美国QE调整对中国跨境资本流动的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 00:00

本文选题：美国 + QE　；参考：《新疆财经大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年,随着雷曼兄弟的破产,源于美国的次贷危机开始席卷全球,世界各国经济受到严重影响。为了稳定金融市场,促进经济快速复苏,在传统货币政策对经济刺激无效的情况下,美国推出了量化宽松政策。长达七年的量化宽松政策释放出了大量流动性,它不仅拯救了美国经济,还会产生溢出效应进而引起其他国家跨境资本流入,对新兴市场国家的经济产生影响。本文就是在此背景下采用实证分析的研究方法,探究美国QE调整中国跨境资本流动的影响,最后提出相关政策建议。首先绪论章节阐述了本文的选题背景即在金融危机爆发后美国实施与退出QE对全球经济产生了巨大影响,以及本研究的学术意义和实际意义,介绍了国际资本流动的动因理论、流量理论、货币分析理论及其与政策制度关系理论等研究理论基础。然后对相关研究文献进行综述与评述,包括量化宽松政策的理论基础、关于量化宽松政策影响的研究以及关于量化宽松政策退出影响的研究这三个主要方面。接着介绍本文的研究思路、方法及框架安排,最后指出本文的创新与不足。在正文的内容方面,首先介绍美国实施量化宽松政策的背景及原因、回顾量化宽松政策的开展;研究了美国量化宽松政策的退出,分析美国退出QE的背景以及退出必要性、研究QE的退出步骤;探究了美国QE实施及退出期间国际跨境资本的流动情况,先分析整个国际资本的流动方向和趋势,又具体研究美国的跨境资本流动和新兴市场国家的跨境资本流动趋势,最后说明了美国QE实施及退出期间中国的国际资本流动情况,主要研究对象为资本和金融项目的变动、银行结售汇金额的变动以及银行代客跨境收付业务的情况,并对上述能够代表中国跨境资本流动的指标数据进行深入分析并得出规律。本篇文章的核心部分首先对美国货币政策对中国国际资本流动的具体影响因素进行了深入分析,主要包括:经济风险、流动性、利率、汇率以及经济增长和中国的资产价格等其他因素。在此基础上研究他们的变动方向并从中选择出了最重要的影响因素。然后将美国QE调整对中国国际资本流动的影响进行了实证分析,笔者把量化宽松实施及退出期间影响中国跨境资本流动的主要因素逐个进行分析并初步建立计量模型。由此笔者选取了中国资本金融账户的借方余额作为被解释变量,以此来表示中国跨境资本的流出;解释变量主要选取了以下四个:(1)美联储资产负债表中“持有的证券”项目的余额。购债是美国实施QE的主要手段之一,因此该变量能够反映美联储的购债情况。(2)美国联邦基金利率。美国QE期间一直将基准利率保持在低位,联邦基金利率是实施及退出量化宽松的最重要的货币政策工具。(3)QE退出预期。2013年美国发出即将退出QE的信号,此时正是由于QE的退出预期许多新兴市场国家遭遇了跨境资本大量外流的情况。(4)美国的货币供应量M2。美国的货币供应量M2能够反映美国的货币政策实施情况。其次,笔者经过搜集、整理和计算得到了上述变量的2007年一季度至今的季度数据,运用eviews7.2计量软件进行分析处理、实证检验,并运用了Johenson协整检验和格兰杰因果检验方法,最后对实证结果进行汇总分析、得出结论。结果显示美国QE调整通过利率渠道和流动性渠道对中国的跨境资本流动产生影响,并确定了资本流动的方向。结论和政策建议部分,从前面章节的研究结果出发,分析问题并针对如何避免跨境资本流动的剧烈波动提出相关政策建议,主要是针对中国的建议。提出相应对策以应对美国QE的调整,包括加快中国的经济结构产业化升级、加速推进利率市场化进程、推进人民币汇率形成机制、加强对跨境资金流动的双向监测以及加强国际金融合作。
[Abstract]:In 2008, with the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers, the subprime crisis of the United States began to sweep around the world, and the economies of all countries were seriously affected. In order to stabilize the financial market and promote the rapid economic recovery, the United States launched a quantitative easing policy for seven years in the case of the traditional monetary policy ineffective. There is a lot of liquidity, which not only saves the American economy, but also produces spillover effects and other countries' cross-border capital inflow, which has an impact on the economy of emerging market countries. In this context, this paper uses empirical analysis to explore the influence of American QE on the adjustment of cross-border capital flows in the United States and finally put forward relevant policies. The first chapter of the introduction expounds the background of this article, which is the great influence of the American implementation and withdrawal of QE on the global economy after the outbreak of the financial crisis, as well as the academic and practical significance of this study, and introduces the motivation theory of international capital flow, the theory of flow, the theory of monetary analysis and the relationship theory with the policy system. And then review and review the relevant research literature, including the theoretical basis of the quantitative easing policy, the research on the impact of quantitative easing policy and the study of the impact of the exit of quantitative easing policy, and then introduce the research ideas, methods and framework arrangements of this paper, and finally point out this article. In the content of the text, it first introduces the background and reasons of the implementation of the quantitative easing policy in the United States, reviews the development of quantitative easing policy, studies the withdrawal of quantitative easing policy in the United States, analyzes the background and necessity of withdrawal of the American QE, studies the exit steps of QE, and probes into the state of the implementation and withdrawal of QE in the United States. The flow of