基于农产品贸易的中非农业虚拟水流动特征研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 22:24

本文选题：虚拟水 + 农产品贸易　；参考：《甘肃农业大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：水资源是人类生存和经济社会得以存在和发展的战略资源,水资源是农业生产不可或缺的基础性要素,在各国农产品对外贸易中越来越被视为重要参考。虚拟水贸易作为一种调节工具,已成为水资源紧缺国家或地区增加本国或本地虚拟水,平衡区域水资源,缓解国家和地区的水资源短缺状况,保障本国或区域的水资源安全与粮食安全的重要手段之一。为了推进中非经济较快平稳发展和加强资源节约,提升双方的粮食安全保障水平。本研究在查阅资源、收集数据、统计分析的基础上,通过理论框架构建,运用定量与定性相结合的方法,系统研究了中非农产品贸易现状、中非农产品贸易比较优势分析、中非农业水足迹和中非农产品贸易虚拟水流动,探讨了影响中非产品贸易和比较优势的影响因素,得出如下研究结论:1、中非农产品贸易发展速度较快,贸易总额逐年增加,规模不断扩大,中非农产品产业贸易特征表现为弱的产业内贸易和产业间贸易。中国与非洲农产品贸易在中国农产品贸易中所占份额不断提高,贸易顺差和逆差交替出现。中非农产品贸易的市场结构高度集中,主要的出口地区是西非和北非;中国从非洲进口农产品的地区主要是南非和西非。双边贸易国的GDP、人口、距离和是否是沿海国家对中非农产品贸易的影响显著。中国蚕丝的比较优势最大,饲料的比较劣势最大。非洲的可可及可可制品的比较优势最大,畜产品和水产品的比较劣势最大。自然资源禀赋、劳动力素质和农业科技水平的差异,影响了中非农产品贸易的比较优势。2、非洲大部分农作物的单位虚拟水含量均高于中国相应作物。相比谷物而言,非洲薯类及油棕、大豆、芝麻、甘蔗、天然橡胶、烟叶和腰果等大部分经济作物单位虚拟水含量与中国差距较小。从比较优势的角度,中国向非洲输出粮食、非洲向中国输出经济作物能够降低中非农业生产水耗水量。3、2003-2012年中国对非虚拟水进口量呈增加态势,而出口量变化趋势较平稳。2003年中国对非洲的农产品虚拟水贸易量为逆差,净出口22.78亿m3。从2004年起中国对非洲农产品贸易的虚拟水净进口量呈顺差,年均净出口40.58亿m3。2007-2008年之间中非农产品贸易的虚拟水进口量略有下降。从2009-2011年之间中国进口农产品的虚拟水量大幅度增长。4、中国对非农产品虚拟水进口主要来源于莫桑比克、南非、布基纳法索、贝宁及马里等国家,而出口主要流向南非、摩洛哥、科特迪瓦、阿尔及利亚、埃及以及尼日利亚等国;中国进口的农产品虚拟水主要由棉花、果品和畜产品带来,而出口大部分以茶叶和谷物的形式输出。不同年份各国家和产品类别在中非虚拟水贸易中的地位变化不大,中国对非农产品虚拟水贸易量呈现同时集中于少数国家和少数产品类别的现象。5、中非之间农产品虚拟水贸易在调剂农产品需求种类以满足区域消费需求的同时,分别为双方省下生产进口产品所需的14.44(中国)和42.73(非洲)亿立方米的水资源量。中非虚拟水净贸易表现为水资源利用效率低的地区输向水资源利用效率高的地区,这造成在全球尺度上年均产生浪费5.91亿立方米的水资源的负面效应。中非虚拟水贸易为双方农产品消费需求和水资源保障提供支撑,然而,从全球水资源的高效利用角度看不可持续。本文提出了提高非洲水资源利用率,保障非洲粮食安全、稳定全球粮食价格的政策建议,具体建议主要包括加强农业虚拟水贸易,提升水资源安全与粮食安全保障水平;找准合理定位;优化中非农产品贸易,加强中非技术贸易,降低非洲粮食生产水足迹,稳定国际市场。
[Abstract]:Water resources are the strategic resources for the existence and development of human survival and economic society. Water resources are indispensable basic elements of agricultural production. It is becoming more and more regarded as an important reference in the foreign trade of agricultural products in various countries. As an adjustment tool, virtual water trade has become a country or region of water resources to increase its own or local deficiency. Water resources, balance the regional water resources, alleviate the state and regional water shortage, guarantee the national or regional water resources security and food security, one of the important means. In order to promote the rapid and stable development of the China and Africa economy and strengthen the conservation of resources, improve the level of food security for both sides. This study is to consult resources, collect data, and statistics On the basis of the analysis, through the construction of the theoretical framework and the method of combining quantitative and qualitative, this paper systematically studies the trade status of China non-agricultural products, the comparative advantage analysis of China non-agricultural products trade, the water footprint of China African agriculture and the virtual water flow in China non-agricultural products trade, and discusses the influencing factors of the trade and comparative advantages of China and Africa. The following conclusions are as follows: 1, the development of China non-agricultural products trade is fast, the total trade volume is increasing year by year, and the scale is expanding. The trade characteristics of China non-agricultural products are characterized by weak intra industry trade and inter industry trade. The share of China's agricultural trade in China and Africa is increasing, the trade surplus and the deficit are alternating. The market structure of China non-agricultural products trade is highly concentrated, the main export areas are West Africa and North Africa; China's imports of agricultural products from Africa are mainly South Africa and West Africa. The GDP of the bilateral trading countries, the population, the distance and whether