云南省城市生态系统安全动态预警研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 05:51

本文选题：生态系统安全 + 预警　；参考：《云南师范大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文以城市生态学,系统生态理论,生态环境承载理论等作为理论指导,参阅国内外相关研究成果,结合云南省实际省情以2011年-2014年为时间尺度,云南省16市州为空间尺度建构由水生态系统、大气生态系统、土地生态系统、生物生态系统、社会经济生态系统,5个子系统综合构建云南省城市生态系统安全动态预警评价指标体系。基于2011年-2015年云南省统计年鉴、各市州年鉴、环境公报等数据基础上收集预警评价指标原始数值,核查比对后根据研究需要依次进行预警评价指标标准化处理、熵值法权重确定、发展度预警评价值计算等,据此进行2011年-2014年云南省城市生态系统安全发展度预警评价和云南省16市州城市生态系统子系统安全发展度研究得出:(1)2011年-2014年云南省16市州城市生态系统安全预警综合评价值均位于中警预警区间,16市州城市生态系统服务功能较弱,系统协调性较差。(2)2011年云南省城市生态系统安全发展度呈正向发展(系统优化),属于I级绿灯无预警状态,系统结构在优化。2012年城市生态系统安全发展度呈逆向发展(系统恶化),属于II级蓝灯轻度预警状态,系统结构呈恶化趋势。2013年、2014年城市生态系统安全发展度处于临界变化。(3)2011年-2014年普洱市、昆明市、保山市城市生态系统处于持续逆向发展,其余市州正向发展持续性差。呈现每年城市生态系统安全发展度评价值正向发展的市州数和逆向发展的市州数各接近总数的1/2。(4)2011年-2014年云南省16市州城市生态系统子系统发展度预警空间格局变化中每年有1/2的市州城市水生态系统处于恶化状态,接近1/3的市州城市大气生态系统处于恶化状态,2013年有3/4市州城市大气生态系统处于恶化状态。城市土地生态系统恶化数由接近1/3的市州数逐渐变为1/2的市州在恶化。1/2的市州城市生物生态系统处于不断恶化状态,1/2的市州城市社会经济生态系统处于不断恶化状态。(5)2011年-2014年云南省城市生态系统安全发展度相关性分析,16市州城市生态系统子系统发展度相关性分析得出各市州,各子系统影响程度不一样。(6)相关性位序累积量可知2011年-2014年云南省城市生态系统安全发展度主要受大气生态系统和生物生态系统影响,其次为土地生态系统,水生态系统,社会经济生态系统。
[Abstract]:Under the guidance of urban ecology, system ecology theory and ecological environment bearing theory, this paper refers to the relevant research results at home and abroad, and takes 2011-2014 as the time scale in the light of the actual situation of Yunnan Province. The 16 prefectures of Yunnan Province are constructed by water ecosystem, atmosphere ecosystem, land ecosystem and biological ecosystem on a spatial scale. The index system of dynamic early warning and evaluation of urban ecosystem security in Yunnan Province is constructed by five subsystems. Based on the statistical yearbooks of Yunnan Province from 2011 to 2015, the yearbooks of cities and prefectures, and environmental bulletins, the original values of early warning evaluation indicators are collected and processed according to the needs of research. The weight of entropy method is determined, and the evaluation value of development degree is calculated. Based on this, the early warning evaluation of urban ecosystem security development degree in Yunnan Province from 2011 to 2014 and the study on the security development degree of urban ecosystem subsystem in 16 prefectures of Yunnan Province are carried out. The comprehensive evaluation values of the police are all located in the warning interval of the Central Police. The service function of urban ecosystem is weak in the 16 cities. In 2011, the development degree of urban ecosystem safety in Yunnan Province was positively developed (system optimization, which belongs to class I green light without warning, The system structure is optimized. In 2012, the development degree of urban ecosystem security is in reverse development (the system deteriorated and belongs to the light warning state of class II blue lamp). In 2013, the development degree of urban ecosystem security in 2014 was in the critical change.) from 2011 to 2014, Pu'er City, Kunming City and Baoshan City were in continuous reverse development, while the other cities were developing badly. Evaluation value of the degree of Urban ecosystem Security Development each year: the number of city states in positive direction and the number of cities in reverse development are close to 1 / 2 / 2 / 4 of the total number respectively) the spatial pattern of early warning of the development degree of urban ecosystem subsystems in 16 prefectures of Yunnan Province from 2011 to 2014 has changed. A quarter of the city's urban water ecosystem is in a state of deterioration every year. Nearly a third of the cities' urban atmospheric ecosystems are in a state of deterioration, compared with three out of four in 2013. The number of urban land ecosystem degradation has gradually changed from nearly a third of the city states to one second of the city states, and one second of the city states are in a deteriorating state of urban biological ecosystems, and one percent of the city states are in a deteriorating state of the city's social and economic ecosystems, and the city's social and economic ecosystems are deteriorating. The correlation Analysis of Urban ecosystem Security Development degree in Yunnan Province from 2011 to 2014; the correlation analysis of the development degree of urban ecosystem subsystem in 16 prefectures of Yunnan Province, The accumulative amount of relative sequence shows that the degree of safe development of urban ecosystem in Yunnan Province from 2011 to 2014 is mainly influenced by atmospheric ecosystem and biological ecosystem, followed by land ecosystem and water ecosystem. Social and economic ecosystem.
【学位授予单位】：云南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X21

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