cross-border capital is analyzed first, the flow direction and trend of the whole international capital are analyzed, and the cross-border capital flows of the United States and the trend of cross-border capital flow in emerging market countries are specifically studied. Finally, the international capital flow situation in China during the implementation and withdrawal of QE in the United States is illustrated. The main object of this study is the capital and financial projects. Changes in the changes in the amount of the bank's exchange of foreign exchange as well as the situation of the bank's transboundary collection and payment, and a thorough analysis of the above indicators that can represent the cross-border capital flow in China. The core part of this article is first to make a thorough study of the specific influence factors of the American monetary policy on the flow of international capital in China. The analysis mainly includes: economic risk, liquidity, interest rate, exchange rate and other factors such as economic growth and China's asset price. On this basis, we study their change direction and choose the most important factors from it. Then, the author makes an empirical analysis of the impact of American QE adjustment on the international capital flow in China, and the author quantifies it. The main factors affecting China's cross-border capital flow during the period of looser implementation and withdrawal are analyzed and initially established. The author chooses the debit balance of China's capital financial account as an explanatory variable to indicate the outflow of China's cross-border capital; the explanatory variables are mainly selected as the following four: (1) the fed capital The balance of the "held securities" item in the balance sheet. Debt purchase is one of the main means to implement the QE in the United States, so the variable can reflect the Fed's debt purchase. (2) the U.S. federal fund rate. The US QE has kept the benchmark interest rate low during the United States, and the federal fund rate is the most important currency for implementing and withdrawing quantitative easing. Policy tools. (3) QE withdrawal from expected.2013, the United States issued a signal to exit the QE, this time is due to the withdrawal of QE in many emerging market countries encountered a large number of cross-border capital outflows. (4) the US monetary supply M2. US monetary supply M2 can reflect the implementation of the United States monetary policy. Secondly, the author Collecting, sorting and calculating the quarterly data of the first quarter of 2007, using eviews7.2 software for analysis and processing, empirical test, and using Johenson cointegration test and Grainger causality test method. Finally, the empirical results are summarized and analyzed, and the results show that American QE adjusted through the interest rate. Channels and liquidity channels have an impact on China's cross-border capital flows and determine the direction of capital flows. Conclusion and policy recommendations, from the results of the previous chapters, analyze the problems and put forward relevant policies and suggestions on how to avoid strenuous fluctuations in cross-border capital flows, mainly in view of China's proposals. The countermeasures should deal with the adjustment of QE in the United States, including accelerating the upgrading of China's economic structure industrialization, accelerating the process of interest rate marketization, promoting the formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate, strengthening two-way monitoring of cross-border capital flows and strengthening international financial cooperation.

【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6;F827.12

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