the coastal countries have a significant impact on the trade of China non-agricultural products. The comparative advantages of the cocoa and cocoa products in Africa are the largest, and the comparative advantages of livestock products and aquatic products are the largest. The natural resource endowment, the quality of labor and the level of agricultural science and technology have influenced the comparative advantage.2 of the Sino African agricultural products trade, and the Unit Virtual water content of most of the agricultural crops in Africa is higher than that of China. Compared with grain, the virtual water content of African potato and oil palm, soya bean, sesame, sugarcane, natural rubber, tobacco and cashew, and so on, has a small gap with China. From the comparative advantage point of view, China exports grain to Africa, and the export of economic crops from Africa to China can reduce the water consumption of.32003-20 in China and Africa. The import volume of non virtual water in China increased in the past 12 years, while the trend of export volume changed more smoothly in.2003 years. China's trade volume of agricultural products virtual water in Africa was deficit. Net exports 2 billion 278 million m3. from 2004 on the virtual water net import of agricultural products trade in Africa showed a surplus, and the annual net export was 4 billion 58 million m3.2007-2008 years between non-agricultural and agricultural products. The volume of virtual water imports from product trade has declined slightly. The virtual water volume of China's agricultural products increased by.4 from 2009-2011 years. China's imports of virtual water from non-agricultural products are mainly from Mozambique, South Africa, Burkina Faso, Benin and Mali, while the export owners are going to South Africa, Morocco, Cote d'Ivoire, Algeria. In Egypt and Nigeria and other countries, China's import of virtual water for agricultural products is brought mainly by cotton, fruit and livestock products, while most of the exports are exported in the form of tea and grain. The status of countries and products in different years in the virtual water trade of China and Africa has not changed much, and the volume of virtual water trade in non-agricultural products in China is simultaneously collected. In a few countries and a few product categories.5, the virtual water trade between China and Africa is the water resources of 14.44 (China) and 42.73 (Africa) billion cubic meters of water resources for the production of imported products, while the virtual water trade between China and Africa is water capital. Areas with high efficiency of water resources utilization in areas with low source utilization efficiency have resulted in a negative effect on the annual waste of 591 million cubic meters of water resources on the global scale. China Africa virtual water trade provides support for the consumer demand for agricultural products and water resources protection for both sides. However, it is not sustainable from the perspective of the efficient use of water resources in the world. This paper puts forward the policy proposals for improving the utilization rate of water resources in Africa, ensuring the security of grain in Africa and stabilizing the global grain price. The specific proposals include strengthening the agricultural virtual water trade, improving the level of water resources safety and food security, finding a reasonable positioning, optimizing the trade in China's non-agricultural products, strengthening the Sino African Trade and reducing Africa. Grain production water footprint, stabilizing the international market.

【学位授予单位】：甘肃农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.4;F323.7;F752.7

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