我国影子银行对商业银行体系稳定性的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 22:03

本文选题：商业银行 + 我国影子银行体系　；参考：《西南财经大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：2015年3月,河北最大的担保公司河北融投担保集团陷入破产重组的窘境,由其担保的500多亿债权的担保责任因而暂时悬置。此次多米诺骨牌式的担保风波涉及到了信托、银行、券商、基金和P2P等50家机构,纷纷陷入兑付危机的窘境。河北融投的身陷囹圄令人不得不关注我国影子银行的违约风险。事实上,类似河北融投的国内很多信托产品都是通过银行渠道进行分销的,并且在把这些产品推销给投资者时说成是能够替代传统存款的高收益理财产品。有着商业银行充当后盾,投资者自然放松警惕,忽视了投资风险而选择这类影子银行产品。在利率市场化进程加快、信贷收缩以及我国金融抑制的背景下,国内影子银行得到了适宜的生存土壤,其规模在近几年呈现出井喷式增长。中国社科院报告称,2014年我国影子银行规模高达27万亿元人民币,约占我国银行体系总资产的20%。而同年金融稳定理事会(FSB)也声称,中国影子银行的规模在全球中排名第三。我国影子银行的发展时间之短但速度之快令人忧喜参半。因为影子银行的发展就像一把双刃剑,一方面,影子银行能够通过灵活多变的借贷活动与传统银行竞争,拓展国内投融资渠道,在一定程度上缓解了信贷供给不足和融资需求旺盛的矛盾。同时,影子银行的发展也为我国金融体系注入新鲜血液,促进金融结构优化调整,带动经济发展,推动利率市场化进程。另一方面,影子银行作为新生事物,又有其风险的内生性,规避监管的同时通过信用扩张而降低了货币政策效果,影响了我国商业银行稳定性,甚至给整个金融体系的健康发展埋下一定的安全隐患。由于影子银行业务的交叉性和隐蔽性,我们不能直接观测到其准确规模,因而也不能预估其蕴藏的具体风险。随着我国经济增速放缓,人民币进入加速贬值通道,股市一蹶不振,信用违约频发,国际社会也紧盯中国影子银行的发展,甚至唱衰中国金融体系。然而中国政府对此似乎胜券在握,在去年的政府工作报告中称今后将加强对影子银行的监管。基于对影子银行话题的兴趣以及对我国银行体系甚至金融体系稳定性的关注,本文拟就目前中国影子银行发展的相关数据进行实证研究。探究我国影子银行对商业银行体系的影响方式及影响程度,为相关研究和决策提供参考。本文主要包括六部分,文章结构和研究思路如下：第一章是绪论,首先阐述了本文的选题背景和研究意义,然后对国内外影子银行的相关理论和文献进行回顾和梳理。明确本文采用了定性分析和实证分析相结合的研究方法。指出本文可能的两个创新点：一是使用面板数据,克服了影子银行样本量少的缺陷；二是在测算影子银行规模时采用较窄的统计口径,这部分影子银行业务与商业银行联系紧密,更有研究价值。第二章是研究的理论基础,首先包括影子银行及影子银行体系的概述,总结了国内外对影子银行的概念和分类的界定,初步分析了我国影子银行的特点及风险。然后对商业银行稳定性基本理论进行探讨,概述前人对银行稳定性的评估方法,并分析了影子银行对商业银行稳定性影响的作用机制,为后面的实证研究打基础。第三章根据第二章对影子银行概念的界定和类型的划分,在参考现有研究成果的基础上,确定了本文所讨论的基于较窄口径的影子银行业务,包括银行理财产品、委托贷款、信托贷款和未贴现的银行承兑汇票。这四部分的影子银行业务的共同特点是,都与传统商业银行联系紧密,可以归类为传统银行内部的影子银行业务,因此对于研究影子银行对商业银行体系的影响更具有参考价值。在确定了我国影子银行统计口径的基础上,本章分析了银行理财产品、委托贷款、信托贷款和未贴现的银行承兑汇票的发展现状,并分别测算了它们的规模。最后通过加总计算出2002-2015年我国影子银行的绝对规模,为后面实证所需的影子银行相对规模提供数据基础。第四章则是在前文对商业银行稳定性理论研究的基础上,考虑商业银行多重影响因素,并结合我国实际情况,选取了三个方面共计11项指标进行分析。分别包括以GDP增长率等3项指标为代表的宏观经济因素、以M2增长率等3项指标为代表金融环境因素,和以资本充足率和不良贷款率等5项指标为代表的银行运营状况。采用“指标映射区间打分法”计算出单项指标得分,再按照三大类指标分别占20%、30%、50%的权重加权平均计算出2000-2015年间我国商业银行稳定性综合指数。第五章首先从正反两面着手,定性分析了我国影子银行对商业银行体系稳定性的影响。然后根据前两章统计测算出的我国影子银行规模和商业银行稳定性综合指数进行实证分析。在实证分析部分,本文选取2002-2015年我国影子银行相对规模(影子银行绝对规模/GDP)作为解释变量,选取我国17家主要商业银行稳定性综合指数作为被解释变量,另外还添加了GDP增长率、M2增长率以及CPI指数作为控制变量,以及滞后一期的影子银行相对规模作为滞后项,通过面板数据模型,利用Eviews计量软件进行回归分析。第六章在定性分析及实证研究的基础上得出本文的结论,并基于结论提出相应的政策建议。本文的主要结论是,在我国目前的金融环境下,利率市场化改革尚未完成,融资结构比较单一,金融机构的多元化程度不足,狭义的影子银行业务对银行稳定性有促进作用。因为其可以作为传统银行信贷的补充,有效缓解中小企业融资难题,提高资金利用效率,推进我国利率市场化进程；同时拓展了商业银行的表外业务,扩大了银行中间业务收入,为银行的业务创新提供了动力。但是从长期来看,影子银行的发展会导致银行脱媒现象加剧,对银行传统业务的盈利能力和议价能力产生冲击,而且影子银行会削弱国家的宏观调控政策效果,弱化监管当局对于商业银行的监管效果。并且由于狭义影子银行使用银行渠道和银行资源开展业务,一旦发生风险会通过业务链直接或间接传导给银行,这些都会削弱银行的稳定性。所以对待我国影子银行,既不能消极回避,盲目抑制,也不能放任不管,任其发展。应从我国实际情况出发,因势利导,趋利避害,引导影子银行有序地服务于社会公众和企业的投融资需求。在撰写本文期间,笔者通过阅读大量的文献资料,针对影子银行问题提出有实际意义的观点和建议。但限于研究水平和文笔能力,笔者在表述某些观点时难免显得粗浅,还请老师在阅读过程中多多包涵指正。
[Abstract]:In March 2015, Hebei's largest Guarantee Corporation, Hebei Rong investment security group, fell into the dilemma of bankruptcy restructuring, and the security responsibility for about 50000000000 of its secured claims was temporarily suspended. The Domino style security turmoil involved trust, banks, securities firms, funds and P2P and other 50 institutions, falling into the predicament of the cash crisis. Hebei melted In fact, many of the domestic trust products, similar to Hebei, are distributed through bank channels and are sold to investors as a high-yield financial product that can replace traditional deposits. In the background of the acceleration of the interest rate marketization process, the credit contraction and the financial restraining of our country, the domestic shadow banks have obtained the suitable survival soil in the recent years. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences reported that in 2014, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences reported that The size of the country's shadow bank is up to 27 trillion yuan, accounting for about 20%. of the total assets of the banking system in China and the financial stability Council (FSB) in the same year claimed that the size of the shadow Bank of China ranked third in the world. On the one hand, the shadow bank can compete with traditional banks through flexible and changeable lending activities and expand the domestic investment and financing channels. To a certain extent, it alleviates the contradiction between the shortage of credit supply and the exuberant financing demand. At the same time, the development of the shadow bank also injects fresh blood to the financial system of our country, and promotes the optimization and adjustment of the financial structure. On the other hand, as a new thing, the shadow bank, as a new thing, has its endogeneity of risk, evading supervision and reducing the effect of monetary policy through credit expansion, affecting the stability of our commercial banks, and even burying certain security risks for the healthy development of the whole financial system. With the cross and concealment of the shadow banking business, we can not directly observe its accurate scale, and therefore can not predict its specific risks. As China's economic growth slows down, the RMB enters the accelerated devaluation channel, the stock market has fallen down, the credit default is frequent, and the international society is also stating the development of the Chinese shadow bank and even sings down. China's financial system. However, the Chinese government seems to be a winner. In the government work report last year, it said it would strengthen the shadow banking regulation. Based on the interest in the topic of shadow banking and the attention to the stability of the banking system and even the financial system in China, the relevant data on the development of China's shadow banking are proposed. This paper mainly includes six parts, the article structure and the research ideas are as follows: the first chapter is the introduction, first of all, the background and significance of this paper are expounded, and then the shadow banking at home and abroad is discussed. The relevant theories and literature are reviewed and reviewed. It is clear that this paper uses the combination of qualitative analysis and empirical analysis. It points out the two possible innovations in this paper: first, the use of panel data to overcome the shortcomings of the small sample size of the shadow bank; and the two is to use a narrower statistical caliber in the measurement of the size of the shadow bank, this part The second chapter is the theoretical basis of the research. Firstly, it includes the outline of shadow banking and shadow banking system, summarizes the definition of the concept and classification of shadow banking both at home and abroad, and preliminarily analyzes the characteristics and risks of the shadow banking in China. Then, the stability of the commercial banks. The basic theory is discussed, the former evaluation method of bank stability is summarized, and the effect mechanism of shadow bank on the stability of commercial banks is analyzed. The third chapter is based on the definition and classification of the concept of shadow banking according to the second chapter, and on the basis of the existing research results, it is determined. The shadow banking business based on the narrower caliber is discussed in this paper, including bank financial products, entrustment loans, trust loans and non discounted bank acceptance bills. The common characteristics of these four parts are that they are closely related to the traditional commercial banks and can be classified as the shadow banking business within the traditional banks. This chapter analyses the development status of bank financial products, entrusted loans, trust loans and non discounted bank acceptance drafts on the basis of determining the statistical caliber of China's shadow banks, and calculates their scale respectively. Finally, the total calculation of 2002- is calculated. The absolute scale of China's shadow banking in 2015 provides a data base for the relative size of the shadow banking required by the latter. The fourth chapter is on the basis of the research on the stability theory of