我国地方政府债券的最适规模和债务效益研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 23:09

本文选题：债务困境 + 地方债券　；参考：《陕西科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国分税制的改革和市场经济的深化,地方政府的财政资金的缺口越来越大,地方政府不得不通过融资平台大量举债。最新数据显示,2015年地方债务余额高达16万亿,其中15.4万亿是2014年以前的存量,仅有1万多亿是人大批准过的,其余都不合规的债务。巨大的债务压力引起了一片恐慌,国家紧急出台政策整顿地方融资平台的不合规的举债行为。为了给地方经济注入新的活力,同时防范隐性债务风险,地方政府债券开始走入中国市场,帮助地方政府拓宽融资渠道,缓解资金压力。从2009年到2016年我国地方债券的发行逐步放开,到目前为止各省级政府都有自主发行地方债券权利,但发行规模还需受中央的限额管理。所以预测地方债券的最适规模成为当前研究最重要、最迫切的问题。只有消除中央对于地方债券规模风险的忧虑,地方债券的发行才能实现真正意义的市场化。本文就是在此背景下展开对地方债券的研究,借助资产负债表法和修正的KMV模型,建立了地方债券最适规模的非线性预测模型。通过分析我国地方债券偏离最优安全规模程度以及调整优化的成本,实证考察地方债券发行规模的动态调整机制。并进一步挖掘地方债券的债务效益,基于增量分析法,在上述计量模型的基础上反推出地方债券带来的经济和社会效益,实现债务效益的量化评价。这也是本文一大创新点,即建立了一个既可以预测地方债券发行规模又能进行债务效益评价的计量模型,为以后相关研究和政府决策提供借鉴的思路。研究发现,KMV模型的两大修正——流动资产和转移系数都在某种程度上放大了地方债券的最优安全发债规模。但是地方债券发行量不仅仅取决于最优安全发债规模,还与上一年地方债券发行量和调整优化的成本有关,所以地方债券的最适发债规模预测值并没有放大,是符合实际的。地方债券发行不仅能为居民带来社会效益而且为企业、地方政府和地区发展带来经济效益,所以发行地方债券是解决目前债务困境的最佳方式,是现代财税制度的必然要求,更是社会和谐发展、人民安居乐业的必然选择。
[Abstract]:With the reform of the tax distribution system and the deepening of the market economy, the gap of the local government's financial funds is increasing, and the local government has to borrow a large amount of debt through the financing platform. According to the latest data, the balance of local debt reached 16 trillion in 2015, of which 15.4 trillion were pre-2014 stocks, with just over one billion approved by the NPC and the rest of the unruly debt. Huge debt pressures have caused panic, and the country has urgently put in place policies to clean up substandard borrowing by local financing vehicles. In order to inject new vitality into the local economy and guard against the risk of implicit debt, local government bonds began to enter the Chinese market to help local governments broaden financing channels and ease the financial pressure. From 2009 to 2016, the issuance of local bonds in China has been gradually liberalized. Up to now, all provincial governments have the right to issue local bonds independently, but the size of issuance still needs to be managed by the central authorities. Therefore, predicting the optimal size of local bonds has become the most important and urgent issue. Only by eliminating the central concern about the risk of local bond scale can the issuance of local bonds realize the marketization of real meaning. In this context, this paper studies the local bonds and establishes a nonlinear forecasting model for the optimal size of local bonds by using the balance sheet method and the modified KMV model. Based on the analysis of the degree of deviation from the optimal safety scale and the cost of adjustment and optimization, the dynamic adjustment mechanism of local bond issuance scale is investigated empirically. And further excavate the debt benefit of the local bond, based on the increment analysis method, on the basis of the above metrological model, the economic and social benefits brought by the local bond are put forward, and the quantitative evaluation of the debt benefit is realized. This is also one of the innovations of this paper, that is, to establish a quantitative model that can predict the size of local bond issuance and evaluate the debt benefit, which can provide a reference for related research and government decision-making in the future. It is found that the two major modifications of KMV model, current assets and transfer coefficients, to some extent magnify the optimal safe issuance of local bonds. But the amount of local bond issuance depends not only on the optimal size of safe bond issuance, but also on the amount of local bond issuance and the cost of adjusting the optimization, so the forecast value of the optimal local bond issuance size is not enlarged, which is realistic. Local bond issuance can not only bring social benefits to residents, but also bring economic benefits to enterprises, local governments and regional development. Therefore, issuing local bonds is the best way to solve the current debt distress and is an inevitable requirement of the modern fiscal and taxation system. Is the social harmonious development, the people live and work in peace and contentment inevitable choice.
【学位授予单位】：陕西科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.5

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