我国经济波动的驱动因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 04:25

本文选题：外生冲击 + 经济波动　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：宏观经济研究的两个焦点是经济增长与经济波动。改革开放之后,我国在经济上取得了巨大的成就,但是同时也受到经济波动这一问题的困扰。同时,我国长期依靠总需求管理政策刺激经济增长,这也造成了产能过剩和重复建设等一系列问题。那么,我国经济波动的具体来源是什么,政府应该如何采取措施使得我国经济运行更加平稳,又应该如何权衡实施总需求管理政策和总供给管理政策?对于这些问题的回答,无论是对于我国经济持续健康发展还是人民生活水平的提高都有着十分重要的意义。此外,宏观经济学的研究方法在近些年取得了长足的进步和发展。早期对经济波动的研究主要集中在对经济周期进行识别和分类,而目前大部分经济学家的关注点则放在了外生冲击对于经济波动的影响。近些年对这一问题进行研究的主流模型就是动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型。本文也正是在这一理论背景下对我国经济波动问题展开研究。本文拟研究如下几个问题:首先在前人研究的基础上,构建包含需求冲击和供给冲击的DSGE模型,并把习惯偏好、垄断竞争和包含利率平滑与前瞻性行为的泰勒规则引入模型。模型中加入六个外生冲击,并分类为供给冲击和需求冲击,以研究供需冲击对主要经济变量的影响。其次,利用我国宏观经济时间序列数据,对模型中的参数进行校准和估计。随后通过脉冲响应、方差分解与历史分解进行实证分析,研究外生冲击对我国宏观经济的影响,识别我国经济波动驱动因素,并分析我国经济波动的主要来源。本文根据研究结果提出以下政策建议。首先,实证分析的结果显示各个变量波动的来源主要是供给冲击。因此,政府在适度刺激总需求的同时,应该对供给管理政策给予充分的重视。具体而言,政府应该放弃前阶段粗放式的投资政策,减少对总需求的大幅刺激;就货币政策而言,由于各个变量都会受到货币政策的一定影响,因此中央银行在实施货币政策时应该更加谨慎,避免因为政策因素导致经济的大幅波动。在美联储加息的大背景下,我国应该实施稳健的货币政策,注意防范其他国家货币政策对我国经济的溢出效应,避免宽松的货币政策造成资本外流和汇率波动。其次,就供给管理政策而言,政府应该加大投入,鼓励技术创新,依靠技术进步推动经济增长。此外,政府应该减小经济运行当中的阻力和摩擦,提高市场运行效率。具体来说,政府应该加强对垄断行业的监管,同时加快简政放权的步伐,以减少市场无效率造成的损失。最后,强调供给管理政策不是要放弃需求管理政策,政府应该综合利用多种宏观经济政策以促进经济持续发展,减小经济波动。
[Abstract]:The two focal points of macroeconomic research are economic growth and economic fluctuations. After the reform and opening up, our country has made great achievements in economy, but at the same time, it is beset by the problem of economic fluctuation. At the same time, China relies on aggregate demand management policy to stimulate economic growth for a long time, which also causes a series of problems such as overcapacity and repeated construction. So, what is the specific source of economic fluctuations in China, how should the government take measures to make our economy run more smoothly, and how to balance the implementation of aggregate demand management policy and total supply management policy? The answers to these questions are of great significance to the sustained and healthy development of our economy and the improvement of people's living standards. In addition, the research method of macroeconomics has made great progress and development in recent years. The early researches on economic fluctuation mainly focus on identifying and classifying economic cycles, while most economists now focus on the impact of exogenous shocks on economic volatility. In recent years, the mainstream model of this problem is the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. This article also carries on the research to our country economic fluctuation question under this one theory background. This paper intends to study the following problems: firstly, on the basis of previous studies, we construct a DSGE model which includes demand shock and supply shock, and introduce customary preference, monopoly competition and Taylor rule which includes smooth and forward-looking behavior of interest rate into the model. Six exogenous shocks are added to the model and classified as supply shocks and demand shocks to study the impact of supply and demand shocks on the main economic variables. Secondly, the parameters of the model are calibrated and estimated by using the macroeconomic time series data of our country. Then through impulse response, variance decomposition and historical decomposition, empirical analysis is carried out to study the impact of exogenous shocks on China's macroeconomic, identify the driving factors of China's economic fluctuations, and analyze the main sources of China's economic fluctuations. Based on the research results, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations. First of all, empirical analysis shows that the main source of volatility is supply shocks. Therefore, the government should pay enough attention to supply management policy while stimulating aggregate demand moderately. In particular, the government should abandon the extensive investment policy of the previous stage and reduce the substantial stimulus to aggregate demand. In the case of monetary policy, since all variables are affected by monetary policy, So central banks should be more cautious in implementing monetary policy and avoid sharp swings in the economy as a result of policy factors. Under the background of Fed raising interest rate, our country should implement steady monetary policy, pay attention to prevent the spillover effect of other countries' monetary policy on our country's economy, avoid capital outflow and exchange rate fluctuation caused by loose monetary policy. Secondly, in terms of supply management policy, the government should increase investment, encourage technological innovation, and rely on technological progress to promote economic growth. In addition, the government should reduce the resistance and friction in the operation of the economy and improve the efficiency of market operation. Specifically, the government should strengthen the supervision of monopoly industries and speed up the pace of decentralization in order to reduce the loss caused by market inefficiency. Finally, it is emphasized that the supply management policy is not to abandon the demand management policy, and the government should make comprehensive use of various macroeconomic policies to promote sustainable economic development and reduce economic fluctuations.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124.8

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