考虑时序特性的电力系统随机生产模拟

发布时间：2018-05-09 14:23

本文选题：随机生产模拟 + 多状态机组模型　；参考：《合肥工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着新能源产业的快速发展,风电场和光伏电站的随机性、间歇性和波动性对电力系统规划运行和安全经济运行产生了巨大的影响,从而对电力系统随机生产模拟的准确性和灵敏性提出了更高的要求。因此,本文先介绍了随机生产模拟的经济技术指标和实现方法,并分析了基于持续负荷曲线的随机生产模拟方法的不足。针对传统随机生产模拟方法忽略负荷及新能源时序特性,不能考虑系统和机组运行约束,不便获得机组冷、热启动次数和动态成本等问题,本文对考虑时序特性的电力系统随机生产模拟方法展开了研究。首先,针对负荷及新能源出力的时序特性,以及常规火电机组的不同运行状态(如降额、间歇、连续)和分段情况,本文建立了时序负荷模型和多状态机组模型。其中,时序负荷模型提取了负荷的频率转移信息;多状态机组模型考虑了机组的爬坡时间限制、启动失败概率及最小开停机时间限制。另外,本文介绍了机组条件强迫停运率的概念及计算方法,并分析了其与传统的强迫停运率的区别。其次,在前述负荷与机组模型的基础上,本文提出了一种考虑负荷与新能源时序特性的电力系统随机生产模拟方法。该方法引入了系统爬坡和旋转备用容量约束,并给出了系统约束中各参数的修正方法。为提高新能源的接纳量,降低系统的燃料成本,本文以优先接纳风、光为前提,在满足系统约束的条件下,按单位燃料成本较小的火电机组优先投运的原则来确定机组的投运顺序,并根据机组的运行情况进行等值负荷曲线的卷积运算,最终获得系统的各项经济技术指标。再次,本文对考虑负荷与新能源时序特性的随机生产模拟方法进行了详细地分析。为了验证该方法的正确性与有效性,将该方法与等效电量函数法的结果作了比较,并采用控制变量法说明了考虑机组运行因素的必要性。同时,文中还单独分析了负荷、风电、光伏发电的时序特性对随机生产模拟的影响。最后,为考虑风、光及负荷预测出力的不确定性,本文将蒙特卡洛模拟法与解析法相结合,建立了一种考虑风光荷不确定性的随机生产模拟方法,并分别分析了风电、光伏发电、负荷预测出力不确定性对随机生产模拟的影响。文中首先采用模拟法对风、光、负荷时序出力的预测误差进行抽样,并经计算获得含风光荷不确定性的净负荷曲线各统计参数的分布函数,然后进行等值负荷的卷积运算和生产模拟。为验证本文所提方法的实际应用价值,文中以我国某省实际电网为例,对电网的风电接纳能力和弃风情况进行了评估。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of new energy industry, the randomness, intermittency and volatility of wind farm and photovoltaic power station have a great impact on the planning and operation of power system and safe economic operation. Therefore, the accuracy and sensitivity of stochastic production simulation of power system are required higher. Therefore, this paper first introduces the economic and technical indexes and implementation methods of stochastic production simulation, and analyzes the shortage of stochastic production simulation method based on continuous load curve. In view of the traditional stochastic production simulation method neglecting the load and new energy timing characteristics, the system and unit operation constraints can not be considered, and it is inconvenient to obtain the cooling, hot start times and dynamic cost of the unit, etc. In this paper, the stochastic production simulation method of power system considering time series characteristics is studied. Firstly, according to the time series characteristics of load and new energy output, as well as the different operation state (such as reducing, intermittent, continuous) and segmentation of conventional thermal power units, this paper establishes a sequential load model and a multi-state unit model. The time-series load model extracts the frequency transfer information of the load, and the multi-state unit model takes into account the run-up time limit, start-up failure probability and minimum start-up and downtime limit. In addition, this paper introduces the concept and calculation method of conditional forced outage rate, and analyzes the difference between it and the traditional forced outage rate. Secondly, on the basis of the above load and unit model, this paper presents a stochastic production simulation method for power system considering load and new energy timing characteristics. In this method, the system climbing and rotating reserve capacity constraints are introduced, and the method of modifying the parameters in the system constraints is given. In order to increase the intake of new energy and reduce the fuel cost of the system, this paper is based on the premise of preferential admission wind and light, under the condition of satisfying the system constraints. According to the principle of preferential operation of thermal power units with low unit fuel cost, the operation sequence of units is determined, and the convolution operation of equivalent load curves is carried out according to the operating conditions of the units. Finally, various economic and technical indexes of the system are obtained. Thirdly, the stochastic production simulation method considering load and new energy timing characteristics is analyzed in detail. In order to verify the correctness and validity of the method, the results of the method are compared with the results of the equivalent power function method, and the necessity of considering the operation factors of the unit is explained by using the control variable method. At the same time, the influence of time series characteristics of load, wind power and photovoltaic on stochastic production simulation is analyzed separately. Finally, in order to consider the uncertainty of wind, light and load forecasting forces, a stochastic production simulation method considering the uncertainty of wind load is established by combining Monte Carlo simulation method with analytical method, and wind power generation is analyzed separately. Photovoltaic power generation, load forecasting force uncertainty on the impact of stochastic production simulation. In this paper, the prediction error of wind, light and load time series is sampled by the simulation method, and the distribution function of the statistical parameters of the net load curve with uncertainty of wind load is obtained by calculation. Then the equivalent load convolution operation and production simulation. In order to verify the practical application value of the method proposed in this paper, an example of the actual power grid of a province in China is given to evaluate the wind power acceptance and abandonment of the power grid.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TM743

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