commercial banks, considering the multiple factors of commercial banks, and combining with the actual situation of our country, the three aspects are selected to be analyzed in a total number of 11 indicators. The macro economic factors represented by 3 indexes such as GDP growth rate are represented by 3 indexes such as the growth rate of M2, and the bank operation status represented by 5 indexes, such as the capital adequacy ratio and the bad loan rate, etc., using the "index mapping interval scoring method" to calculate the score of the single index, and then according to the three categories. The weight weighted average of 20%, 30% and 50% respectively calculates the stability comprehensive index of China's commercial banks in 2000-2015 years. The fifth chapter begins with both positive and negative sides, and analyzes the influence of the shadow banking on the stability of the commercial bank system in China. Then the size of the shadow banking and the stability of the commercial banks in China are calculated according to the first two chapters. In the empirical analysis, this paper selects the relative scale of shadow banking (/GDP) as an explanatory variable in 2002-2015 years, and selects the 17 main commercial banks' stability index as the explanatory variable, and also adds the GDP growth rate, the M2 growth rate and the CPI index. As a control variable and the lag phase of the relative size of the shadow bank as a lagging item, the regression analysis is carried out by the Eviews measurement software through the panel data model. The sixth chapter draws the conclusion of this paper on the basis of qualitative analysis and empirical research, and puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions based on the conclusion. The main conclusion of this paper is in our country. Under the current financial environment, the reform of the interest rate marketization has not been completed, the financing structure is relatively simple, the diversification of the financial institutions is insufficient. The narrow sense of the shadow banking business can promote the stability of the bank. Because it can be used as a supplement to the traditional bank credit, it can effectively alleviate the financing problems of small and medium-sized enterprises, improve the efficiency of capital utilization and promote the utilization of funds. The process of interest rate marketization in China has expanded the off balance sheet business of commercial banks, expanded the middle business income of the bank, and provided the impetus for the bank's business innovation. However, in the long run, the development of the shadow bank will lead to the aggravation of the disintermediation of the bank, the impact on the profitability and bargaining power of the traditional banking business, and the shadow of the shadow banking. The sub bank weakens the effect of the country's macroeconomic control policy and weakens the regulatory effect of the regulatory authorities on commercial banks. And because the narrow shadow banks use banking channels and bank resources to carry out business, once the risks will be directly or indirectly transmitted to the banks through the business chain, these will weaken the stability of the banks. The shadow Bank of the country can neither be passive avoidance, blind restraint, nor let it be allowed to develop. We should proceed from the actual situation of our country, take advantage of the situation, lead the shadow bank to serve the public and the enterprises' investment and financing demand in order. During the writing of this article, I read a large number of documents and aimed at the shadow bank. There are practical points and suggestions. But limited to the level of study and the ability to write, the author seems to be superficial when I express some views, and ask the teacher to correct more in the process of reading.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.3

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