的结论有:(1)在时间层面上,各类人力资本均在波动中上升;(2)在空间上,各类人力资本基础出现东高-西低的空间分异特征。第四部分,在分析中国各省区近20年来碳排放强度时空变动趋势的基础上,探讨四类人力资本与碳排放强度的关系及其作用机理。得到如下结论:(1)在时间上,我国各省区碳排放强度在波动中不断下降;(2)在空间上,我国碳排放强度呈现了北高-南低、高值-高值、低值-低值分别集聚的空间分异特征。然后,从经济、农业、社会、资源等四个方面分析减缓气候变化的影响因素。最后,先对各类型人力资本和碳排放强度做了简单的相关性分析,然后分析各类型人力资本对减缓气候变化的作用机理,发现各类人力资本通过作用于经济发展、居民收入与消费水平、技术创新与进步、城市化水平等间接作用于碳排放强度,进而影响气候变化。第五部分,将各类型人力资本作为解释变量,技术因素、财富因素作为控制变量,碳排放强度作为被解释变量,基于扩展的环境压力模型,运用1995-2014年中国各省区面板数据从全国、东、中、西及东北范围内分别建立空间杜宾模型、空间固定效应模型和空间随机模型。结论表明,基础型人力资本和知识型人力资本对碳排放强度呈现正向效应,技能型人力资本与制度性人力资本对碳排放强度具有负向效应;人口因素各指标的估计系数符号的正负性及显著性均不稳定;财富因素中的lnPGDP的估计系数在全国及东部地区为正,而在中、西及东北地区lnPGDP影响系数为负,碳排放强度随着经济的增长而减小;反映第三产业水平的变量lnTI估计系数只有东、中部地区显著,全国、西部及东北地区均不显著;技术因素中的lnRD的估计系数符号的正负性与显著性也不稳定,能源强度的系数均为正且显著。第六部分,总结论文的主要结论,并从加强人力资本、优化人力资本配置、培养低碳技术人才、调节产业机构、加大宏观调控等方面提出减缓气候变化的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Climate change is one of the major challenges facing the world. In order to curb climate change, governments are making efforts to do so. The government of our government at the Paris climate conference promised specific targets such as the peak value of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030. As a non material capital, human capital is the source of economic development and the reduction of gas. In this paper, 30 provinces and regions other than Tibet are used as research areas to explore the four types of human capital stock and the spatio-temporal change trend of carbon emission intensity in each province and region. Based on the analysis of the mechanism of the effect of human capital on mitigation of climate change, the spatial calculation model is used to analyze the mitigation of climate change by human capital. The impact degree of the paper will provide an important scientific basis for the mitigation of climate change in China. The full text is divided into six parts: the first part is an introduction, which mainly puts forward the research background, theoretical and practical significance, relevant research at home and abroad, related research review, research content, research method and technical route, etc. the second part is the theory. Part of the paper, the paper analyzes the concepts of human capital, climate change, carbon emission and so on, and systematically expounds the theoretical basis of human capital and carbon emissions, including the modern human capital theory, endogenous growth theory, carbon Kuznets curve theory and carbon footprint theory. Finally, the role of human capital on mitigation of climate change is expounded. Mechanism and so on. The third part, based on human capital investment to classify human capital, calculate and describe the temporal and spatial variation trend of China's provinces and regions since 1995. The conclusions are as follows: (1) in the time level, all kinds of human capital are rising in the fluctuation; (2) in space, the spatial differentiation characteristics of all kinds of human capital base in East High West low In the fourth part, based on the analysis of the temporal and spatial variation trend of carbon emission intensity in China's provinces in the last 20 years, the relationship between the four types of human capital and carbon emission intensity and its mechanism are discussed. (1) in time, the carbon emission intensity of China's provinces and regions is decreasing in the fluctuation; (2) in space, the carbon emission intensity in China presents The spatial differentiation characteristics of the North High South low, high value, high value, low value and low value are analyzed respectively. Then, the influence factors of climate change mitigation are analyzed from four aspects, such as economy, agriculture, society and resources. Finally, a simple correlation analysis is made to the various types of human capital and carbon emission intensity, and then the different types of human capital are analyzed to reduce the gas. In the fifth part, human capital is used as the explanatory variable, the technical factor and the wealth factor as the control change. Based on the extended environmental pressure model, the spatial doberen model, the spatial fixed effect model and the spatial random model were established from the national, East, middle, West and northeast of China, based on the extended environmental pressure model, and the basic human capital and the knowledge-based human capital were established. The carbon emission intensity has a positive effect, the skilled human capital and the institutional human capital have a negative effect on the carbon emission intensity; the positive and negative of the estimation coefficient symbols of the population factors are both positive and negative; the estimation coefficient of lnPGDP in the wealth factors is positive in the national and eastern regions, and in the middle, West and northeast region lnPGDP The influence coefficient is negative, and the carbon emission intensity decreases with the economic growth; the variable lnTI estimation coefficient, which reflects the level of the third industry, is only East, the central region is significant, the whole country, the West and the Northeast are not significant; the positive and negative of the lnRD estimation coefficient symbol in the technical factors are also not stable, and the energy intensity coefficient is all positive and the coefficient of energy intensity is positive and the coefficient of energy intensity is positive and the coefficient of energy intensity is positive and the coefficient of energy intensity is positive and the coefficient of energy intensity is positive and The sixth part summarizes the main conclusions of the paper, and puts forward some suggestions on the mitigation of climate change from the aspects of strengthening human capital, optimizing human capital allocation, cultivating low carbon technical personnel, adjusting industrial institutions and increasing macro regulation and control.

【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：K901

【参考文献】